Member Info for Ctw2014

1) We have a new cornerstone investor in for 12.78% of the company at a price of 23p per share, with a further £2.5m in loan notes convertible at 28.75p; 2) The Pru (M&G) and Calculus both took large additional chunks in the placing at 23p; 3) The Directors took decent amounts in the placing at 23p; and 4) Odey have been reducing their stake but presumably mostly at higher prices than at today’s SP. We also know that, in the past, The Pru have taken a lot from Odey off market. Given that the major shareholders (including Odey) must be holding at higher prices than today’s one would hope that the things ought to take a turn for the better sometime soon. Perhaps when Mr 10k runs out of shares or at least stops selling!

And there is another one for 10k at .19 so clearly someone is still selling regularly!

I actually think that 2019 will be pivotal (if not transformational). In the next six months we should amongst other things see an expansion of the distribution network for the HCV kit, progress on the 30 in country registrations, and commercial sales ‘traction’. Presumably Odey won’t be selling ‘at any price’ so at some point one would hope the the Pru, Amati etc will have to look to the open market if they want more. Even if they don’t particularly want more, buying a few on the open market would massively boost the value of the stock they already hold, so it would be a good move imo.

No I don’ t think Odey are selling on the open market, although we know they sold a chunk to the Pru off market a while back. As I am typing this I see an RNS has been issued this morning showing that Odey are now down to 5.5% from over 10% so it will be interesting to see if we get a corresponding uplift from the Pru or Amati. Last time there was quite a gap between the two RNSs. It maybe that Odey were also dribbling some onto the market too, as you suggest. Either way, it’s not helping!

Or Amati Aim VCT Plc who were buying at the beginning of May at way above this level? In fact I wonder if they gave Genedrive the idea that they could qualify for VCT status? If either were to buy on the open market, rather than from Odey, this would rocket. Even a small amount of buying in chunks over a few weeks would send this up nicely and restore value to their existing holdings. It’s what I would do if I were them and still believed in the story here.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pru buying more at this level. We are now below the level they were buying at in January.

Agreed. Mildly irritating too that they put out an RNS saying the annual report is available on the website before they have in fact put it on there.

Let’s hope that last post isnt a Gerald Ratner moment!

But it clearly states they will issue an update if it’s not secured, so no news is good news in this case.

Ok Earache, let’s put it down to crossed wires. For what it’s worth (1) for 99% of the time I am using the mobile site, which has no reply button, nor does it show reccs; (2) I still think all the trades yesterday were buys, except the trades at 18.10, which were sells. Personally, I take little notice of the published bid/ask/spread as these frequently bear little relation to the reality revealed by actual or dummy trades. The last trade on the 30th at 18.00 was pretty clearly a sell imo so it’s pretty likely that the early trades on the 3rd at 18.75 were buys. There were indeed more buys than sells, which is why the actual ask (ie real buys) went up to 19.00. Nothing at all unusual about the pattern of trades imo. Same actual spread today (oops yesterday now) 18.10/19.00. ATB and lets hope for a turnaround here on news.

Blimey Earsche, why ask the question if you don’t want others to give their view? My response was based on the pattern of actual trades and has been backed by other posters who say they did the actual buys. Even you speculated that they might be buys (correctly in my view) and then you castigate folk for agreeing??? Wow.

All bar the last two trades of the day look like buys to me.

There is little doubt that IIs or higher net worth individuals are mopping up cheap shares sold by small private investors. It might be frustrating not to have news, and I am sure you are correct that the big boys will be kept informed, but sooner or later they will want to see a return on their investment and we will all benefit when finally news comes and the share price is allowed to recover by pi’s being reassured and buying instead of selling. Just a matter of nerve and patience methinks.

That dog turd comment made me laugh out load on an otherwise miserable day. Will have to remember that one!

I think some people are moving money into cash as a lot of stocks on AIM are getting hammered and have been for most of 2018. Fox is actually holding up pretty well, probably because it is not being traded and most holders realise the potential just around the corner.

On the tax rebate, that is 30% on the cost of your shares I think, not what they are worth now.

Oops, momentary brain failure/optimism overdose. My last post is wrong. Although 50% up from here is a start, as I said before, I need a 100% + rise to recover from being 50%+ down. Sad face.

PS: if your right and it goes up 20%, with a 30% tax rebate, I will actually be pretty close to breakeven. An unexpected bonus of 30% is a pretty decent plus if you ask me. AIM has been a disaster zone in 2018. GDR is not the only share to have suffered.

Oh dear, clearly you are not happy and fair enough. Your hopefully tongue in cheek suggestion that I must work for Peel Hunt did make me giggle though. Look, I am certainly not happy that I am more than 50% down on this share. However, looking at where we are today, this is an excellent fund raise in my opinion. True, if there was some conspiracy to work the price down over months to get the placing away at a low price, that would stink. Whilst AIM is pretty bent, I doubt that is the case though. True there have been some odd trades and occasions where.you would have expected the price to react differently, but it’s hard to get a clear view of what’s going on from where we sit. I think the biggest problem has been a lack of buying pressure pure and simple, not helped by the ridiculously wide published spread. Most placings on AIM at the moment have been at substantial discounts and this wasn’t. I might be an optimist but I choose not to believe that was a result of a criminal conspiracy over several months. The delay with the HCV test is dissappointing but they have given reasons and the initial sales are not really commercial sales; they are to support registration activity and marketing efforts. I am more disappointed with the TB delay to be honest, but there were clearly some pretty big problems with the original sample preparation processes. These things always take longer than anticipated or hoped for. The Hardman research published by the company flagged up the likelihood of a fundraise, so we shouldn’t really be surprised by it. I am just glad it was not at a big discount to the sp! I hope the company pulls its finger out a bit on PR now. They need to do something to start generating shareholder value. Not much of a response from the market at all today, one way or the other. We need PIs to buy some shares. It won’t help much if we trash the company we are invested in, although I understand your frustration. I don’t expect to see my money back for a good while, let alone any profit, although at some stage I might contemplate averaging down to bring that day closer. The order from the US DoD is great news. Note that it was their first DEPLOYMENT purchase. We could see some more. Yes, I remain an optimist here.

And the placing is completed on the same day - fantastic. How many micro cap companies on AIM do you know that could raise £5.6 - 6.1m at the current mid price in today’s market!? Participation from a cornerstone investor and the Directors too. Shows real confidence. Feeling much better about my investment here now, especially with the tax breaks that we now qualify for.