Member Info for Ctw2014

...Seems a good time to.

Good to see you are still here Troy. It’s been a long time coming! GL

30p paid

27p paid

That should grab some attention!

But going up fast - 15.98p paid

£3m - see notes below

Bingo!

10) continued - reply from Walbrook:
"As far as the Genedrive team are concerned they understand that Novacyt don't have a 'test' but that they have CE marked a PCR primer set, which is different from an instrument based diagnostic test. There are also other primer sets available in the market. Validating primer sets in a closed platform like Genedrive would take time and money, and whilst they've applied to the MRC COVID 19 rapid response funding call there is no update on this and no certainty that this could be a viable way forward for them at this stage. It is certainly something that they are looking at though."
Note that last sentence. Whilst understandably non committal, it is pretty clear that they are thinking about the potential for the use of the Genedrive platform in the context of COVID -19.
Please do your own research. No advice given.

8) Pathogen Detection (US DoD) - Having recovered from a supplier issue, delayed orders with the DoD of $0.5m are due to be fulfilled in 2019/20. GDR have been working with the DoD to try to expand their internal customer base and to better gauge the level of future orders. As part of those discussions the DoD extended their framework contract by an additional $2m (although there is no guarantee they will spend that amount). Order intake is expected to increase and a potential de restriction of the product may allow for sale outside the US military. GDR's long term view of the Pathogen Detection Opportunity is very positive.
9) AIHL - This is a test for antibiotic related hearing loss in babies. It is in implementation trials in two NHS hospitals which are due to conclude in Summer 2020. Test results can be delivered in less than 30 mins. No commercial competitors. Potentially massive markets in the NHS and health care systems in the USA, Canada, Europe, Japan and indeed Globally. Plans are currently underway to scope and define the path to full global commercialisation. This could be a very big earner. In the UK alone there is the potential for 90,000 tests pa. At, say £60 a test that's £5.4 m (compare that to the market cap) and that's without the instrument readers themselves at about £4000 a pop!
9) TB - some development/manufacturing milestones to be completed but commercial revenues anticipated in 20/21.
10) Coronavirus????? - GDR are clear that they are not planning to expand into other testing areas and are focussed on the above, but it was suggested that perhaps a partnership with Novacyt might work, given that they have already developed and are marketing a COVID - 19 test (i.e. potentially use the Novacyt test on the Genedrive reader). This is the reply from there PR firm, Walbrook: (to be continued)

I thought it might be useful to update my notes on GDR for those who are not familiar with the company and might just be looking in and wanting to research further.
Genedrive (GDR) is a commercial stage biotech focused on point of care molecular diagnostics. Its Genedrive molecular platform offers low cost, simple to use, devices for highly sensitive and specific testing. The rapid analysis of samples aids real time decision making, whether in clinical, public health or bio threat applications. Key points:
1) GDR develops and commercialises a range of genetic tests which can be used on its portable point of care molecular diagnostic reader, Genedrive. The Company has two current areas of focus: Global Health and Developed Markets. In Global Health, its HCV (Hepatitis C) ID kit is on the market in targeted countries; and the TB test is in development with the support of grant funding and is expected to be on the market in the financial year 20/21. For Developed Markets its military pathogen detection range is on market and has been sold directly to the US Department of Defense ("DoD") while its Antibiotic Induced Hearing Loss test ("AIHL") is CE marked, has just entered implementation studies in two NHS hospitals and is expected to be on market in the early part of financial year 20/21.
2) GDR has a market Cap of just £3m, only 35m shares in issue and has major II investors on the register.
3) Cash in bank as at 31/12/19 £3.5m.
4) Debt held on favourable terms with loans from the Global Health Investment Fund and the Business Growth Fund not maturing until December 2023 and June 2025 respectively.
5) Product Development part funded by grants.
6)Hardman's estimate of gross margins on product sales 82%.
7) HCV - The HCV kit is registered for sale in 14 countries with India only just added, which is important, both because of the size of the Indian market and the fact that it is a funded market with a high number of private labs and payers (in contrast to the other countries the kit is registered in, where sales have been slower than anticipated as a result of lack of funding for HCV treatment and longer than expected registration timelines). The slower than anticipated uptake of the HCV kit caused a significant drop in the share price when the half year report was published in early February, but this is likely to be a temporary setback in my opinion and the much lower share price represents an opportunity to new investors who are attracted to the investment case. A key factor in the commercial attractiveness of the HCV test is World Health Organisation ("WHO") pre - qualification which is progressing but taking longer than WHO originally indicated. Lab studies were completed at the end of January and GDR expect to receive pre qualification in Q1/2 2020. GDR are also exploring a number of country specific opportunities for the HCV kit that would generate additional revenues on a project by project basis.
8) ( to be continued)

You would think so, but you have seen the response via Walbrook. I do not understand some of the technical distinctions made in their response but took it as a general positive that they are looking at the possibilities, hopefully a bit more urgently than the Walbrook response might suggest.

Very confident and upbeat interview - looks like virtually a done deal with CEZ by the end of the month.

But I take your point that the cost of validating could be picked up by Novacyt.

I put it to them on the basis that the Novacyt ‘test’ could apparently run on Genedrive, but, as you see, they say it needs to be ‘validated’ which would take time and money. This is the bit that I don’t really understand as my scientific knowledge doesn’t really stretch that far.!

So, this is what I have had back from Walbrook:-
“As far as the Genedrive team are concerned they understand that Novacyt don’t have a ‘test’ but that they have CE marked a PCR primer set, which is different from an instrument based diagnostic test. There are also other primer sets available in the market. Validating primer sets in a closed platform like Genedrive would take time and money, and whilst they’ve applied to the MRC COVID-19 rapid response funding call there is no update on this and no certainty that this could be a viable way forward for them at this stage. It is certainly something they are looking at though. ‘

Not sure I fully understand all of this, but at least it’s on their radar.

I have now received a reply from Walbrook which says that Genedrive are focussed on the commercial roll out of the HCV kit, the military pathogen detection range and developing the TB and AIHL tests, and have no plans to fund expansion into other testing areas. That has to be the right strategy in principle pending decent revenues from those projects but, if a partnership with the Novact test is feasible that would obviously not require much cash and could, in theory, generate significant sales of hardware for minimal outlay. I have, therefore asked Walbrook to pass the suggestion on to see what Genedrive make of it.

FFS Awax, please scroll down and see my post on Tuesday at 23.59! Cheers.

Yes, good to see a bit more confidence in the trades.

At least they are performance related.