Member Info for Ctw2014

Well, the drop has certainly worked wonders for volume and liquidity here, albeit for all the wrong reasons! Pity to see the back of M&G because they were a great name to have in the share register. Got to admit I am jealous of those getting in at these levels and would certainly be tempted to top up/average down at these levels if I had some ready cash available.

See previous post.

What is interesting is that, in the past, it would be quite difficult to get a quote to sell. It would often go to no trade and you would have to place an order if you actually wanted to sell. Now, it would be easy to sell a decent quantity, but at a stupidly low price. The market makers are not in doubt that they will be able to sell any they buy, which is positive and suggests to me that they are simply trying to take advantage of a disappointing RNS by panicking shareholders into selling. So far not many are.

In my view they should slash R&D for now to preserve cash and focus on sales of HCV in India, US DoD and getting AHIL on the market ASAP. This company still has excellent prospects. It just needs to adopt the right strategy to get itself to decent revenues whilst preserving cash for all its worth. Market makers will rip you off on sells now and have widened the live spread to a ridiculous extent. Not held this long to bail out at this critical point, and be mugged so hanging on in.

Disappointed to be frank. The SP will no doubt be hit hard. Will just have to hunker down and hope. The next six to twelve months will be tricky.

Last chance to get in or top up before the interims, due out tomorrow.

A big hint for sure. Divi or share buy back or both I should think - time will tell.

Good find Rpks. All looking good. Shouldn’t be long now before we get sign off.

.....due on Tuesday which might give this a bit of a boost with a decent update re post period end progress.

I still say that the main reason we are at this level is nothing to do with Dan. Its because we have a seller, selling into all the buys. However, the stable SP does suggest a big buy being worked also, as others have suggested. The seller will stop at some point, then this will rise quick in my opinion. Good luck all.

Yes, I should have referred to an expected trading update following the business update, as per last year.

I don’t think they know anything we don’t. I think a few are selling because they are worried that the results expected any day now will disappoint the market and/or suggest the need for a placing. Looking back on the RNSs though, I would say that such nervousness is probably misplaced. All the signs are that the results will be positive and demonstrate continuing growth and excellent potential. I doubt a placing is coming. They have had significant recent payments, have decent bank facilities and would, I am sure, be loath to place at these prices. Personally, I am looking forward to the results but each to their own I guess! All imo and DYOR

I think the concerns are overblown. Looking forward to the update due over the next few days.

With all due respect, I think folks are over complicating the put option business, which is very clearly explained in the RNS. 60,000 ounces is roughly the entire production for H1. They have bought put options which give them the option (but no obligation) to sell those ounces at the strike price of £1350. Clearly the options will not be exercised unless the gold price falls below £1350 but, if it does, then they know that they can at least get the £1350 for the ounces sold under the options, thus ensuring that they can meet debt repayments. In effect, as the RNS states, they have put a floor under the gold price. It may well be that the number of ounces covered by the options reduces by a sixth each month but, if so, it matters not. If the price only falls below £1350 in the 6th month of the half year, and by that stage the cover provided by the options has reduced to only 10,000 ounces, fine, because that's all they have left to produce in that half year, having sold the other 50,000 at market rates above the strike price. It works the same way if they are only covered for 10,000 ounces in any of the six months, as they will only have 10,000 ounces to sell in any month. The precise mechanics don't matter but I am confident that the effect is as described. Any other interpretation is simply inconsistent with the plain words of the RNS in my opinion.

The low cost put option route seems very sensible risk management to me.

Yes, and a great article it is too. Love the stuff about potentially using the kit for other illnesses.

Well, the deadline, as we know, is 31st March, but I got the distinct impression that it would be a lot earlier than that.

In his last video interview he said he expected due diligence to be completed early in the New Year, however you define that.

See “Use of proceeds .......etc” in the circular re prepayment and cancellation of the outstanding balance of the RCF and financing of ongoing working capital requirements.

Well, to correct myself it does say that ‘pro forms cash’ is after allowing for the disposal but I assume £150m is committed in some way other what’s the meaning of the reference to an average monthly balance of £100m?