Member Info for cyan2

The claim is for 275million Euros plus interest. I am believe RKH will get a small fraction of that.

if RKH can clear at least £30 m , it will give them enough cash to survive to a possible first oil IF Harbour were to sanction Sealion.
There are huge risks here. Without Harbour I am convinced SL will become a stranded asset. The only plus is the strength of POO. Harbour will have to consider the impact on their books if they were to just walk away.

This project needs export finance support but it looks like that boats sailed.

So what 's the conversation between FIG & Harbour been about recently? FIG should have conceded ground in 2017 when Durrant asked for royalty relief . UKEF support was still available then and IF the FIG had agreed they might have been coining it in NOW.

Have they learnt anything since about what future is left for oil?

Where did the $450m figure come from from?

hTTps://www.crai.com/engagements/rockhopper-exploration-plc-rockhopper-italia-s-p-a-and-rockhopper-mediterranean-ltd-v-italian-republic-icsid-case-no-arb-17-14/

"Tiago Duarte-Silva testified on behalf of Italy in a $450 million ICSID arbitration brought on by Rockhopper Exploration plc..."

Good morning Godders99

you wrote; "Am i right in thinking that this will not establish the quantum of any award, merely whether we have "won" or not."

I think that both are possible; either an award with a figure, or, an award to state we have (hopefully) won and then a period of calculations.

The Tethyan case was HUGE in everyway and there was a gap of many months between stating the 'win' and the calculation of the award figure. That was a very difficult case with the other party muddying the waters.

Whilst the Tethyan case ultimately resulted in an award of billions; I think our case is more straight forward and certainly going to be FAR smaller in size, so I am hopeful we will have a number in July.

Getting hold of the money will be the next issue.

Then we must make sure Moody does not 'invest' the proceeds in Greenland Oil & Gas.

Looks like Sam gets £20k from Greenland oil & Gas which looks like a doomed enterprise to me rapidly running out of what little cash is left.

When we eventually to hear Harbours decision ; which I think is more likely NOT to develop; we will be left with a couple of massively overpaid office boys posting out mail shots and cold calling until the cash runs out.

After listening to the presentation by MOODY ,I still remain doubtful that SL will be developed by Harbour.

MOODY's comments did not sound hopeful to me with him raising the possibility that SL may not be wanted by harbour.; in which case they will continue to strive to see SL developed because our asset is wonderful . Great. We could end up like BOR; going nowhere.

The only near term hope , imo, is the arbitration.

Good morning HodenPray

You wrote; "And a big IF we hit oil where are they going to put it as there appears to be no storage facilities there !!"

From what AME have published it appears to me that early production is not the priority. Here below is a copy of a post of mine from 23rd May ;

Appraisal or exploration?

A previous LSE member posted this link sometime ago;

hTTps://www.enerjigunlugu.net/aladdin-middle-east-siirtte-petrol-arayacak-42545h.htm

"Aladdin Middle East will search for oil in Siirt America-based Aladdin Middle East will drill a BaÅŸur-3 exploration well in Siirt and search for oil. Source: Aladdin Middle East to search for oil in Siirt"

"Energy Diary - American-based Aladdin Middle East will drill a BaÅŸur-3 exploration well in Siirt to search for oil. Aladdin Middle East Ltd. Åžti. Oil exploration work is planned in BaÅŸur-3 location area, which is in AR / AME / K / M47-b1, b2 exploration license in Central district of Siirt province. Within the scope of the project worth 6 million liras, the company will drill BaÅŸur-3 detection wells in approximately 360 thousand square meters of pastureland and search for oil. Since the activity is a detection drilling activity, there will be no production within the scope of the activity. Source: Aladdin Middle East to search for oil in Siirt"

"search for oil"
"exploration well"
"Since the activity is a detection drilling activity, there will be no production within the scope of the activity."

From that its clear to me this is in reality exploration and any production from a possible commercial find will not be that quick.

Good afternoon Exploration

You wrote; "it all seems rather precarious and I hope UKOG does not default or is not penalised."

The situation is ridiculous. Sanderson recklessly committed UKOG to an adventure without having first arranged all necessary finance. He made assumptions based on his previous ease in , effectively, printing money via placing's which have become increasingly dilutive.

It appears placing resistance may now thrown a spanner in the works. Its taking suspiciously long to raise the cash; has the appetite for billions more shares dried up? Just how many is he trying to place?

I think there must be contractual penalties incurred if UKOG fails to fund.

Good afternoon dogefather
You wrote;
"As I said, there would be no placing before spud. Now I doubt there would be any placing at all. Who knows there's more surprises to come?"

I think we can read a fair bit into the fact that they commenced less than 6 hours from the deadline.

Here's my view;

I think AME were left high and dry by UKOG who have not YET honoured all their financial obligations to pay 100% of the costs.

AME had to risk losing the license and getting black marks from the regulators, or , sink their own cash into the drill with UKOG offering an IOU.

