Member Info for Ctw2014

Also they are apparently in a period of exclusivity on a proposed sale of the services division which would give a decent cash boost of it comes off. Initial commercial sales of the HCV test have commenced and should drive increased revenues. I doubt funding is a problem in the near term. I haven’t got a copy of the full Peel Hunt note but, as you probably know, their target here is an enticing £1.50!

Hi Maplinman The interims gave unaudited cash at end of Fen 2018 as 3.9m if that helps.

Just spotted these targets for 2018 production in the Annual Report: 40,000 sq metres of processed slabs (compared to the 14,000 sq metres produced Sept-Dec and 8 times the amount sold in 2017) and 20,000 tons of blocks (over double the production in 2017). So at 72 euros per sq metre and 170 euros a ton that’s revenue of 2,880,000 and 3,400,000 respectively or a total of 6,280,000, assuming the targets are achieved and it’s all sold. While we are unlikely to sell it all in 2018 the production targets look very achievable (40,000 sq metres of slabs is not much more than the current rate of production). Break even or even profit looks possible to me in 2018 on these numbers. I am not getting carried away about Stone Alliance just yet as it is early days, but if they do make a funding announcement this year that will be a major bonus. It’s important to note that funding for this will be done outside of Fox Marble so no dilution.

Thanks Sonofelvis. Good to know.

I know what you mean. The trouble is that as impatient investors we all have a tendency to think more time is passing than is in fact the case, especially if you look at it from the perspective of actually trying to build the business/develop applications/build sales etc. I wouldn’t say I am relaxed either, but logically this should come good - just a matter of time.

We were told drilling etc was due to start in April and take about two months. As we haven’t heard anything to the contrary I assume that is what is happening. Sign off of the agreement isn’t due to happen until completion of the current work programme.

I applaud your efforts to analyse the figures Talygarntom but, with respect, I think there are some flaws in the analysis and the approach is over simplistic. You have taken as your starting point the production tonnage of 8811, whereas the more relevant figures are the sales volumes which were 4641 tonnes plus 5000 sq metres of processed slabs. The average sales prices are given as 170 euros per tonne for blocks and 72 euros per sq metre for slabs. If you do the maths on those numbers you get revenue of 1,148, 970, not a million miles away from the quoted revenue of 1,203,270 (the difference presumably being the result of using averages). A large proportion of our costs will either be fixed or non recurring. So a better guide to margin would be to look at the direct cost of sales, which was 795,895. So, from that cost, we generated about half that in gross profit. Ignoring head office costs etc therefore the margin is currently about 50%. We know the margin on processed marble is much higher than with blocks and, with the completion of the factory, we can expect the proportion of processed marble to constitute a higher proportion of sales going forward. If you assume conservatively doubling block sales and quadrupling processed slab sales (never mind the even higher margins on tiles) you get to revenue of over 3m euros of which about 1.5m would be gross profit (probably more if you assume cost of sales declining as a proportion of revenue). Knock off 0.5m costs on non recurring plant and equipment purchases and say a similar amount for non recurring quarry development and you are only about 0.5m from breakeven. All very crude admittedly but we dont know the precise margins or have clear view of how margins will improve with the sale of more in house processed marble, but my feeling is that the prospects are rosier than your calculations would suggest.

Notmuchinsales obviously created his username to knock this share for whatever historical reason and is clearly not invested, unless he includes himself in the deluded camp! Actually, some cynicism is justified as sales have indeed been slower than all of us invested would have liked. However, revenues are up 50%; gross operating profits are up by a third, ongoing financing costs have been slashed and the balance sheet strengthened. We are getting there slowly and the turning point will come. Looking on the positive side, we have 3 producing quarries and a fully equipped and producing factory with virtually no debt. The 0.76m debt we do have isn’t due for repayment until 2019 and in any event is convertible at a higher price than the current sp. Output and margins are both on the up. We are invested for the future, not the past, and we are at the point at which growth could start increasing exponentially. We are not there yet, but could well be soon imo. Thanks for the good luck wishes notmuchinsales and I wish you good luck in whatever you might be invested in elsewhere.

Good to see Amati increasing its stake from 1.99% to 4.18% as well as the Pru who have a much bigger chunk.

Various figures about the repayment of debt are given in the narrative but if you look at the consolidated statement of the financial position borrowings at 31/12/17 totalled more than 3.4m whereas we are told that at 30/4/18 debt comprised just .76m in convertible loan notes. That is a considerable strengthening of the balance sheet and will materially reduce financing costs going forward.

Myfairlady’s point would be fair enough if it didn’t overlook the fact that the money raised in January was used to reduce debt by 2.7m euros, invest 500k in the quarries to increase production, and buy a CNC machine to cut tiles to order.

Disappointing that the results for 2017 were not a bit better. However, the key thing for me is that in 2018 net cash only reduced from .5m euros to .4m euros in the 4 months 1/1/18 to 30/4/18. If that was maintained for the whole year our loss would be only .3m euros. We are getting close to break even and may even see profit in 2018 if production and sales keep accelerating.

Thanks for the updates Dactions and unvrkw. Good to see some confidence returning here. Only way is up now imo.

.....unkrvw. You moved the SP all by yourself on Monday. Keep on at it please! Lol

There has been no sell off Troy, just that there aren’t many posters here. That’s half our trouble, we are way off most PIs radar. Hopefully that will change as soon as we get positive news on initial sales for the HCV kit. It doesn’t take much to move this share as today’s solitary sell shows. We just need a decent bit of buying on the back of some positive news and off we will go.

Someone’s just gone through 5% which explains the recent buying/rise in sp.

Likewise Mr Cautious. At least you have some investments outside your AIM portfolio. My Aim portfolio is pretty much all there is!

Anybody here go?

Everyone is entitled to their opinion but there is no way this is a scam. The factory has indeed been up and running for a while. These further bits of kit just increase capacity and flexibility, as well as improving margins on blocks that would otherwise not be top grade. The SP will rise once trade figures are released imo. Have a listen to today’s Directors Talk interview of Chris Gilbert. Apparently they can’t dig the stuff out of the ground quickly enough to meet demand from places like India and Turkey. This share has had its problems from delays and slow sales in the past but I believe all that is about to change for the good. Each to their own though.

Good to see money invested to increase capacity and margins. Like the reference to ‘increased order flows’. Hopefully we will get a positive trading update soon.