Member Info for Cuban_Cigar

PhatStyle4321 - On 31st Oct PFC began to work on the 700m contract which was awarded by ADNOC on Jun 30/ 23 . It meant they were able to get advance Payment and performance bonds (up to $70m) for it. Hopefully, a similar update about $615m ADNOC contract won on 4th Oct 23 will be available by end of Feb 24. https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/european-contracting-giant-kicks-off-work-on-strategic-adnoc-gas-facility/2-1-1544415?zephr_sso_ott=xMKnAJ

Traxpern - Let's assume BOD and advisors/ consultants done their bits successfully -sorting out the temporary cashflow and legacy issues by Q1/24, correcting the balance sheet and improving their margin to 4-5% by Q1/25 plus no takeover bid then I can see dividend will be restored and an EBITDA of at least ~$300m by Q4/25.

Traxpern - " would increase the project win percentage rate would it not?" Yes, it would, as success builds upon success. BTW, 14% win rate is prior to new and renewable energy projects. So $8.7B is min.

Traxpern - from historical data, PFC has had only an average hit/ winning rate of 14% => only $8.7B ....

PaddiG - With enormous and critical tasks at hand, no way they can complete by Wed 20th Dec. The best they can do at the moment is obtaining a bridging loan to give PFC a breathing space 3 – 6 months till the funds are available from sale and restructuring. I prefer them go through the review thoroughly and carefully as it is their last throw of the dice.

PaddiG - Generally speaking, businesses sell for between three and six times their EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) and H1/23 EBITDA of IES (which incl. PM304) ~ $48m , based on $96/bbl. Now oil ~$75/bbl => 2023 EBITDA of IES~ $85.5m . So If PFC could offload the whole IES then they could get between $256 m and $513m.

Snapper10 - I am sure the lenders, PFC’s clients and suppliers will use your analysis and assessment to make informed decisions instead of the ones from S&P and Fitch . Ha ha ha.

With asset sale of IES for ~$60-70m ?? In the past ,PFC did the same thing for $150m on average ! Who would be mad or stupid to sell an profitable business with EBITDA of ~90m for 70m ?. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-petrofac-firstreserve/petrofac-forms-1-25-billion-venture-as-it-refocuses-business-idINKBN0F11IN20140626/

If I owe you 10K I would be afraid of you but if I owe you 600m, then who have sleepiness nights then ?

"the Contractor is aware of the nature of this type of Bond as any Collateral given could be enforced if the Surety is Demanded to pay the Employer" - IES with EBITDA of US$65 million as a Collateral ? It is a matter of negotiation, in a nutshell.

Snapper10 - So you are much more superior than the analysists and researchers @ Fitch and S&P then..

Snapper10 - What are you going to say about this then ? Please do not insult your own intelligence or degrade your own common sense. .https://suretybondsandguarantees.co.uk/surety_bonds/performance_bonds.aspx

Snapper10- Performance Bonds / Contract Bonds are issued for 10% (max) of the contract value then it costs from 1% to 10% of the Bond amount using a fixed rate but some Surety markets quote per annum to get them. If all PFC’s contracts ~ $6.6B then it will cost them $66m (max) to get the total bonds of $660m.

Ayman Asfari's net worth £800m, his 85m PFC shares now worth ~£17m (vs £68m a year ago) and his newly formed Venterra Group Plc is in good financial health => we should not be surprised AA is one of the white knights.

Jarv55 - Not only they got the contract, they began to work on the project last month . It meant they were able to get advance Payment and performance bonds for it. https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/european-contracting-giant-kicks-off-work-on-strategic-adnoc-gas-facility/2-1-1544415?zephr_sso_ott=xMKnAJ

Snapper10 - How much does it cost to get Advance Payment and performance bonds ?

The sale of non-core assets is ONE parts of its efforts to bolster its balance sheet, secure bank guarantees and enhance short-term liquidity. Let their lenders and clients be the judges in the few days. In the meantime, I am just trying to find out what can be sold and how much would they get based on historical data. OK?

Snapper - 5% but it has the highest EBITDA margin, EBIT and Net margin and it is non core business and the only profitable division. Its H1/ 23 revenue ~ US$63 million with business performance EBITDA of US$48 million= > the target selling price should be at least $200m for a quick sale .

Yes, there is and its looks promising - Integrated Energy Services is Petrofac’s upstream oil and gas business. Our interest in the Production Sharing Contract (PSC) for Block PM304, Malaysia’s offshore Cendor field, is the sole asset in the portfolio. Results IES delivered another strong financial performance in the first half with revenue of US$63 million (2022: US$56 million), higher year-on-year due to an increase in production compared to the prior period.

Do they still have something similar to sell this time round ? If yes, then they will be OK. https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/uks-petrofac-sells-north-sea-assets-to-ithaca-energy-for-292-million/65548352