Member Info for cyan2

Good afternoon nomlungo

I think its pretty generally accepted that UKOG are keen on publishing 'good' news; like joining a geothermal association ,ummm
Anyway ; have a look at their twitter page where they gleefully shared photos of the site clearance and the laying of the pad. Nothing new recently.
https://twitter.com/UKOGlistedonAIM/with_replies?lang=en

I think its fair to assume the rig is not on site. I think they need to pay the cash to AME before that happens; so its likely all awaiting the latest fund raise.

The really important issue is sorting the finance so the drill can start.

However; it is interesting that there is a lack of news on the new blocks UKOG/ AME were applying for.
It appears there were others applying; did they 'win'.

UKOG should clarify;
Here is an extract from the RNS announcing the applications;

10.12.20

"The four geologically prospective blocks were offered in a licence round which attracted three other applications, including one from TPAO the Turkish state oil & gas company.

Further to a recent favourable meeting with the Turkish licence regulator, GDMPA, we understand that the AME/UKOG application has now been passed to the Turkish government for approval. At this stage, whilst indications are positive, we await formal notification as to which licence or licences, if any, are awarded to AME/UKOG. Notification is expected within 60 days - results and terms will be released in due course."

hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/uk-oil-gas-UKOG/share-news/UK-Oil-Gas-PLC-Application-for-3-new-Turkish-lic/83869144

The 16th April 2021 results RNS suggested UKOG were still waiting an answer;

Extract; "We also look forward to hearing the outcome of our application with AME for three further exploration licences in south east Turkey, lying to the south and south east of our Basur-Resan Licence. The most northerly block, M47-b3, is interpreted to contain a potentially significant extension of Basur-Resan and the most south easterly block, M48-d1, an extension of the recent Bukat-1 discovery well.

Good morning harpmandoodle

You wrote;
"BP and other oilies are playing th demand/supply game. Oil price will rocket and they will be no worse off. Probably a lot more profitable."

The big, rich oil companies are the ones all Falkland Oil companies need to attract. The trouble is; they are, by and large, divesting from fossil fuels. There are exceptions; like Shell and BP interest in Argentinian off shore blocks.

If the likes of BP and Shell WERE going to invest in the Falklands; they would have done so by now. Shell left over 20 years ago; I think 1998 when they drilled in the NFB.

Anyone who argues, 'but the oil price is so high; someone will invest' should look back to 2018 when POO averaged $71 for the year; no-one farmed in then; why would they now?

I think Harbour are the FIG's best last chance for any FI oil production; but its touch and go IF Sealion will ever go ahead.

"..and bp buys us out "

BP are divesting; they are not in the market for BOR's asset, imo

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/2/1/bp-sells-oman-gas-stake-in-push-to-divest-25b-of-fossil-fuel-assets

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bp-assets-transition-exclusive-idUSKCN2530GY

The new strategy also sheds more light on chief executive Bernard Looney’s plan to reduce BP’s oil and gas production by 40%, or at least 1 million barrels per day, by 2030 while expanding into renewable energy.

“It is a simple calculation of natural production decline and planned divestment,” said a BP source, explaining how BP became the first big oil company to pledge a large cut in its oil output.

The meeting lasted three minutes 31 seconds and not a single question was submitted before the meeting or during. Unbelievable.

https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/60a3b4e87961e2251776fabf

Good afternoon garymbrock

You humorously wrote;

"...eventually if the south east corner of the country doesn’t crack off and drop off into the English Channel cos he’s cris crossed so many blinking drills that it is now barely connected to the rest of the U.K. land mass .... that one or two will be successful. "

Trouble is; just how valuable are possible discoveries in The Weald?

Sanderson did a bit of a 'tens of millions' hatchet job on his own asset base with this presentation;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEu4M3nCkWI

Who would want to invest in the Weald after he , not only dissed the value of the potential prizes and the reserves ; he also emphasized how costly it was to drill in The Weald.

I agree ;Turkey is key now. However; in the above presentation Sanderson refers to nearby East Sadak and its fast route to monetization. . What he did not say was that MULTIPLE wells there only produce, in total , a few hundred barrels. Apparently; each well averages circa 50 barrels a well .

Would five wells on Resan producing 125 barrels in TOTAL (UKOG's possible 50% share) really be transformational; especially when you factor in the millions invested?

I think Sanderson is pretty desperate now and that ANY oil show from Resan will be bigged up to high heaven and WILL be described as a discovery. A very careful read of the results RNS will be required; I learnt that lesson from the BB "discovery" RNS. The bad 'sub-commercial' news was buried in the huge text.

Who knows; Sanderson may get really lucky with his "roll of the dice" and the Resan volumes could be much better.

spin the wheel; roll the dice; fingers crossed......and never mind if you lose; Sanderson has other great plans...think geothermal . Ummmm

Ibug's link goes to the 12th may AGM meeting; at least for today.
The AGM is worth listening to carefully again.

