Member Info for Cuban_Cigar

Ayman Asfari's net worth £800m, 85m shares worth ~£18 m , Petrofac' debt ~ £652m, so I doubt it very much he is going to buy PFC outright. However, he might lend them ~£50 - £100m on a temporary basis to weather storm and help them to borrow more or have the repayment deadlines extended from other lenders.

Hereshopin - Why not ? It's time for the them to put their money where their mouths are as it will help to convince the lenders that the PFC directors have confidence in their plan / proposal to turnround the company..

It would be nice if some PFC directors bought few hundred thousand shares in the company at this price

As the contract was NOT cancelled and PFC has started ....https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/european-contracting-giant-kicks-off-work-on-strategic-adnoc-gas-facility/2-1-1544415.

Well done and thank you.

Put yourself in the lender’ shoes. Would you put pressure to cause PFC to collapse and losing almost everything (as it is an asset light company) or you lend them a bit more, accepting lower repayments, wait for a bit longer ~ 3- 6 months to get your payments and more interests from recent awarded contracts and legacy works ? Your answers will tell us how smart you are .

BTW, Everyone - the stock market, in particular hates unpleasant , nasty surprises. However, PFC have warned in advance in their H1/23 results - not everything is under their control when collecting payments to repay debts. Therefore, not many lenders would get caught out if PFC did not pay enough or on time. On the contrary, they might be happy to see it happened :)

Bob-hope . You only need to go Reuters' website directly and search for "Petrofac" then you will see the last article on Petrofac from them was on 3rd Oct 23. They did not release any news about Petrofac on 1st Dec 23. Hence, ii is safe to conclude that " Reuters - Petrofac sinks to record low; analysts flag balance sheet concerns " was fake news.

Onsolidground - for completeness , on the same date - 27th Sep 23, S&P also released its rating on PFC. https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3060560. Fitch and S&P gave the same ratings. It should be noted, unlike Carillion which had 3 major contracts were cancelled before collapsing, till now PFC has none !

Https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2023/09/the-informed-board/how-to-guard-against-a-short-attack#:~:text=In%20the%20face%20of%20a,seller's%20accusations%20point%20by%20point

Just looking at historical info., PFC did get a few of them in the previous Dec's. Let's see Dec 23 is anything different

The BOD could do much more ! https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2023/09/the-informed-board/how-to-guard-against-a-short-attack#:~:text=In%20the%20face%20of%20a,seller's%20accusations%20point%20by%20point

Elements that could, Individually or collectively, lead to the increase in share price ; completion of the remaining legacy contracts disrupted by Covid 19 , having neutral-to-positive FCF, recovery in the order book with no evidence of deterioration in the new orders' quality or margin dilution a sustained basis, improving project diversification.

Correct. Good investment if you have spare cash, will not lose any sleep if everything's fallen apart and can wait till 25/26. However, Fitch ratings's worst case analysis on PFC - Petrofac would be reorganised as a going-concern (GC) in bankruptcy rather than liquidated. It mainly reflects Petrofac's strong market position, engineering capabilities, customer relationships and asset-light business model, following disposals in the integrated energy services division.

Fitch ratings has pencilled in the dividends of about USD90 million in 2025 and USD100 million in 2026. No dividends in 2023-2024

PaddiG -

In Dec trading update, if Petrofac could confirm the company to be cash neutral in 2023 with some positive potential, had sufficient liquidity and had completed of the remaining legacy contracts disrupted by the pandemic then the share price would be in the region 65 to 90p easily.

Agreed. I have had the same problem and had to spend some time to correlate their accounting terminologies to the UK ones

Capital provision income = Revenue

Operating income = Operating Profit / (Loss)

Income/(loss) before income taxes = Profit Before Tax

Total cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities = Cash at Bank & In Hand =

Finance costs + Loss on debt extinguishment = Net Interest

Total shareholders' equity = Net Assets= Total Equity

Once, I have done that I feel more comfortable with their latest financial results (Q3/2023) released on 9th Nov as for nine months ended September 30 23

Revenue = $676 M

Operating Profit / (Loss) = $315M

Profit Before Tax =$296M

= Cash at Bank & In Hand =$339M

2023 will certainly beat their previous best result (in 2018)