Member Info for Ctw2014

I like liked the interview. Good to get confirmation that H1 was essentially just two months of block sales. With stockpiling of blocks and the factory fully functional, the Winter shutdown in the quarries will be much less of an issue going forward. This Chinese deal looks solid and Dubai sounds very promising. Profitability not far off now methinks. Looking forward to the next trading update. Should be a good one.

I am not clear about the rules on closed periods, and this is pure speculation, but given the rather deadpan nature of the presentation of the results, and the low sp, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see some Director buys now, or at least some substantial buys from others close to the action.

I think this morning’s prices confirm (to me at least) that the 1.25m trade was a sell, offsetting some of the big buys we have been seeing over the last couple of days. We will probably never know what was behind those big trades unless someone crossed a reporting threshold. I was hoping, to be honest, for a bit more post period end news (although Dubai looks extremely positive). However, the key bit of information, as has already been pointed out, is cash. As at 30th June 2018, this stood at €154k. On 31st July we took out €300k in loan notes (at conversion prices of 10/10.5p). So, €454k, precisely the amount in the bank at 24/9/18. In the last two months, therefore, cash has not reduced, despite, for example, having taken delivery this month of a new tile line at the factory. Now, there may be ups and downs in cash flow and one can’t read too much into the last couple of months but, as others have said, it is clear the corner has been turned now. This company is massively de risked and clearly approaching profitability. It is also available at close to an all time low share price. I don’t mean to ramp, and obviously everyone should do their own research, but for me this is now a clear buy and hold.

My money is on a sell. It explains the odd price action. If they were all buys, including that one, the price should have gone through the roof. As big sells have balanced (broadly) the big buys, it has stayed more or less stable.

I hate to say it chaps but that 1.25m trade looks like a sell to me, which has obviously been worked over the last few days, and which explains why we have not seen a significant rise on the big buys. Interesting times!

And that explains the MM’s dropping the bid and ask back earlier. Still dwarfed by the big buys in the last few days though.

It’s in the last operational update of 31st July, first paragraph!

Normal price movement resumed on actual buys this morning although the MMs have moved the published bid and ask back down.

When you think where we are in the business cycle, it’s a bit of a joke (or a massive bargain!) that we are sitting at a whisker above the all time low sp.

I would like to think that the delay is a result of more post period end news being squeezed in at the last minute.

Sneaky little top up for me before the results tomorrow. Bound to be something positive included post period end imo. Someone has been loading up big these past few days.

Who on earth buys 20 shares at 21p!?

Hi Troy. I have emailed the company more generally to ask what they intend to do in PR terms (including hopefully saying positive things about HCV kit commercialisation) to arrest/reverse the long decline in SP we have suffered as shareholders. I won’t hold my breath though. My experience is that they are great at answering technical questions about the product but crap at promoting the company and responding to shareholder concerns in respect of the sp. I think we already have an institutional investor mopping up shares sold by frustrated PIs (scroll back though the trades and you will see some chunky buys). A drop of 7.5% on less than £2500 in sells is ridiculous of course, but that’s what you get with an illliquid share. In theory it should work in reverse, but the cynic in me thinks that the sp is being held down to allow someone/entity to accumulate cheap at PIs expense. They are not getting mine though!

Good point!

Well, we seem to be getting cheaper all the time sadly. Obviously POG isn’t helping but with the cash this company is generating we ought to be doing better. Time the company announced a shareback strategy or dividend policy to perk the market up a bit. This is just death by a thousand knives

I agree Troy and hope that turns out to be the case.

We were at 7.13 on 27/9/17 and up to 13.25 by 11/1/18 so I am not unduly concerned at this drop, especially knowing what we do about future revenues. We won’t have to wait 6months for more news as the Interims should be out in Sept. I may well top up again if I can generate some cash from elsewhere in my portfolio.

Hi Well the grant of the options is one thing, and the exercise something else, of course. They won’t exercise them until the SP is higher and they are in clear profit.

Very good in my view and a clear indication that we can expect much higher revenues going forward.

Great, let’s hope you get a reply. They are not always the best at responding to emails. I agree with what you say, which is why I think the revenue from those orders has not yet come in. If that’s right, H2 should be good. We may even get an improved cash position with the interims.