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Good evening Penguins
you wrote; Cyan2,
'Why would the board buy on Friday 2nd July knowing that a placing was in the offing ?'
I hope you're being sarcastic as that is called insider dealing.
What can I say?
Let's look at what the RNS announcing the placing says;
"The Placing's issue price of 0.18 pence per share ("Placing Price"), represents approximately a 22% discount to the closing price of the Company's ordinary shares on 01 July 2021, the business day prior to the placing's close."
Good evening Stockraiser
You wrote;
" "Upon commitment to the DDSPP, which is EXPECTED to occur"
So not set in stone, but I would like to think they are currently purchasing outside the DDSPP regardless!"
Why would the board buy on Friday 2nd July knowing that a placing was in the offing ? They had inside knowledge that the huge placing could likely tank the share price. They are simply acting in their best interest; and maybe will complete their commitment at the now lower SP.
Good morning Sources.
You wrote; "your stating slander against ukog the company will be informed of this this very morning , legal action can be taken against you.."
Don't you think UKOG have racked enough legal bills already?
I would have thought that if UKOG and Sanderson thought they had been the subject 'slander', and had a good case ,they would have pursued TW years ago. He has used some blunt language.
Good afternoon harvey5416
You wrote; " UKOG board are as sincere as the last 'Tory manifesto' "
Was your decision linked to the commitment of the directors to buy shares?
"...the first DDSPP purchase is expected to occur on Friday July 2...'
Wasn't the share price 0.23 p on Friday?
"The market will be notified of the share purchases under the DDSPP on the next trading day"
Still got 25 minutes for them release an RNS showing the directors HONOURED their COMMITTMENT to buy shares at 0.23 p
The whole problem with SL is its TOO BIG in everyway; but critically cost wise. Its a play for a major oil company not mid tier or lower.
Without UKEF support ; I fear the worst .
If harbour walk I am struggling to see who will step up?. We have Navitas hanging around in the background but they could not take on more. The interesting previous connections with Delek might suggest they could step up. However looking at their numbers; I think its a bridge too far.
MOODY's presentation was, indeed , like a sales pitch to other oil companies and his raising the possibility that Harbour may walk gives me a clue to what the mood music is like with Harbour.
Good morning Ovets
You wrote; ..they must "be in control"
My recollection was that Harbour stated its their preference to be the operator ( in control) of their assets. Harbour will not walk based solely on the issue of who is the operator. If the numbers are overwhelming positive; Harbour will invest , imo.
Good morning Muchaboutmoney
The DM also highlighted PEMEX poor safety record .
Pemex has a long history of major and deadly industrial accidents at its facilities.
hTTps://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9751423/Ocean-flames-Gulf-Mexico-gas-leak-underwater-pipeline-sparked-fire.html
It does appear, however that Harbour are much keener on Zama than SL. The latest HBR presentation had these lines; . . "Preparations underway for the 1st of two commitment wells on Block 30.
Long life, cash generative asset"
Right from the start COOK stated they liked the asset; whether that has cooled much recently is the question. On the balance of evidence , they are sticking with Zama , imo.
The claim is for 275million Euros plus interest. I am believe RKH will get a small fraction of that.
if RKH can clear at least £30 m , it will give them enough cash to survive to a possible first oil IF Harbour were to sanction Sealion.
There are huge risks here. Without Harbour I am convinced SL will become a stranded asset. The only plus is the strength of POO. Harbour will have to consider the impact on their books if they were to just walk away.
This project needs export finance support but it looks like that boats sailed.
So what 's the conversation between FIG & Harbour been about recently? FIG should have conceded ground in 2017 when Durrant asked for royalty relief . UKEF support was still available then and IF the FIG had agreed they might have been coining it in NOW.
Have they learnt anything since about what future is left for oil?
Where did the $450m figure come from from?
hTTps://www.crai.com/engagements/rockhopper-exploration-plc-rockhopper-italia-s-p-a-and-rockhopper-mediterranean-ltd-v-italian-republic-icsid-case-no-arb-17-14/
"Tiago Duarte-Silva testified on behalf of Italy in a $450 million ICSID arbitration brought on by Rockhopper Exploration plc..."
Good morning Godders99
you wrote; "Am i right in thinking that this will not establish the quantum of any award, merely whether we have "won" or not."
I think that both are possible; either an award with a figure, or, an award to state we have (hopefully) won and then a period of calculations.
The Tethyan case was HUGE in everyway and there was a gap of many months between stating the 'win' and the calculation of the award figure. That was a very difficult case with the other party muddying the waters.
Whilst the Tethyan case ultimately resulted in an award of billions; I think our case is more straight forward and certainly going to be FAR smaller in size, so I am hopeful we will have a number in July.
Getting hold of the money will be the next issue.
Then we must make sure Moody does not 'invest' the proceeds in Greenland Oil & Gas.
