Member Info for cyan2

Good morning Penguins.

You wrote; "Timescale to sellng gas even if Loxley-1 is successful will be many years."

When giving evidence at the Loxley enquiry Sanderson explained what a full field development would cost IF the appraisal proved it up.
He also indicate that reserve based lending (RBL) was one way to fund full field development. Has to be better than raising via equity issues !

Two Sanderson quotes;

"Fifty Million is the investment necessary to drill all the wells and the surface facilities"

"If the appraisal program is successful; ie , this well is successful; it effectively proves gas in the ground and thereafter that attracts a monetary value, a net present value and that net present value would be quite substantial given the resources that are PREDICTED. Based on that net present value one is able to do what is called reserve based lending which essentially allows you to borrow money based on the actual value in the ground and fund the process."

"..this is a project for which debt finance may eventually become available."

ONLY a possibility after the asset has 'appraised' and proved robustly commercial. The direct costs of the appraisal (assuming permission is granted) is £7m

UKOG do not have the ready cash for this. Most of their cash is contractually tied up in Turkey.
UKOG were not trying, on a whim, to raise £4.7m in the open offer; they needed the cash for future costs such as the HH injection.
They are £4.23 million cash 'light' of where they hoped to be.

"But think of the valuable tax losses SS has been accumulating."

If you are making profits THEN those historic losses are useful

Trouble is UKOG has a flawed business model built on the back of Sanderson's arrogance; his feeling he is smarter than everyone else and can identify 'transformational' opportunities others were unable to appreciate.

Every 'potentially transformational ' project has a couple of characteristics in common;

Firstly; These 'transformational' areas are known; they have been drilled before.

Secondly; They all were rejected by others; not developed.

Ask yourselves why others 'passed' ; ask yourselves why AME did not want to pay for the Basur drill themselves IF they thought it a great prospect.?

You have to keep hoping that Sanderson's 'second opinion' comes up trumps ......one day. He is a compulsive gambler " rolling the dice" but not with his money.

If Sanderson and his board refuse to buy UKOG shares; what tell you about what they think the share price will do in the future?

Ocelot wrote

"The past is of interest to corporate archivists but of very little interest to investors: UKOG's future share price performance will depend upon how the business develops from here on."

If you do not learn from history , you are bound to repeat the same mistakes again and again. History warns that the future is further dilutions;
Last 4 years fund raises;

19.5.17 £6.5m placing

15.11.17 £10m loan

15.6.18 £5.5m Placing

2.7.18 £5m placing

4.7.18 £2m placing

27.3.19 £3.5m placing

7.8.19 £5.5m loan

2.12.19 £2m placing

28.4. 20 £1.275m placing

4.6.20 £ 4.2m placing

2.10.20 £2.2m placing

5.7.21 £5 m Placing

27.7.21 £462,554 Open Offer (Short by about £4.23m of the £4.7m UKOG had hoped for)

Total £53. 137554m

UKOG signalled what the future looked like in the open offer notes;

"Should the open offer be successful on a cost benefit basis the Company will make available to the Shareholders an opportunity to participate in all future fundraisings either: (i) by way of an open offer on a pre-emptive basis; or (ii) through a mechanism that allows shareholders participate in fundraising on a more general basis."

"all future fundraisings " And that was after a hoped for "successful "open offer that they HOPED would raise £4.7m.
UKOG were short by circa £4.23m after the OPEN offer flopped.

More dilution to come; UKOG told you so themselves; that is how this business "develops"

CynderlLad wrote;

"The bigger question is.... How much more confetti will SS need to issue to cover the costs of Loxley drill + EWT.
I'll open the bidding at £6m which is a hell of a lot of confetti......"

UKOG's own QC on day one of the enquiry said;

"The direct costs of the proposal are now about £7 million"

Good morning InvesterInvester;
You wrote ; " Turkish update RNS, will be great news, imo "

Imo, it will be the opposite as UKOG are yet to release an RNS announcing their failure to secure three licences covering four Turkish blocks. It was of such significance that UKOG RNS'd their application on 10th December 2020 and have this presentation on their web site;
hTTps://www.ukogplc.com/ul/5fd1d1f94b964_Turkey_New_Acreage_PR_Slides_FINAL_091220.pdf
They are obliged to properly inform the market.
This company has a history of delaying bad news ; this is just another example of their corporate failure .

A correction to my previous post that quoted that Genl had $300 of unsecured bonds.

In October 2020 the company issued a new $300m senior unsecured bond with a maturity date in October 2025. Has a fixed coupon of 9.25% per annum.

Genel settled the old bonds.

The Full year results RNS dated 18.3.21 has these lines;

"The Company has taken the opportunity to purchase USD20 million of its own bonds, in order to reduce interest cost but retain optionality."

