Member Info for cyan2

"We are producing 100 bpd at HH, so why not 1.3bln MC ??"

Answer; Its a crazy valuation when you compare to a regional player like GENEL.

Genels Taq Taq field has been mentioned before on this BB. Its just part of their portfolio .

GENL produces about 33,000 barrels per day and has a market cap of circa £446m .

Frankly speaking; there are some pretty ludicrous numbers being predicted for UKOG. No-one seems to have even considered failure in Resan as a possible scenario.

Good afternoon luckystrike.
I note your comment "Shorts must be on fire after the recent rise"

This has been an oft repeated claim as UKOG has been on a general downward trajectory for years, partly due to enormous share based fund raises;

FYI here are some numbers to consider;
Last 4 years fund raises;

19.5.17 £6.5m placing
15.11.17 £10m loan
15.6.18 £5.5m Placing
2.7.18 £5m placing
4.7.18 £2m placing
27.3.19 £3.5m placing
7.8.19 £5.5m loan
2.12.19 £2m placing
28.4. 20 £1.275m placing
4.6.20 £ 4.2m placing
2.10.20 £2.2m placing

Total £47. 675m
And very soon; more shares will be created.

Traders have made some money, BUT ,UKOG has not proved to be a great for long term holders;

Good luck with your strategy .

I have given instructions to cast my several votes against Moody MacDonald

Would the Turkish government be hard nosed about the by 27th June date?
More than likely they will give an extension.

The interesting question is; how do the Turkish decision makers view UKOG's application for further licences having watched them struggle with finance to get their first well away on time.

There were others also applying for the licences; so would UKOG's poor delivery performance affect the decisions?

If everything is going to plan; why do they need working capital in the "near" future?

As for the 27th June date and what may or may not happen if the drill has not commenced; I do not know what consequences may follow.

That's a very good alternative reason Ocelot.

Though ,you would have thought UKOG would have updated everyone to that effect if it was that case.

If we look back to what UKOG published when announcing the Turkish deal they wrote;

Forward Plans

"The first commitment well, currently planned to appraise and flow test the Basur oil discovery, must commence drilling before 27 June 2021. Drilling and seismic are therefore expected to commence before the end of this year, Covid, weather and Turkish governmental transaction approval permitting."

'MUST commence drilling BEFORE 27th June 2021'

Looks urgent to me. No sign of the drill yet and the only logical reason is that AME are awaiting a cash payment from UKOG.

Good afternoon Ocelot

You wrote; "..the next fundraise looks as if it is being choreographed, to follow the spud and initial drilling of Basur-3."

I respectfully disagree. UKOG published this when asking for support in the GM;

"In order to deliver the Company's stated strategy and growth objectives, it will require further funds in the near future for, amongst other things, its funding obligations under the agreed work programme for the Resan Licence and any of the new Licence applications should they be awarded to the Company and its partner. "

'its funding obligations' in Resan I think refers to paying for the drill.

There is no sign of the drill yet.

Good afternoon Mirasol
You wrote;
"You know, we know , they know it's as dead as a Dodo but they won't say so - until they do expect people to keep flagging its a lie"

And here is the proof;

19th April 2019 UKOG in their Loxley planning submission UKOG stated that ;

"Flow tests and pressure data from the Broadford Bridge and Horse Hill Wells Sites have been sub-commercial.."

Yet........ just 5 months on and we have this BS from SS;

12.9.2019 Sanderson stated;

"Meanwhile, the Kimmeridge continues to produce solidly and beyond our technical expectations, which bodes extremely well for the future Kimmeridge development at Horse Hill and elsewhere in our licences in the Weald Basin."

Sanderson has lost credibility.

Everyone with common sense will understand that if The Kimmeridge had any serious value ; UKOG would not be 'rolling the dice' in Turkey.

What's going on NOW? Confidence will erode as long as UKOG remain silent regarding the urgently needed fund raise.

Good morning Ocelot.

You make a perfectly reasonable observation;

But; if we look back to the AGM ;

At the AGM the two directors up for re-election ; (Howard & Morzaria) got circa 567 m votes each.

With the rebels holding 863 m plus votes , the directors HOWARD & MORZARIA must be worried that , if put to a vote, they are likely to struggle to retain their seats.

Will people go out of their way to vote FOR H & M?

As for Sanderson......?

Sanderson must be a bit concerned especially as the rebels have made further progress as announced this morning;

Shareholder support as of 9am 16th June 2021

118 shareholders supporting the cause

863,159,545 shares, representing 6.53% of UKOG shares

" how about a comment on "why are the uninvested so concerned,they've got nothing to lose" ......without another history lesson please."

Because I have seen unscrupulous rampers and Sanderson with ridiculous claims lead many inexperienced investors to huge losses; and I do not like it.
Someone once very clearly wrote on here; if you see a person being mugged in the street; do you ignore or do something? I actually had the pleasure of taking a street mugger out some years ago; it was the right thing to do. I have a sense of justice and fairness.

I know its uncomfortable, but I am posting facts and not a fair tale of easy riches Sanderson has spouted for years. The only one retiring to the Bahamas will be Sanderson himself.

Good afternoon Ocelot

You wrote "so investors have to be forward-looking, too."

Agreed, BUT you have to consider Sanderson's record of 'achievement' and the veracity of his previous claims BEFORE you take anything he says at face value about Turkey . Its what UKOG does not say that should interest.

He mentions the nearby and 'lookalike' East Sadak as an example of how quick Resan could be monetized; He does not say how many drills failed there or what the production of the 'lookalike' is; why not?