After listening to the presentation by MOODY ,I still remain doubtful that SL will be developed by Harbour.
MOODY's comments did not sound hopeful to me with him raising the possibility that SL may not be wanted by harbour.; in which case they will continue to strive to see SL developed because our asset is wonderful . Great. We could end up like BOR; going nowhere.
The only near term hope , imo, is the arbitration.
Good morning HodenPray
You wrote; "And a big IF we hit oil where are they going to put it as there appears to be no storage facilities there !!"
From what AME have published it appears to me that early production is not the priority. Here below is a copy of a post of mine from 23rd May ;
Appraisal or exploration?
A previous LSE member posted this link sometime ago;
hTTps://www.enerjigunlugu.net/aladdin-middle-east-siirtte-petrol-arayacak-42545h.htm
"Aladdin Middle East will search for oil in Siirt America-based Aladdin Middle East will drill a BaÅŸur-3 exploration well in Siirt and search for oil. Source: Aladdin Middle East to search for oil in Siirt"
"Energy Diary - American-based Aladdin Middle East will drill a BaÅŸur-3 exploration well in Siirt to search for oil. Aladdin Middle East Ltd. Åžti. Oil exploration work is planned in BaÅŸur-3 location area, which is in AR / AME / K / M47-b1, b2 exploration license in Central district of Siirt province. Within the scope of the project worth 6 million liras, the company will drill BaÅŸur-3 detection wells in approximately 360 thousand square meters of pastureland and search for oil. Since the activity is a detection drilling activity, there will be no production within the scope of the activity. Source: Aladdin Middle East to search for oil in Siirt"
"search for oil"
"exploration well"
"Since the activity is a detection drilling activity, there will be no production within the scope of the activity."
From that its clear to me this is in reality exploration and any production from a possible commercial find will not be that quick.
Good afternoon Exploration
You wrote; "it all seems rather precarious and I hope UKOG does not default or is not penalised."
The situation is ridiculous. Sanderson recklessly committed UKOG to an adventure without having first arranged all necessary finance. He made assumptions based on his previous ease in , effectively, printing money via placing's which have become increasingly dilutive.
It appears placing resistance may now thrown a spanner in the works. Its taking suspiciously long to raise the cash; has the appetite for billions more shares dried up? Just how many is he trying to place?
I think there must be contractual penalties incurred if UKOG fails to fund.
Good afternoon dogefather
You wrote;
"As I said, there would be no placing before spud. Now I doubt there would be any placing at all. Who knows there's more surprises to come?"
I think we can read a fair bit into the fact that they commenced less than 6 hours from the deadline.
Here's my view;
I think AME were left high and dry by UKOG who have not YET honoured all their financial obligations to pay 100% of the costs.
AME had to risk losing the license and getting black marks from the regulators, or , sink their own cash into the drill with UKOG offering an IOU.
"Now I doubt there would be any placing at all"
UKOG spelt it out themselves on 21st MAY. They MUST raise cash...somehow;
"In order to deliver the Company's stated strategy and growth objectives, it will require further funds in the near future for, amongst other things, its funding obligations under the agreed work programme for the Resan Licence and any of the new Application Blocks should they be awarded to the Company and its partner."
Best hope there is a placing because the alternative could be death spiral.
"Hurricane are going into forced insolvency so assets will be sold to the highest bidder, no?"
Maybe so but who wants a small , FPSO dependant asset ,where extra drilling is required through some of the worlds toughest rock.?
Smarter move would be to buy into JOG's conventional fields and use nearby pipelines.
"Anyone else think HBR might snap up Hurricane assets?2
My answer is ; NO.
There are plenty of cheaper , more conventional plays where drilling is a lot easier and cheaper. The recoverable volumes from the fractured basements were revised down. So much for CPR's.
Just two lines in Harbours update;
"A thorough review of the Group’s Sea Lion project in the Falkland Islands is currently underway ahead of a decision regarding the re-start of project activity."
How long do they need to 'review' SL?. The numbers have been known for many months.
I am struggling to find a positive. POO is good; for the time being; that's all I can see.
We really need a 'get out of jail' cash award from OM
Good morning Marunam2
You wrote; " I see no reason to think they will back out Sealion because the project is big or that renewables will be here within a decade to cater for the worlds energy needs.."
My point is ; the evidence is there; BIG money is moving into renewables, no matter the cost or how long it takes.
Ideally; its big cash rich companies we need investing in Falkland's oil.; not renewables.
The evidence is that BIG oil IS spending BIG money in renewables. We need BIG money interest ; where is it coming from?
Harbour bought PMO to get a listing and use of giant tax losses in the NS.
Its all about whether harbour Harbour thinks SL is the best place to invest its limited funds. I do not see anyone else rushing to replace Harbour in SL or investing in BOR's asset.