Member Info for Ctw2014

Not too impressed about 9p options being granted when the SP is on its backside.

So, for what it’s worth, here’s my take on why we have seen an accelerated drift downwards just lately, despite due diligence completion being imminent, and why I think the sellers are making a mistake:

1. General market conditions, especially in AIM, are pretty poor and I believe a lot of money has been coming out of AIM and heading for safe havens, exacerbated by the Corinavirus scare and other macro factors. Most of the ready money left in AIM seems to be in the hands of short term traders, chasing the latest hot stock, rather than being invested in longer term plays like EMH.

2. Sheer boredom/nerves. It’s been a while and people get twitchy if things take longer than they expect. Keith did say ‘early in the New Year’ .

3 Most particularly, I think some are worried that the deal won’t complete by the end of the month, possibly because they think that CEZ will try to renegotiate in the light of the drop in EMH’s share price. This is why I don’t think that will happen and why I think our SP is irrelevant. First, there have been a good few Czech news reports covering Ministerial statements which have referred to the end of March deadline and given me at least the clear impression that they want to get the deal done. CEZ have a good deal that makes the Govt look good and they won’t want to mess that up. They can’t afford to muck about and cause substantial delay thereby potentially missing the EV/battery boom in Europe. Second, my understanding of the deal is that it is not in any way geared to the SP but is a fixed sum of money for a 51% stake in Geomet (effectively the project) NOT EMH. The reference to a 21.8p share price in the RNS simply to provide a comparison between the market cap at that price and the sum of money we will receive, that’s all. What the EMH share price is doesn’t really matter to CEZ. People need to remember that Keith’s background is in finance and funding mining projects. Do the sellers really think he would be stupid enough to structure a deal which is going to unravel as a result of short term fluctuations in EMH’s SP? I certainly don’t.

All just my opinion. Not advice. Good luck. News could drop any day.

Thanks - I note that NCYT has their Genesig instruments but they seem to be sold for research purposes only and are not licensed for diagnostic procedures, according to their website.

Errrr, there is a bit of a bug going around ??

What’s your understanding of the nature of NCYT’s test?

Interesting, thanks. Let’s see what unfolds.

I used to have a contact at Genedrive on the science side who was great at replying to queries, but she seems to have moved on and, since Walbrook were appointed, enquiries seem to be referred to them and they haven’t responded this time, so far at least. It could be that they are working on something and can’t respond but, more likely just bad communications, which is a bit rich for a PR company.

To be honest, I am not convinced that the Genedrive kit is particularly relevant to this virus anyway as (as I understand it) it is basically a flu type virus that usually just runs its course and the body deals with it. Hence the approach of the Health Authorities appears to be basically isolation until the risk of passing on the disease has passed and hospitalisation for the treatment of life threatening complications. NCYT seems to have come up with a test so that may be that.

According to what I was told a while back, in the context of HCV, whilst there are other tests out there, these are just screening tests and, before treatment is prescribed (which I believe is expensive) a positive screening test needs to be confirmed by a molecular test, which is where Genedrive comes in, because it’s kit is portable/relatively inexpensive point of care kit, whereas a molecular test for HCV would normally have to be carried out in a lab on much more bulky/expensive kit. Whilst I don’t know the specifics of the NCVT test for Coronavirus (and I note they have lots of different tests) I am not sure that such a molecular test is necessary in the case of Coronavirus. None of this is definitive or advice, so anyone reading it should obviously do there own research.

Spot on imo GLR.

I wrote to the company a while ago asking if they planned any initiatives regarding the Coronavirus but haven’t had a reply which, I suppose is unsurprising because, if they were, it would surely be price sensitive.

Typically for AIM, the market reaction to the delays in gaining traction for sales of the HCV kit was pretty appalling obviously, but there were two very big positives that the market mostly overlooked imo:
1) The reference to a GLOBAL commercialisation of the AIHL test, which could be a huge revenue generator; and
2) We now have India as a market for the HCV test which is both massive and funded for HCV treatment.
With regard to AIHL, even just the roll out in the NHS will be pretty big. 90,000 tests pa at say £60 a test represents £5.4million in revenues, and that’s without the machines themselves at about £4000 a pop!
I am not overjoyed to see the present value of my investment here sitting at a fraction of the value of my original investment but I do feel that a rapid turnaround is very much on the cards. The delayed $500k DoD order will top up the cash position in the short term and a decent fresh order would be great.
Cash preservation over the next twelve months or so is key in my mind. Focus on India/HCV, AIHL, and US DoD and go slow on R&D until the revenues start coming in. All imo and DYOR etc.

It’s not a short position and they will clearly want the price to go up like any other shareholder. I have also seen them as a significant shareholder elsewhere although I can’t remember where. I suspect that when M&G wanted out following the trading update (quite possibly because the market cap fell below some minimum size/risk rule for them) It was just too good an opportunity for Spreadex to miss.

They are a private company primarily engaged in providing spread betting and sports betting facilities. I assume that they can choose to invest surplus funds and this is such, but I really don’t know to be honest. Not sure If they can buy for clients. I would rather have M&G On the register, but at least by selling to Spreadex they have exited without creating a big overhang as an earlier post suggested.

So now we know who took M&G’s shares.

3rd Feb RNS: ‘the board will continue to evaluate the best ways to return value to shareholders’. Note ‘ways’ (plural). In an earlier video interview Dan specifically mentioned buying back shares as a possible approach to a low SP.

There was a big hint re divi or buy back (who knows maybe both) in the last update, so I am pretty sure something will happen along those lines fairly soon. Agree that even the announcement of a modest buy back programme will work wonders at very little cost.

I am sure they are and they will, in my view, be keen to avoid a placing at these levels, which ought to be possible given their now EBITA positive and have decent relationships with the banks.

I have always found that Keith responds to emails, and regularly does video interviews when he actually has something to say.

Lawrence - I completely agree with your assessment of both Keith and the likely outcome here. Feeling very positive despite the somewhat suppressed share price which, I believe, will bounce up hard on sign off of the deal with CEZ.

Cancel last post. Misread a full stop as a comma! Just a run of the mill trade shown to multiple decimal points! Getting old.

£1.7m trade just printed, almost certainly a buy imo, offsetting the bulk of M&G’s sell. TR1 to come.