Ozzy52 writes;

"I try to be honest.in what I say......many who criticise Sanderson for overstating the facts, now criticise him for saying very little"
Very commendable.

Lets look back at these two written statements from UKOG and Mr Sanderson;

19th April 2019 UKOG in their Loxley planning submission stated that ;

"Flow tests and pressure data from the Broadford Bridge and Horse Hill Wells Sites have been sub-commercial.."

Move on 5 months;

12.9.2019 Sanderson states;
"Meanwhile, the Kimmeridge continues to produce solidly and beyond our technical expectations, which bodes extremely well for the future Kimmeridge development at Horse Hill and elsewhere in our licences in the Weald Basin."

Can both statements be true?

As for; .."now criticise him for saying very little"

Its what he HAS said, again and again that has been proved wrong.

And for what he and UKOG have not said; I do criticize UKOG for not RNSing their sub commercial determination.

The clues all was not well with the Kimmeridge even before that September ludicrous claim from Sanderson;

RNS dated 28th June 2019

hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/uk-oil-gas-UKOG/share-news/UK-Oil-Gas-PLC-Half-year-Report/80227669

"Whilst we remain very positive on the future commercial potential of Kimmeridge oil play, we have assessed that, for risk mitigation purposes, we now plan that the Kimmeridge development, commencing with HH-1z, will likely follow the start of full scale Portland production from Horse Hill."

"risk mitigation" ?

UKOG is now in Turkey; says it all really; no big money to be had in The Weald now. He stated as much here;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEu4M3nCkWI

Ozzy52
You wrote; "most of the oil " extracted " from hh was done whilst in flow testing, so not classed as production( as i see it)"

We can play with words 'production' , 'testing' all day long.

He called it a 'very productive well'

Its there for everyone to hear; Sanderson stating in October 2018 that HH was producing several hundred barrels of oil a day with stable down hole pressure issues.

Sanderson stated that '500 - 700' barrels a day would bring in a million quid a month .

Talked about just one horizontal Portland well potential to produce 700-1000 barrels a day.

He went on to suggest that adding the Kimmeridge and "we are looking at multi thousand barrels per day"

Yes, a lot has changed in the 33 months since

Move on 7 months to 19th April 2019 and UKOG in their Loxley planning submission let slip that ;

"Flow tests and pressure data from the Broadford Bridge and Horse Hill Wells Sites have been sub-commercial.."

That was never RNS'd ; should have been .

Sanderson subsequently spouted a right load of nonsense in this 12.9.2019 RNS

hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/uk-oil-gas-UKOG/share-news/UK-Oil-Gas-PLC-Drilling-and-Testing-Update/80711992

"Meanwhile, the Kimmeridge continues to produce solidly and beyond our technical expectations, which bodes extremely well for the future Kimmeridge development at Horse Hill and elsewhere in our licences in the Weald Basin."

Sanderson has made repeated incredible predictions over the years from 'retiring to the Bahamas' to more recently 'multi thousands of barrels' production at HH.

Judged by delivery ; he has fallen way short.

Good morning Ozzy52
You wrote;

"..there have been major costcuttings since 2018 that is the problem with quoting outdated information.....things have vastly changed since then.."

You are entirely correct; a lot has changed; oil production now is FAR FAR worse than Sanderson reported in 2018.

As for cost cuttings ; yes , indeed; UKOG promised 20 -50% directors pay cuts; turned out Sanderson's was cut circa 9.5 % and other directors less.

How profitable is HH production?

in October 2018 Sanderson was interviewed and gave an indication as to the base production required;

hTTps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWHSjOCFRYg

From 4 mins 25 secs he stated that 80 barrels a day at $60 POO is commercial.

POO today is over $70 BUT we have to factor in water disposal costs ; so; maybe 80 barrels a day pays its way today.
HH production is about 100 barrels a day.

Its fair to assume that there are at least likely 20 profitable barrels a day; Should be enough to pay Sanderson's and one other directors pay ; maybe.

Best not to dwell too much on the other figures Sanderson mentioned.

Good morning Hydrogen

You wrote ;
"QD going to blows the doors off, I'm sure of it. :)"

I hope you are right; I am not so sure. Of the current drills this is the really interesting one that MIGHT be very good and we have a useful 40% interest.
Not too long to wait.

Really wish we had movement on the gas assets; seems we are still waiting on the KRG.

Good morning harpmabndoodle
You wrote;
"I expect extreme supply constraints will push to near $200 is on cards within 3 years."

That would be wonderful. BUT, have we all forgotten already where POO was less than two years ago?
Most of the reason that POO is strong is that PUTIN & MBS have learnt that cooperation on POO is better than confrontation.
Disciplined production is key and we should be OK as long as the Saudis are happy to be, in effect, swing producers.

I am just very grateful we are over $70 which gives SL a very much better chance of development than in those dark days of super low POO.

Because the oil market is so potentially volatile and with the end of the oil age in sight (yes , still years away) I think Harbour will be looking for some reassuring tax adjustments; I certainly would.

Good evening gus0
You wrote;

"As for funding, why on either do people think it will be new shares issued?"

Because the management have given a warning , as below;

14th April 2021 RNS
Extract;
"The cash balance at year-end was $2.18 million (2019: $3.68 million). The Company remains debt-free. With a decreasing cash balance, and in the event that market conditions prevent us from sourcing partner funding, it may be necessary to raise additional capital in the coming year."