The half year results ; RNS dated 3.8.21 has these lines

"At 30 June 2021, the fair value of the USD280 million of bonds held by third parties is USD274.4 million (30 June 2020: USD298.5 million, 31 December 2020: USD274.4 million)."

So , our bond debt is a bit smaller. I had forgotten about the $20m reduction; sorry about that; memory let me down.

"Now genk have 33k bopd and a pile of debt right?"

$300m in unsecured bonds is not that big. Look at others who carry BILLIONS.

GENL has a cash pile close to that amount. Also they are OWED $141 m (as of May.)

"Wheres the shares these lying pricks said they were going be buying"

The reasons why UKOG board have not bought shares is very straightforward; dilution.

This company LOSES money. It requires regular huge injections of CASH just to keep the dream chasing machine alive.

In the last four years UKOG has required an average of over ONE MILLION POUNDS each MONTH. (actually works out at £13m plus per annum)
UKOG 'going concern 'status relies on the ability to issue equity ...
Lets look back at the 'open offer' prospectus for clues as to what the future holds;

hTTps://www.ukogplc.com/ul/Open%20Offer%20120721.pdf
9th July

3. Details of the Placing and the Open Offer
As announced on 5 July 2021, the Company has successfully raised £5,000,000 through a placing of 2,763,888,878 Placing Shares at a price of £0.0018 per Ordinary Share.
As per the Company’s notice of general meeting dated 21 May 2021 the Company explained that it will require further funds in the near future for amongst other things, its funding obligations under the agreed work programme for the Resan Licence and any new licence blocks should those be awarded to the Company and its partner. The Company will make available to the Shareholders an opportunity to participate in any fundraising on terms which are the same as the terms that will be offered to any placing to new investors by way of an open offer on a pre-emptive basis. Should an open offer be successful on a cost benefit basis the Company will make available to the Shareholders an opportunity to participate in all future fundraisings"

At least UKOG are not going to have that extra expense from more Turkish licences. Still, there's those "amongst other things "to pay for.

There maybe a bit of 'swings and roundabouts at play'; UKOG save on seismic expense over the blocks they did NOT win; but lose because of the Basur delay and probable extra costs keeping the rig on site while they , belatedly, do seismic BEFORE drilling a sidetrack.

The open offer flopped leaving UKOG short of a possible £4.7m by way over £4m so, sad to say , its now unlikely shareholders will have another wonderful; "opportunity to participate in all future fundraisings"

And there is the clue to the future and WHY directors will not buy shares; " future fundraisings"

Its a clear warning there will be further dilutions because Loxley alone requires £7m of capital UKOG has not got spare.

And what a prospect that next placing will be with a share price now way south of the last ; its going to drag the share down further.

Its not a matter of IF ; its WHEN will UKOG place again.

Good evening Funksoulbrother

Reference your query regarding making a complaint to the FCA.

I know of one serious complaint made in 2018 over two UKOG placing's . You can read it on ADVFN; post number 86778 on the "UKOG strikes oil 2016 " thread. I believe it was a very credible complaint. What happened? I do not know ; probably next to nothing.

When has there been any action against any AIM company for misleading statements?

If investors feel they were deceived into investing anywhere they should consider seeking professional advice. The Royal Bank of Scotland faced huge class actions that ultimately were successful.

86778

HeadInTheSand wrote;

"...how's the directors' RNSed commitment to buy shares in the company every month from the start of July going? Anyone prepared to advance even the slightest and most threadbare of justifications as to why this has not taken place?"

Not a 'justification' below ,but a conclusion based a logical reading of the known facts .

The DDSPP scheme was , imo, only mooted on May 28th as UKOG's financial situation had become perilous. UKOG warned that the company was running out of working capital.

They needed resolutions to pass to allow a massive placing. The DDSPP along with the open offer were bait to encourage votes in favour.

Also worthy of note was the 'Sanderson Out ' campaign.

Sanderson and the board were running scared. They needed to appear more shareholder friendly.

Plenty took the bait with BB comments to the effect that directors buys were a signal of 'confidence'.

Having secured the necessary votes; there was no need to honour the DDSPP they announced. Why would they want to pay 0.24p on the 2nd July (price that day) when they already knew a placing at 0.18p was in the offing.?

UKOG have not even tried to offer an 'excuse' or reassure the DDSPP will be honoured , one day.

The DDSPP announcement has the appearance of a 'confidence trick' that worked ;UKOG got the votes they desperately needed.

Its truly shocking behaviour that displays a cynical contempt for UKOG's investors.

Its also VERY stupid behaviour because the UKOG is less likely to be able to 'con' investors again.

The FACT that the board reneged on the commitment to buy is certainly not a sign of confidence in the shares value; it suggests they see little chance the shares will ever increase in value.