I found Sanderson's comments on a HH CPR rather interesting; from about 11.35.

To summarise his comments on a CPR; UKOG have no plans for a CPR until after a third well on the field. UKOG have made their own assessment that resulted in the revisions in the annual report.
Sanderson said "a CPR here adds very little value"

These remarks combined are very significant because, in the distant past, Sanderson has held out the prospect of reserve based lending to avoid fund raisings involving dilutions.

We know that the annual report seriously impaired HH value. The Portland technical recoverable was estimated by UKOG themselves as just 600,000 barrels. The Kimmeridge 1C to UKOG was shown as 300,000 barrels.
One can understand now, imo, that Sanderson has recognised that he would struggle to raise much against such small volumes.
I conclude that a CPR is a very distant prospect now and that leaves UKOG with on going financing continuing to be by more share issues.

Sanderson stated that if Resan failed their are other blocks they have hopes of and they have other UK projects still.

I think that its not unreasonable to assume there will be more significant fund raises in the future.
UKOK clearly indicated this with this line;

"Should an open offer be successful on a cost benefit basis the Company will make available to the Shareholders an opportunity to participate in all future fundraisings either: (i) by way of an open offer on a pre-emptive basis; or (ii) through a mechanism that allows shareholders participate in fundraising on a more general basis." "

UKOG's fund raising model remains equity issues for the foreseeable future; more WILL follow.

OofyProsser

You wrote; " Mr. Sanderson has committed the company to the Turkey well.."

Yes; but without ALL the capital required which I find amazing and reckless. I presume AME did the DD and were FULL aware of UKOG's finances. If they were; it suggests to me that they really had no other choices if they wanted a free gamble on Resan.
The drill has to go ahead now or else ......
There's just that 'what if' voting issue on Monday to consider...surely the votes will pass?

Good morning OofyProsser
You wrote; "They've shoved it all on 36 and the wheel is spinning."

The drill is not spinning. Sanderson has apparently NOT got the cash at hand to get the rig on site yet.
He just assumed, and must have reassured AME; that UKOG were good for the cash; raising further capital would be a walk in the park.

Unfortunately , Sanderson has been left a little embarrassed . It appears too, that even MORE cash is required for all his ambitions than was originally thought.

He is standing at a roulette table which has a minimum stake , and he has not got all the necessary to play. He's frantically trying to raise the funds to stake on "36" and get the drill spinning.

Monday's votes are critical.

Can not see any equipment being moved on here;
https://twitter.com/UKOGlistedonAIM

Good morning ocelot
From TW's article on S h a re Prophet s , it appears Rodders and Co need 10% not 5% to call the meeting;

hTTps://www.share prophets.com/views/56078/uk-oil-gas-now-458-of-the-equity-pledged-to-oust-lyin-steve-sanderson

Have put a space in the web address as LSE tends to auto delete links to Sp's. Close the gap for a working address.

I do not think they are going to get 10%. T

The really interesting questions do surround the GM votes.

I remember how the BB disaster was headlined as a "Discovery"
29th march 2018 RNS
"Broadford Bridge-1/1z Oil Discovery and PEDL234 Licence Update"
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/uk-oil-gas-UKOG/share-news/UK-Oil-Gas-Investments-PLC-Update-Broadford-Br/77062016
Long and technical. Took some looking to find the phrase "sub-commercial"

What I have learnt over the years is the longer and more turgid the RNS; the more likely there's buried bad news.

Good afternoon OofyProsser

You wrote;
"If it succeeds, investors will make a lot of money.."

What would 'success' look like ? To Sanderson at BB he was initially quite happy to parade a video of a jug of oil being poured. In the long , and very expensive run. it turned out to be 'sub-commercial'.

I am sure there will be plenty of spinning of the drill result. Maybe a few traders will make money .
The only thing impossible to spin would be a complete duster which is probably unlikely.

As others have pointed out; E Sadak may give clues as to what 'success' may look like.

Its all been made very clear by UKOG themselves; again in bold type;

"In order to deliver the Company’s stated strategy and growth objectives, it will require
further funds in the near future for, amongst other things, its funding obligations under
the agreed work programme for the Resan Licence and any of the new Licence
applications should they be awarded to the Company and its partner."

If UKOG can not pony up....do you think AME will complete the drill WITHOUT payment, up front? Would you accept an iou from SS?
Nothing from UKOG here to indicate ANY movement of equipment to the site;

https://twitter.com/UKOGlistedonAIM

The directors are listening NOW only because they have been forced to.

