Member Info for Ctw2014

This probably explains the up tick in buys this am. Great article and I love Keith’s reference to ‘the main off taker we are talking to’. It’s all looking very good here imo.

Welcome Uinsionn and congratulations on the timing of your entry into this stock. With your entry price you should do very well. I confess to being somewhat jealous as I am currently well under water, but still think I will make money here, eventually. Any help you can give in getting the word out there (e.g. via twitter) would be gratefully received as this one is still very much under the radar of most PIs. You will have seen how quickly this can move (both ways) on very low volume, so it would only take a few buyers to turn things around.

I wouldn't say the SP has been "hammered" actually Troy. We have had only a few small sells this morning and we are net down about 6% if you allow for yesterday's rise of 5%. As we know, the MMs do punish sells harder than they reward buys here but once we gain the confidence of the market we will see this soar, imo. The delay with the HCV test commercialisation is frustrating and is obviously why we got the opposite reaction than the one we were hoping for on the trading update, but with a bit of luck Budd will do an interview and provide some reassurance. My guess is that they just underestimated the pace of bureaucracy so far as the in country registrations are concerned. The funding for HCV tests issue may be something that WHO will be lobbying to address, but we do in any event represent a low cost option, as you know. The antibiotics related hearing loss project shows lots of promise and that seems to be moving faster than expected, but in the short term I think it is the US DoD which will be our knight in shining white armour, so to speak. The language on prospects for future orders is getting noticeably more bullish. GDR is gaining slightly more interest on twitter which helps but we don't seem to have that much company on this board yet, apart from Riddler (who is helpfully posting here and on twitter). Our time will come.

That should say ‘delay in with in country registrations....’

Well, a slightly disappointing update on the HCV front with in country registrations and the clinical trial for WHO qualification triggering a few sells this morning with the predictably overdone dip in SP being the inevitable consequence with this extremely thinly traded share. However, there are in fact some extremely positive elements to the update:
1) Revenue growth up just over 25% in line with the projection in the half year report. This would have been exceeded if there hadn’t been a supplier issue which has delayed delivery of the £.3m order from the US DoD. Further double digit growth projected for 2019/20.
2) Cash back up to £5.2m, ahead of market expectations, which needs to be compared with the market cap of under £7m.
3) more rapid development than expected with the test for antibiotic related hearing loss in babies, which has potential for application across the NHS, as well as the rest of Europe and North America.
4) development of the TB test and plasma separation device progressing well.
5) most encouraging in the short term for me was the very bullish outlook for further orders from the US DoD. This could be a really beneficial relationship to put it mildly.
This morning’s dip represents a good buy/top up opportunity in my view although, sadly I took my top up yesterday, which turns out to have been a day early!
Don’t forget, there are some big institutions with a stake in this one, including the Pru. All imo and please DYOR

5% up on a few trades, and without news, shows how easily this will move with a bit of decent buying pressure. Hopefully, we will get a repeat of the jump we had in January on the back of that update, when we get the one we are expecting; and sustain it this time. I do think, actually, that this is already beginning to pull in a few who have been watching from the sidelines Troy, but I know what you mean. A 25% increase in revenues/income should help if the projection is delivered or, better still, beaten.

That’s good. Thanks for confirming those prices Troy.

Although the buy price was for a very small amount as I have bugger all left in my account so I can’t dummy buy for a decent amount.

Cheers Troy. I wouldn’t wait too long. Live buy/sell quotes now at 21.85/19.15 so any decent buying will take this up in my humble opinion. GL

Key Points:

1) First to market with a portable low cost molecular test for HCV (Hep C) with registrations for sales obtained in 11 countries as at the end of March and 30 targeted by end of June 2019.
2) The US DoD have already placed orders of US $900k and $500k for assays to be used for bio hazard detection. Further orders expected.
3) Assays for testing for TB and antibiotic related hearing loss in development.
4) Large institutional shareholders, including the Pru.
5) Cash at 30/6/19 was £3.5m with a tax credit of £1m and the second payment from the US DoD still to be banked. Market Cap only £7m.
6) Trading update expected any day and the half year report predicted a growth in revenues and other income of 25% without any further sales from additional uptake of the HCV assay or any further orders which may be received from the DoD beyond those already announced.
Please DYOR

Just bought another 6293 share, ready for the trading update expected shortly. Around a 25% growth in revenues nailed on as per last results imo, but please DYOR.

It always amazes me when people suggest that what is said here and in other public BBs has no effect, when it is self evident that a few thousand quids worth of trades can move the SP in thinly traded shares.

The volume isn’t there because it’s not being traded by short term traders at the moment, which could be said to be a good thing, apart from the tendency of AIM shares to drift without at least some decent volume. When there was lots of volume it was being traded, simple, and along with that came the inevitable volatility. Actually this is holding up quite well given where we are at imo. Of the 5 trades 4 were buys coming to about 10x the value of the sell, and we are down a touch, so a decent buy is being worked and will probably be printed tomorrow maybe putting us back up again thereafter if the balance of trades is repeated. It will move when it wants to. Just watch it fly when a strategic partner is announced. All imo and DYOR.

Ok, cheers Troy.

Excellent post Troy. It will be interesting to see what you find.

I wasn’t expressing an opinion one way or the other Earache. I was just summarising the article for Ant who said he couldn’t read it. That there was no immediate threat to the Govt was a conclusion of the writer of the article.
For what it’s worth, I share the view often expressed here that Cinovec is simply too big and too important for Europe, for Babis to block. He will no doubt find some way of wringing something more out of the project so that, when it does go ahead, he can present it as a victory, but there will still be plenty in it for EMH, all imo only, of course.

Article estimates a turnout of 120,000 but overall conclusion is that there is little threat to the Govt.

Article estimates a turnout of 120,000 but overall conclusion is that there is little threat to the Govt.

Site mobilisation should have started by now for the field test to commence at the beginning of July. They may or may not announce the commencement, but the test should only take three weeks and then we should get the results. I would expect interest to start building over the next few weeks in anticipation of those. We know this can move fast when it wants to. Just a little patience required imo. Pl DYOR.

Hi Troy If it’s any consolation, you are not alone. The last two years have wiped out all my gains of the previous eight, and some. I am about £5500 down on where I started, so, at the moment, I would have been better off keeping the cash under the bed! Lots of people have similar stories and, the fact is, it has been a decidedly bearish market in AIM during the last couple of years. However, I do think I can see a few green shoots of recovery emerging. GL