Member Info for Ctw2014

Was a buy from 3rd October, so just a quick trade (not me) for a respectable profit, but clearly not a lth.

Now top of the board. That will attract some interest!

Finally LSE has shown the change in SP this morning and we are showing 5th on their risers board, so that should help.

Correct GB. Nothing adverse in the programme about Hummingbird. Capital Group are out and their shares have been soaked up by other IIs who, judging by the thumping great buys today would appear to be still buying. It’s all good here imo.

Of course, a cynical view would be that the Directors may be content to see the SP drift so they can buy in cheaper later, but that would be a cynical view!

Nick

Unfortunately this has become so ultra illiquid that stupid drops on a few tiddly sells has become par for the course, I am afraid.
I did write to the company suggesting a modest share buy back scheme, certainly before any future fund raise, but they replied indicating that they had not considered it. I may pull my finger out and go to the next AGM and raise it there, along with the question of Director buys. I think, at the moment, the Company is focussed exclusively on product development and marketing and have shown scant interest in promoting the Company and its share price. However that certainly needs to change before any thought of a further fund raise, in my opinion (fortunately a fair way off presumably, with the cash they have).
On the upside, I don’t think there is any share overhang as, when we do get a flurry of buys, such as back in January, it moved up very quickly too (although the market makers always seem happier to move shares down).
At the moment, with liquidity very low, I don’t think they can even be bothered to try to make a market, as evidenced by the stupidly wide published spread which seems designed to deter trades. As you have said though, a bit of trading volume (no doubt triggered by news) and that will all change.

Couldn’t agree more.

Agree technik and good to see another poster on this board. It’s pretty quiet here but hopefully that will change as more people cotton on to the potential of GDR. Welcome.

Look guys, I don’t really want to take sides here but personally I think Earache has raised some valid concerns BUT the way I look at it, and yes I agree it’s simplistic but nonetheless valid imo, is that the pie here is big enough for CEZ and the Govt to take a big slice and yet leave EMH with enough for us all to be happy. That is the easiest route for them and will be rewarding enough, so whilst in an ideal world, I might have hoped for more, I am pretty sure we will all get a decent return on our investment. My guess is that even Earache will agree with that. No point in juvenile digs at each other imo. GLA.

That’s what we need here. Pure and simple.

The reference to material ramp up in revenues in the year to 2022 refers, I believe, to delivery of their strategy of having multiple assays (4 hopefully) in the market by then. That is not to say that we will not see a signficant pick up in revenues from the two we already have in the meantime. But I agree, if you are seeking instant gratification, perhaps you need to try another method! ;-)

Earache, there is no contradiction. The AR was issued at 30/09/18. As at that date, it is clearly stated that the board have no intention of drawing on the cln (presumably because they have subsequent to the cln announcement raised funds via a placing). The reference to the board’s belief that the loan ‘will’ be converted would have been better expressed as ‘would’ but it is clear that this was (at 30/9/19 and presumably remains) hypothetical (other than for the purposes of the going concern assessment) as confirmed by the concluding statement ‘should the loan be drawn down’.
The placing has obviously obviated the need for the loan for the time being. The due diligence is for the purpose of much greater investment than the loan which could see CEZ becoming our biggest shareholder/partner. I hope that’s clear.

Hi Troy,
Looks like I was typing my post when you were posting yours! I agree that the cash risk is, or should be, more than priced in given the very low SP/MC. I am not too worried about cash myself. The recent fund raise has put us in a fairly strong position and, given the expected news flow over the next year, I think that, if and when a further cash raise is needed, we will be in a much better position from a SP/dilution point of view. We could also get a boost from unexpected sources e.g new military customers for the bio hazard product; further grants; or even additional loans on favourable terms from the GHIF or BGF. Compared to most AIM companies, the cash risk here is fairly low imo.

Good to see a decent buy this morning following publication of the results. I had, to be honest, hoped to see a bit more in the way of post period end news, e.g more in country registrations but it looks like they have, probably sensibly, decided to focus initial efforts on key markets, rather than spreading their resources too thinly by continuing a scatter gun approach. This is a slow burner and patience continues to be required, but there are some significant positives:

1) Revenues up 21.6%
2) optimistic that WHO pre qualification for the HCV test will be obtained by the calendar year end (once obtained, this should boost sales)
3) approval for distribution of the HCV kit in India (their largest single market) expected in January and confident of demand in 2019/20
4) trials for test re anti biotic related hearing loss due to start in NHS hospitals from November with an expected duration of 6months, and product launch penned for the Autumn 2020. This looks like a biggy. Test time under 30 minutes. Big market and higher margin product.
5) US DoD still fully engaged and further orders expected in 2019/20. Component supply issues resolved.
6) Test re TB on track, with potential to deliver at a ‘market leading cost point in volume’.
7) Cash position strong at £3.9m on 26th Sept 2019.
8) Very supportive loan terms from the Global Health a Investment Fund and the Business Growth Fund.
9) All options and convertibles currently underwater so no immediate threat of dilution.
All in all, a strong hold for me. We have two products in the market which clearly work well and have significant revenue growth potential, and another two in the pipeline with even stronger prospects. Share price/market cap at an all time low despite the business being significantly de risked and on the cusp of significant revenue growth and, in due course, profitability. All IMHO and please DYOR.

I have said it before, but it is as clear as day, looking at the trades, that the price is being held back to allow the big boys to buy at prices acceptable to them. Its been like that for months. Once they have had their fill, then we will see some real upwards movement. All IMHO.

...now being paid.

@ 6.3999. Couldn’t resist.

Sid, that paragraph is a direct lift from EMH’s RNS of 16th July.

Well, hats off to you BUTD. We now have the RNS confirming that one of our big holders has been offloading. Oh well, at least the mystery has been solved and they are not just selling at any price.

‘they’ not ‘that’