From the annual results;

"It is the prime responsibility of the Board to ensure the Group remains a going concern. At 30 September 2020 the Company had cash and cash equivalents of GBP1,634,000 and borrowings of GBP3,084,000. These borrowings are due by the Company's subsidiary, Horse Hill Developments Ltd, to its shareholders, There is no repayment schedule associated with this loan and repayment is determined by the directors of Horse Hill Developments Ltd. The intent is to repay this loan from the free cash flow generated from the HH-1 well or any other further developments on the license areas of Horse Hill Developments Ltd. The Company has minimal contractual expenditure commitments and the Board considers that in conjunction with equity financing, the present funds are sufficient to maintain the working capital of the Company for a period of at least 12 months from the date of signing the Annual Report and Financial Statements. For these reasons the Directors adopt the going concern basis in the preparation of the Financial Statements."

"in conjunction with equity financing"

Sanderson just assumed that he could forever print money; and UKOG could be always be a going concern supported by 'equity financing'
The share holder activism and the voting down of resolution 6 left UKOG with financial commitments they made to AME they could not honour. More funds are required to complete the well so we move to the new GM resolutions.

When has UKOG previously felt it necessary to issue such a worded working capital warning just before a fund raise vote?
The votes MUST pass.

Good evening ocelot

"A bit melodramatic, cyan2.." You may question my language; BUT, its what UKOG warned in BOLD type that is a serious warning;

"Please note that if the Resolutions fail, the Company’s ability to raise further working capital may be impacted. "

https://www.ukogplc.com/ul/UKOG%20GM%20Notice%20210521.pdf

Without working capital UKOG grinds to a halt and their going concern status is under threat, imo.

Good evening LSE337
you wrote;

" there has always been something going on UKOG that only the BOD would know about, so maybe they have been in a Closed Period preventing them buying shares. We don't know .."

Actually we do know categorically about one occasion.

This RNS clearly states there was an open period in 2018 when Sanderson wanted to trade;

hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/uk-oil-gas-UKOG/share-news/UK-Oil-Gas-Investments-PLC-Exercise-Grant-Ame/77182010

"..current open period.."

Sanderson wanted to exercise options in 2018 and sell straight away but was persuaded/blocked by other directors.
This is an extract of a post I wrote on ADVFN at the time on the blocked exercise of options;

"Why was it blocked?
"to ensure the continued alignment of the interests of shareholders and the option holders and considering the liquidity of the Company's shares it would be beneficial to extend these options"

LIQUIDITY would be affected IF THE SHARES WERE GOING TO BE SOLD straight away.

You have to ask the question; why would a director be keen to sell NOW?

If the director thought that the SP was going North to 3p ; say after HH EWT;

he would want to HOLD his 0.4p shares NOT SELL them for 1.5p NOW.

That RNS is a red flag imo"

One has to use simple logic to understand the directors motivation to start buying a limited amount of stock in July.
If it was because they thought RESAN was going to be an outstanding success; they would have announced their scheme soon after the market was informed in October 2020.

There has been no reason why a DDSPP could not have been set up years ago; like 2018.

So why now; what has changed their mind? Obviously they are running scared of the new shareholder activism . They also desperately need to encourage possible participants in yet another fund raise as the company will soon run out of working capital; the situation is serious.

Good morning Ocelot.

Not familiar with all the ins and outs of the ANGS deal. I think they have a CPR. However the funding was structured the funders must have cause to judge the loan safe.

RBL gets mentioned because Sanderson a VERY long time ago held out the prospect of reserve based lending to avoid dilution based funding .

Cynderland wrote;
"So why couldn't UKOG get a finance deal? Do you think they tried and were refused? Where is the updated CPR for HH, is the data that bad .."

Reserve based lending requires a CPR. A year of stable production is required before a CPR can be completed.

Unfortunately HH production is not stable and I think they need the injector working and then the clock can start.

Trouble is ;UKOG's own in-house competent person assessed The Portland's technical recoverable at only 600,000 barrels.
How much would anyone want to lend against such a poor volume?

You can see why SS went looking elsewhere for a larger potential asset; just a pity he had not sored all the finance before commuting to Turkey.
Now UKOG are in a financial pickle; nearly out of working capital and seeking to finance by yet another huge dilution.

Good morning ocelot.

You wrote; " In Iraqi Kurdistan, on some of its wells, Genel was achieving full payback of its investment in 3 months, ie it had fully recovered its investment in 3 months."

Genel is a proper volume producer whichI hold. I don't think anyone recently posting here expects Resan to approach the flows Genl has had;
This is what an outstanding well result looks like and that's why payback can be quick when you find a field so productive and large;

hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/genel-energy-GENL/share-news/Genel-Energy-PLC-Update-on-Tawke-PSC/76264689

"A total of 11 zones in a 1.2 kilometre horizontal section of Cretaceous and Jurassic reservoir in the Peshkabir-3 well were individually tested and flowed successfully, of which ten were oil zones and one a gas zone. The oil zones tested an average of 5,340 bopd per zone on a 64/64" choke, with the highest individual test rate of 7,200 bopd. A multi-zone combined production test totalled 12,500 bopd on a 128/64" choke from five zones."