Member Info for Ctw2014

Correction to my previous post: the numbers I quote are from the preliminary results presention dated 7th October 2019, rather than the Annual Report, but both are available on the website.

So, the Annual Report, now available on the website, confirms the potential number of tests at 90k pa and usefully gives a modelled test price of £35 per test. That’s £3.15 million pa in the UK alone! On top of that, presumably, is the sales revenue for the Genedrive kit itself. Back in 2017, in the context of the HCV test, I was told the unit cost was £4000. Obviously the number sold will depend on the number of relevant medical units caring for sick babies, but there must be quite a few. This looks like over taking the HCV test as being, along with the US DoD biohazard kit, the main drivers of near term revenues. Not that long ago the AIHL test wasn’t even on the radar, at least publicly. There can be little doubt that the test will be adopted by the NHS, in my view. We already know it works quickly enough and is accurate, and, apart from the clear health benefits of detection, there are clear economic benefits to the NHS of £50k per case for implants once the damage has been done.

Technick yes it’s good to see green shoots of interest growing for this, given how off the radar it seems to be. The lack of a tick up is probably because they have a sell order to fill. Nevertheless, things are slowly picking up.

That article struck me as pretty encouraging for a positive outcome from the due diligence by the way!

The question marks were meant to be happy smiling faces :-)

A mixture of dividend, share buy back and new investment would do very nicely, thanks ??????

That coupled with the agreement not to transfer ownership

I think that last bit is a garbled reference to the exclusive right to do due diligence until the end of the year.

I thought it might be useful, for anyone just looking in here, if I summarise what I see as the key points about GDR as it stands at present:
GDR has developed and is marketing a unique relatively low cost and portable molecular testing device, with a number of actual and potential applications.
Market Cap only £6m, not many shares in circulation, and major II investors.
Cash in bank at 26/9/19 £3.9m, so no short term need to raise.
Debt held on favourable terms with loans from the Global Health Investment Fund and the Business Growth Fund not maturing until December 2023 and June 2025 respectively.
Revenues to 30/6/19 up 21.9%.
Product development part funded by grants.
Hardman's estimate of gross margins on product sales 82%.
US DoD a customer (bio hazard detection) and further orders on hand for delivery in 2019/20.
HepC (HCV) test registered for sale in 12 countries.
Test for antibiotic related hearing loss in babies (AIHL) being trialled in two NHS hospitals, due to conclude in May 2020. Test results can be delivered in less than 30mins. No commercial competitors. Potentially massive market in the NHS and health care systems in the USA, Canada, Europe, Japan etc.
TB test in development.
Short term catalysts include World Health Organisation (WHO) pre qualification status for the HCV test, launch of advanced sample preparation cartridges, CE marking of the AIHL test (all expected by end of calendar year 2019) confirmation of further sales to the US DoD (and maybe other defence organisations).
No advice given. Please do your own research.

Well, to state the obvious, the MMs, not the company, set the spread and don't give a monkey's about supporting either the business or its investors. Looking on the bright side, whilst deterring buyers somewhat, the wide spread should also discourage sells pending the arrival of news. Anyone selling at 16p is being ripped off, in my view, as we know the spread narrows rapidly as soon as there is a bit of volume.

And there is your RNS! Great news and clearly more airlines will follow Swiss Worldcargo. Bosch have been really stepping up the marketing of the TDL140 and there is little doubt that orders will come and this will be a good earner for Star.

Yes and they say that they understand that the due diligence is nearing completion and expect to be able to report the outcome shortly. It is clear from the expected spend in the current quarter that they are holding back further drilling etc until the results are out, so as to conserve cash.

BUTD is positive when he is in, and negative when he is out. Simple.

With the right catalyst (successful conclusion of due diligence) can we do an EUA? Discuss.

Yes MM’s have widened the spread to a silly extent again, but the live buy price is 20.75 so they are definitely buys. Probably busy elsewhere (EUA) and can’t be bothered to make a market here right now! Seriously though, I think this will move up pretty quickly as soon as positive news is released and we get even a modest amount of volume.

Good to see the predicted newsflow set out in the latest Hardman research note.

Slightly annoying that someone accepted 16p today, well below the bid, and practically wiping out yesterday’s gain in one trade. Very unlikely to have made anything either. MMs will take the mickey on this share if people let them. It will need news to generate sustained volume to stabilise it and reduce volatility. Hopefully we will not have to wait too long but this is not, thankfully, a traders share; more a medium and long term hold.

I would just like to correct something from the earlier discussion. There is no evidence, imo, that Catherine Booth has sold any of her shareholding. The January holdings RNS simply reflected the dilution effect on her holding of the December fund raise down to just under 3%. So nothing on the public record to suggest she has sold a bean imo. All looking good here. Further orders from the US DoD could drop any time, the trial for the test for antibiotic related hearing loss in babies is underway in two NHS hospitals and could be a huge opportunity, the HCV test should hopefully be gaining traction in the 12 countries it’s already registered in and hopefully we will see more registrations in the next update, and of course there is the TB test in development. Plenty of cash in the bank and not many shares in circulation. Firm hold for me and may well top up as and when cash is available. GLA

......a sensible spread!

Well done. Looks like whoever it was who bought at 28p (and I am guessing it wasn’t you!) changed their mind half an hour later and sold at a loss. I thought that was an odd jump, even for this share!