"Now I doubt there would be any placing at all"

UKOG spelt it out themselves on 21st MAY. They MUST raise cash...somehow;

"In order to deliver the Company's stated strategy and growth objectives, it will require further funds in the near future for, amongst other things, its funding obligations under the agreed work programme for the Resan Licence and any of the new Application Blocks should they be awarded to the Company and its partner."

Best hope there is a placing because the alternative could be death spiral.

"Hurricane are going into forced insolvency so assets will be sold to the highest bidder, no?"

Maybe so but who wants a small , FPSO dependant asset ,where extra drilling is required through some of the worlds toughest rock.?

Smarter move would be to buy into JOG's conventional fields and use nearby pipelines.

"Anyone else think HBR might snap up Hurricane assets?2

My answer is ; NO.

There are plenty of cheaper , more conventional plays where drilling is a lot easier and cheaper. The recoverable volumes from the fractured basements were revised down. So much for CPR's.

Just two lines in Harbours update;

"A thorough review of the Group’s Sea Lion project in the Falkland Islands is currently underway ahead of a decision regarding the re-start of project activity."

How long do they need to 'review' SL?. The numbers have been known for many months.

I am struggling to find a positive. POO is good; for the time being; that's all I can see.

We really need a 'get out of jail' cash award from OM

Good morning Marunam2

You wrote; " I see no reason to think they will back out Sealion because the project is big or that renewables will be here within a decade to cater for the worlds energy needs.."

My point is ; the evidence is there; BIG money is moving into renewables, no matter the cost or how long it takes.
Ideally; its big cash rich companies we need investing in Falkland's oil.; not renewables.
The evidence is that BIG oil IS spending BIG money in renewables. We need BIG money interest ; where is it coming from?

Harbour bought PMO to get a listing and use of giant tax losses in the NS.

Its all about whether harbour Harbour thinks SL is the best place to invest its limited funds. I do not see anyone else rushing to replace Harbour in SL or investing in BOR's asset.

Appreciate you can not reply today; but I had to comment on this line of yours;

"Majors are falling over themselves to show they are going green, not by investing the huge amounts required in renewables but by under investment in the very product they make their money out of."

There is plenty of evidence of the huge renewable investments by the big boys;

"BP and partner paying £900m for entry into UK offshore wind market
BP has entered the UK offshore wind market with leases for a combined three-gigawatts of projects in the Irish Sea."

hTTps://www.energyvoice.com/renewables-energy-transition/297268/bp-uk-offshore-wind-irish-sea/

Good afternoon Marunam2

You wrote "If HBR relinquish the licence then it ALL reverts back to RKH, all 100% of it with all the works on FEED, EIA etc ."

That would be a disaster as I have seen no evidence of the big oil companies having any interest in the FI's oil.
Navitas are a small opportunist outfit trying to get a great deal at our expense; if only they were cash rich; so I take no comfort from their interest.
The cash rich BIG oil companies we need are choosing to invest in Argentinian exploration rather than our discovered, proven assets.

Its Harbour; or nobody. They see many easier , faster hits elsewhere and have an ambitious capital expenditure plans already. SL is huge in every way; not sure they can afford it.
Do not forget the huge tax losses Harbour can use in the NS . Its not all old useless assets that are left; JOG have plans for a multi asset development that would be more tax efficient.

I really wish I had your confidence that SL will be sanctioned by harbour.

Good morning nomlungo

You wrote; " Eventually, the CONservatives will let the cat out of the bag and admit fracking will be allowed and to prove they are not just targetting the North, and allow fracking in the Surry Hills."

Wouldn't that be like committing political suicide? I can not see them allowing fracking in The weald.

SL is just so capital intensive with a long lead time. It ticks the box for Harbour as regards being operator in control but its really so big in every way ; an intimidating long term financial risk. Maybe if UKEF support was still available Harbour would be keener to proceed.
I can see why they are carefully reviewing. Not sure that the FIG 'get it'

Good morning Charlesw2667

You wrote; "I feel if HBR wants to improve the deal with FI they will need to do it soon because the longer the POO stays above $70 the weaker their negotiating position will become."

All HBR has to do is to remind the FIG hoe the oil price crashed last year and then highlight the earlier lows;

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

They have to emphasise the risk they are taking with forward POO because its three and a half years from FID to first oil; what will the price be with the end of the oil age now in sight?

The FIG risks losing all chance of revenues if they do not move on taxation.

I think its premature to call Turkey dead without the first drill results in.

Sanderson correctly described it as a 'roll of the dice' No-one can be certain.

Good afternoon Ocelot

Finding some oil is one thing; whether its commercial is another.

Watch Sanderson's presentation and note the slides caveat ; "need to establish commercial rates and volume"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEu4M3nCkWI

They found a little oil at BB and called it a 'discovery' ; it was still found to be sub-commercial .....

Commercial failure at Resan is a possibility. Just have to wait on the drill results