Its not as if they could not have bought shares in the preceding years; its obvious now why they didn't ; dilution after dilution , and more to come.

'if they knew Turkey was a duster '

They had only drilled 367metres by the 1st July. See their 'good progress ' tweet. They could not have known it was a duster on the 2nd July.
The reason I think is clear; they knew a placing at 0.18p was in the offing.
Price to pay on 2nd July was up to 0.24p.

Its all very unsatisfactory as I do not think you can just pick and chose whether to buy in such schemes.

One is left with suspicion that the promise to buy shares was a hollow promise to encourage support for their resolutions and that, once the votes were in the bag, they shamelessly reneged.

Is it possible; even credible, that all directors had a special circumstances that stopped them buying on 2nd July?
UKOG offered no explanations .

By next week we will know for sure whether directors are buying.

Good morning OofyProsser.

Yes. My bad. Its the 2nd of the month that I was looking at. July missed without explanation.

Sorry , my mistake ; First Friday of August is the 6th.

UKOG should notify TODAY if they bought shares yesterday . Read here;

28th May 2020

"Upon commitment to the DDSPP, which is expected to occur in the open period following the publication of UKOG's interim results, due on or before June 30(th) , 2021, the director will purchase shares from the market on the first Friday of each month for a period of 12 months. Consequently, the first DDSPP purchase is expected to occur on Friday July 2(nd) , 2021 and the final purchase on Friday June 3(rd) , 2022.

Upon entering into the DDSPP in an open period the director will be committed to make the monthly purchase of shares under the programme in what otherwise may be a close period. Entering into the DDSPP will not preclude the director from buying additional shares in the Company during open periods. The director will be able to enter a new DDSPP upon completion of an existing programme.

The market will be notified of the share purchases under the DDSPP on the next trading day via a PDMR: Director's dealing notification. Further details will be issued in due course."

Who caused a lot of polite well reasoned and evidenced posts to be removed and why?.

Before today this is the last post of mine that's still up, from Tuesday 27th;

"RE: RNS is out re ope offer Tue 20:40
If only Sanderson has helped the share price by announcing something positive regarding the progress of the Turkish drill. He could have lifted the SP and raised far more money. Just a 'good progress' tweet may have helped.

Logic now suggests that Sanderson could not 'help' the SP over 0.18p because he had nothing 'good' to report from Turkey.

The silence from Turkey MAY indicate all is not entirely well. Sanderson is not known for sitting on 'good' news."

Was I wrong?

Its catastrophic news. The target depths have not been reached yet so a decent find is still possible. Will be a delay , quite significant, and some more cost.

I note these lines; "As the joint venture's new seismic acquisition is scheduled to commence in August 2021, AME have advised that to ensure the sidetrack is optimally located, they plan to pause any drilling until after the acquisition and processing of the new seismic data over the sidetrack's envisaged trajectory."

Seems a lot of posts have been removed. I wonder why?

Genel gets its payments for May; $30.4 million which included $3.5m 'receivable recovery'

$141 now owed by the KRG.

If only Sanderson has helped the share price by announcing something positive regarding the progress of the Turkish drill. He could have lifted the SP and raised far more money. Just a 'good progress' tweet may have helped.

Logic now suggests that Sanderson could not 'help' the SP over 0.18p because he had nothing 'good' to report from Turkey.

The silence from Turkey MAY indicate all is not entirely well. Sanderson is not known for sitting on 'good' news.

"what's not to like"

That HAS to have a factual response;

1.Lets begin with the shares ballooning from 2.59 billion 4 years ago to 15.98 BILLION today

2. £52.675 million raised on the back of dilution (see above) with VERY little to show for the money

3. The company has to have A MILLION QUID EVERY MONTH just to keep the fairy tale going

4. Sanderson constant insistence that something 'potentially transformational' is just around the corner; if he really believed that he would buy some shares.

5. The board failing to honour the promise to cut pay by 20 -50%

6. The boards failure to honour its commitment to buy shares on 2nd July

7. The massive write down in the value of HH and the write OFF of circa £10 million spent in the BB fiasco.

8. The failure to PROMPTLY inform the market when things are going wrong ( see BB above).

9 The kimmeridge 'BILLIONS OF BARREL RECOVERABLE' evaporating with latest annual results showing the Kimmeridge 1c to UKOG at HH now just 300,000 barrels

10 The 2c Portland recoverable now estimated by UKOG at just 600,000 barrels

11. The history of ramping RNS's that turned to dust ; BB being prime example

12 UKOG's tendency to go quiet when there are problems and not fess up promptly

13 The lack of update from Turkey. On 1st July UKOG could tweet the depth drilled with a sunny "good progress' comment. No 'good progress' tweet since and no indication of depth to date.

I could go on and on.......