Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Pokerchips - Another way to look at the total revenue between now and till Q4/26 is taking the combined revenue of 17, 18 and 19 which was $17.7B then knock off 30% to give some safety margin => $12B. As I wrote, PFC did OK till SFO case then Covid. If they manage sort out the financial mess by end of Oct 24 then there is a strong possibility they will survive and flourish.
Pokerchips $8B backlog + 14% of $44B bid pipeline till Dec 24 and the rest till 26 => Total revenue of $12B to Q4/26 is reasonable, IMHO.
Just look at the numbers as they do not lie !
17 Revenue $6.4B, Gross margin $785M, EBIT : S104M
18 Revenue $5.8B, Gross margin $718M, EBIT : $159M
19 Revenue $5.5B, Gross margin $353M, EBIT : $220M
20 Revenue $5.5B, Gross margin $279M, EBIT : -$142M
21 Revenue $3B, Gross margin $130M , EBIT : - $196M
22 Revenue $2.7B, Gross margin $-76M, EBIT : - $217M
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/POFCY/petrofac/financial-statements.
Before SFO case and Covid (which caused contract cancellations and business interruption. These , in turn, resulted in revenue collapse and additional costs) , PFC did reasonable well and even Halliburton was prepared to pay £25/ share for it in 2012
The lenders must have seen and examined latest PFC business plan, provisional Q1/24 trading status and cashflow forecast till Q4/26, and comfortable with the progress of non core asset sale, BEFORE offering to provide $300million (£239million) in fresh credit and to keep PFC going and allowing PFC to miss bond coupon payment, otherwise they would pull the plug by now.
If PFC BOD can convince the lenders with strong proof that the newly won and future contracts have good margins (i.e. 10%+) as before 2019, I strongly believe D4E dilution ratio will not be so bad as the people have predicted (as the major shareholders will fight hard not to let the bondholders or any predator have the company on the cheap) and PFC should be mostly debt free by Q4/26, based on the forecast total revenue (till Q4/26) of $12B and a profit margin of 10%).
ShamI89 - People are rushing to buy shares with the hope of a takeover, RTO or MBO
Snapper - Maybe 3rd time lucky for Halliburton but this time round they only need to pay a fraction of £25, you never know !
Snapper - Halliburton have known PFC well. In fact, Halliburton did look into taking over PFC twice in the past (2012, 2017). https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2246062/MARKET-REPORT-Petrofac-gushes-talk-bid.html.
Gary - Halliburton’ finance: $23B revenue, Gross profit margin ~ +19%, net profit $2.6B vs PFC : 2.6B revenue , Gross profit margin ~ minus 5% and $340M loss in 22. PFC BOD have to improve the margin significantly. If not, they have no future.
Snapper10 - "Wheres this 10% margin going to come from..... ?" That's is the challenging job which PFC BOD have to show/prove to the lenders not mine !
PC - The debt holders will only want out if they see no decent profit/ return for them to stay in. If PFC can prove with good evidence that they have 10%+ margin on the recently won contracts then they will not dump the diluted shares .
Ivorgriffiths - The creditors/ lenders are not charity workers, they must have seen and examined the book, provisional Q1/24 trading status and cashflow forecast till Q4/24 at least, and comfortable with the progress of non core asset sale, before offering to provide $300million (£239million) in fresh credit to keep PFC, otherwise they would pull the plug by now.
If PFC has had more uncontrollable , unrepayable debts since Jan 24. Who in the right mind would to offer them $300million (£239million) in fresh credit ?
If PFC does not have any valuable asset, will not able to repay the current debts and is going bust. Who would be so stupid to lend them money now ?
The share price @ 4.30pm tomorrow will determine the D4E dilution ratio , takeover/ RTO or MBO price ?
Dan22 - This is not the first time PFC delays publishing results. Previous occasions (including extra time for the auditors to finish the works), the share suspension did not take place
Please remember request to suspend can be withdrawn anytime before the suspension takes effect. Normally, the suspension kicks in less 24 hours or even with immediate effect not 48 hours. Something fishy is here .
In the hope of a takeover , RTO or MBO.
That usual practice is for a normal company but this is PFC
If Tues 30th Apr was 22/23 FY result release date and for updating details on its operational and financial performance then the BOD and auditors would have the final draft by now for review and sign off by Mon pm.
Petrosaga - No need to say sorry as I am the one should say that. I should have read the article carefully and double check before dissemination , instead of just looking at the date (18th Apr 2024)
Https://www.meed.com/petrofac-awards-sub-contract-on-adnoc-carbon-capture-project.