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Appreciate you can not reply today; but I had to comment on this line of yours;
"Majors are falling over themselves to show they are going green, not by investing the huge amounts required in renewables but by under investment in the very product they make their money out of."
There is plenty of evidence of the huge renewable investments by the big boys;
"BP and partner paying £900m for entry into UK offshore wind market
BP has entered the UK offshore wind market with leases for a combined three-gigawatts of projects in the Irish Sea."
hTTps://www.energyvoice.com/renewables-energy-transition/297268/bp-uk-offshore-wind-irish-sea/
Good afternoon Marunam2
You wrote "If HBR relinquish the licence then it ALL reverts back to RKH, all 100% of it with all the works on FEED, EIA etc ."
That would be a disaster as I have seen no evidence of the big oil companies having any interest in the FI's oil.
Navitas are a small opportunist outfit trying to get a great deal at our expense; if only they were cash rich; so I take no comfort from their interest.
The cash rich BIG oil companies we need are choosing to invest in Argentinian exploration rather than our discovered, proven assets.
Its Harbour; or nobody. They see many easier , faster hits elsewhere and have an ambitious capital expenditure plans already. SL is huge in every way; not sure they can afford it.
Do not forget the huge tax losses Harbour can use in the NS . Its not all old useless assets that are left; JOG have plans for a multi asset development that would be more tax efficient.
I really wish I had your confidence that SL will be sanctioned by harbour.
Good morning nomlungo
You wrote; " Eventually, the CONservatives will let the cat out of the bag and admit fracking will be allowed and to prove they are not just targetting the North, and allow fracking in the Surry Hills."
Wouldn't that be like committing political suicide? I can not see them allowing fracking in The weald.
SL is just so capital intensive with a long lead time. It ticks the box for Harbour as regards being operator in control but its really so big in every way ; an intimidating long term financial risk. Maybe if UKEF support was still available Harbour would be keener to proceed.
I can see why they are carefully reviewing. Not sure that the FIG 'get it'
Good morning Charlesw2667
You wrote; "I feel if HBR wants to improve the deal with FI they will need to do it soon because the longer the POO stays above $70 the weaker their negotiating position will become."
All HBR has to do is to remind the FIG hoe the oil price crashed last year and then highlight the earlier lows;
https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart
They have to emphasise the risk they are taking with forward POO because its three and a half years from FID to first oil; what will the price be with the end of the oil age now in sight?
The FIG risks losing all chance of revenues if they do not move on taxation.
Good afternoon Ocelot
Finding some oil is one thing; whether its commercial is another.
Watch Sanderson's presentation and note the slides caveat ; "need to establish commercial rates and volume"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEu4M3nCkWI
They found a little oil at BB and called it a 'discovery' ; it was still found to be sub-commercial .....
Commercial failure at Resan is a possibility. Just have to wait on the drill results
"We are producing 100 bpd at HH, so why not 1.3bln MC ??"
Answer; Its a crazy valuation when you compare to a regional player like GENEL.
Genels Taq Taq field has been mentioned before on this BB. Its just part of their portfolio .
GENL produces about 33,000 barrels per day and has a market cap of circa £446m .
Frankly speaking; there are some pretty ludicrous numbers being predicted for UKOG. No-one seems to have even considered failure in Resan as a possible scenario.
Good afternoon luckystrike.
I note your comment "Shorts must be on fire after the recent rise"
This has been an oft repeated claim as UKOG has been on a general downward trajectory for years, partly due to enormous share based fund raises;
FYI here are some numbers to consider;
Last 4 years fund raises;
19.5.17 £6.5m placing
15.11.17 £10m loan
15.6.18 £5.5m Placing
2.7.18 £5m placing
4.7.18 £2m placing
27.3.19 £3.5m placing
7.8.19 £5.5m loan
2.12.19 £2m placing
28.4. 20 £1.275m placing
4.6.20 £ 4.2m placing
2.10.20 £2.2m placing
Total £47. 675m
And very soon; more shares will be created.
Traders have made some money, BUT ,UKOG has not proved to be a great for long term holders;
Good luck with your strategy .
