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I’m not necessarily sure there will be a deal in the next 2 or 3 months here. Lithium price so low thar colin would probably want to see an uptick later in the year before a potential sale. He also sounded pretty keen to get luansobe up and running with a partner by September rather than selling it . Shinganda needs to be explored further to achieve value. So maybe the Kalahari the most likely ?

Don’t think this is a bad thing as we have cashetts just don’t see an imminent asset sale

Maybe but they don’t need cash to build or operate the mine and that’s a very important point. I’m sure a number of partners are interested in making money on this so there will be competitive tension to make a good deal. Imho and good luck all shareholders- as with the vast majority of resource stocks atm patience is needed.

The Ongombo mine build will be non equity funded by means of a partner as has already been stated a few times.

Thanks analytical - those maps are very encouraging for the xtr Zambia licenses , interesting that Ivanhoe took a chunk of Angola to the west as well. Rio and Anglo in the mix as well

Ig is showing 750k shares traded which is quite a lot for afp

I’m not too bothered about the share price at the moment on Glr, we don’t have to raise money and if people are missing it then add when you can if you see the potential. When the deals happen it will be clear enough.

If investors are reluctant due to Bushranger I get it , personally it’s allowed me to add quite a lot between 1p and 1.2p

Indaba next week let’s see what that brings

Xtr is an exploration company, it was when people invested in bushranger . The only way we get back to 4p plus (which I know a lot of current shareholders sit at minimum) is by exploring and finding something big.

Nw Zambia is where it is right now and Colin is very well connected . There is a window that won’t be open for ever - let’s see another license or two up there. It’s better to focus management time on that than haggling with mmp in Mozambique.

The deal gets my vote - let’s get busy finding a very big lump of copper. Well done to Colin getting the mine built and getting $16m plus cash out of it, a few years ago we were scrabbling to keep the lights on with a couple of hundred grand from the alluviales. Onwards and upwards.

One thing is that the multi baggers have been very rare in the last 18 months - this sort of new flow in 21 probably would have had us at 2p plus. PIS are under a lot of financial strain and small profits are realised wherever possible . AIM generally on its knees.

The game changer will be a large asset sale, substantial cash banked or takeover for a minnow by a major in the resources space . Not talking about jvs etc . That would massively increase market sentiment for everyone in this space.

And if you look at the potential valuation of the 4 core assets here (Kalahari kamativi shinganda luansobe) it’s a conservative £150- £200m which is 10p plus

Fair to say Iky that it’s ridiculously undervalued at c £14m market cap? We have c £5m in cash!

I personally hadn’t even been focusing much on the kalahari here and that alone could easily be multiples of the current price.

If Colin did a good deal on one of the assets in the next month or two it could easily be 3p plus

More goodies in the Kalahari

It is partly about risk appetite - maybe this the wrong way to look at it, but I see sticking with Manica could only ever get us back up to 2 or 2.5p eventually imo. It won't ever get us to 5 or 6p plus which I want to see a proper profit from holding xtr stock for so long.

In reality we have yet to see anything like an annualised profit of even $4m let alone $5 or $6m and perhaps there is a big argument going on as to how thee opex is arrived at. The current deal is opaque and open to interpretation imo and therefore open to plenty of risk also.

if we had been shown as of todays date that we are actually banking $4-$5m NET profit from our 23% at Manica then it would be a different matter and the staged $16m wouldn't look appealing.

Good post from JDAU's and I that we need more detail on the potential of any future investments outside Manica, where and how much - a 2 or 3 year plan effectively - to make a properly informed decision.

In answer to Prickly (part 1):

I've had to think this through quite a lot. My thinking is that the deal for 23% of profit after opex (not 23% of income as has been incorrectly stated here many times) is not a great one for XTR mainly because it is opaque and debatable and for example what is capex and what is opex. It could be a non stop wrangle for the next few years.

A deal like Empress with a % off the top would be much preferable and surely the way to go on any future deal (or half off the top, half off the bottom!) - but we don't have that. But worth remembering that MMP not xtr built the mine for $10-$20m hence their keeping the lions share.

We are dealing with MMP a local co in Mozambique with probably little visibility on day to day ops. Grades are uneven and my understanding is that the "easy bit" of the mine has a couple of years left max. It was never going to be straight line $4-5m profit per annum for 7 years.

Manica would then need significant capex to address different ore types and areas, lets say another $10m for argument sake. MMP are not just going to pay for that and roll forward the 23% deal. XTR would have to stump up a proportion - I'm guessing the time for making a decision on that is close hence a deal discussion.

$16m equates to 3 to 4 good years net profit for XTR nailed down and no requirement to find significant capital for phase 2. If they don't pay on schedule we get the license back if I understand.

Its not an amazing deal but I think its OK if we put the money to good use - ok there's a question mark there!

1. personally I don't want anything more spent on drilling bushranger until copper goes past $10k + and I think most of us agree on that. Colin has confirmed no more drilling.

2. He does have very good connections in Zambia and a couple of well placed licenses in the NW which is the copper future I believe, I would like to see him add in that area with some of these funds and explore the ones we already have.

3. I would like a distribution of a part of the $16m ( say $4million) as some form of dividend so some cash is returned to shareholders. I am not sure currently how this can be achieved.

On balance I would rather have the cash figures confirmed now and drawn down regularly to target some good prospects in zambia, particularly the NW. IF the time ever came to do something with Bushranger we have cash.

if the deal gets rejected we sit with an unknowable $ profit share and a need to raise a chunk of cash to carry on to phase 2 probably quite soon. If we don't want to or can't raise it I'm not sure what happens. Wish it was $20m or 25 of course but as it stands we could be well placed to focus more profitably elsewhere.

Not an easy call but we are getting $16m pretty much guaranteed without having built a plant and the timing could be very good for investment elsewhere.

This is glr board but ok, at no point did I ever say I want more spent on BR (so why say that) , I don't, it was a big big disappointment. If we ever get to $11k copper it would be a different story potentially.

There are other investment opportunities out there and especially in Zambia. I would also definitely like a special dividend from the $16m though if that is technically possible.

Anyway this is GLR and there are a number of really good project and a couple of them close to a deal it sounds like. Look at the RNS here and the grades are NOT marginal from the data we have, if that changes we reassess. If you made your mind up tho fair enough and you know where the door is. If all you do is complain in life you won't get anywhere.

And in terms of manica the mine was built by mmp not xtr and the current easily accessible resource is getting depleted. Further capex and therefore cash needed for the next stage - I’m glad that uncertainty is off the table.

3 card you need to find a share you can be more enthusiastic about - Glr assets and Bushranger are very different

Hopefully this rns is just a jab and the knockout blow to follow pretty quick with an asset sale .

Confidence in Colin clearly at an all time low with people selling at .9p wow.

He has just pretty much banked $16m over the next 3 years with the market cap at £8m or so.

I’ve already averaged down as much as I can or want to but that is seriously cheap now.

I suppose it will only change if he shows he can still pull off a deal or two, maybe in one of his other’s companies GLR AFP etc

It would be revealed in an RNS though wouldn’t it

There were some quite chunky trades today wasn’t quite sure if they were buys , sounds like it was partly you coyote 👍

Good points of shinganda , it is looking v promising - hadn’t considered it first in line for an asset sale though as more work could really enlarge the value - either way looking very good