Would the Turkish government be hard nosed about the by 27th June date?
More than likely they will give an extension.
The interesting question is; how do the Turkish decision makers view UKOG's application for further licences having watched them struggle with finance to get their first well away on time.
There were others also applying for the licences; so would UKOG's poor delivery performance affect the decisions?
If everything is going to plan; why do they need working capital in the "near" future?
As for the 27th June date and what may or may not happen if the drill has not commenced; I do not know what consequences may follow.
If we look back to what UKOG published when announcing the Turkish deal they wrote;
Forward Plans
"The first commitment well, currently planned to appraise and flow test the Basur oil discovery, must commence drilling before 27 June 2021. Drilling and seismic are therefore expected to commence before the end of this year, Covid, weather and Turkish governmental transaction approval permitting."
'MUST commence drilling BEFORE 27th June 2021'
Looks urgent to me. No sign of the drill yet and the only logical reason is that AME are awaiting a cash payment from UKOG.
Good afternoon Ocelot
You wrote; "..the next fundraise looks as if it is being choreographed, to follow the spud and initial drilling of Basur-3."
I respectfully disagree. UKOG published this when asking for support in the GM;
"In order to deliver the Company's stated strategy and growth objectives, it will require further funds in the near future for, amongst other things, its funding obligations under the agreed work programme for the Resan Licence and any of the new Licence applications should they be awarded to the Company and its partner. "
'its funding obligations' in Resan I think refers to paying for the drill.
There is no sign of the drill yet.
Good afternoon Mirasol
You wrote;
"You know, we know , they know it's as dead as a Dodo but they won't say so - until they do expect people to keep flagging its a lie"
And here is the proof;
19th April 2019 UKOG in their Loxley planning submission UKOG stated that ;
"Flow tests and pressure data from the Broadford Bridge and Horse Hill Wells Sites have been sub-commercial.."
Yet........ just 5 months on and we have this BS from SS;
12.9.2019 Sanderson stated;
"Meanwhile, the Kimmeridge continues to produce solidly and beyond our technical expectations, which bodes extremely well for the future Kimmeridge development at Horse Hill and elsewhere in our licences in the Weald Basin."
Sanderson has lost credibility.
Everyone with common sense will understand that if The Kimmeridge had any serious value ; UKOG would not be 'rolling the dice' in Turkey.
What's going on NOW? Confidence will erode as long as UKOG remain silent regarding the urgently needed fund raise.
Good morning Ocelot.
You make a perfectly reasonable observation;
But; if we look back to the AGM ;
At the AGM the two directors up for re-election ; (Howard & Morzaria) got circa 567 m votes each.
With the rebels holding 863 m plus votes , the directors HOWARD & MORZARIA must be worried that , if put to a vote, they are likely to struggle to retain their seats.
Will people go out of their way to vote FOR H & M?
As for Sanderson......?
Sanderson must be a bit concerned especially as the rebels have made further progress as announced this morning;
Shareholder support as of 9am 16th June 2021
118 shareholders supporting the cause
863,159,545 shares, representing 6.53% of UKOG shares
" how about a comment on "why are the uninvested so concerned,they've got nothing to lose" ......without another history lesson please."
Because I have seen unscrupulous rampers and Sanderson with ridiculous claims lead many inexperienced investors to huge losses; and I do not like it.
Someone once very clearly wrote on here; if you see a person being mugged in the street; do you ignore or do something? I actually had the pleasure of taking a street mugger out some years ago; it was the right thing to do. I have a sense of justice and fairness.
I know its uncomfortable, but I am posting facts and not a fair tale of easy riches Sanderson has spouted for years. The only one retiring to the Bahamas will be Sanderson himself.
Good afternoon Ocelot
You wrote "so investors have to be forward-looking, too."
Agreed, BUT you have to consider Sanderson's record of 'achievement' and the veracity of his previous claims BEFORE you take anything he says at face value about Turkey . Its what UKOG does not say that should interest.
He mentions the nearby and 'lookalike' East Sadak as an example of how quick Resan could be monetized; He does not say how many drills failed there or what the production of the 'lookalike' is; why not?