Member Info for Ctw2014

Just topped up with a few more (just under £1k) pre AGM.

Correction 43.71p

Just took another £2k worth at 43.77p as a little pre AGM top up.

I suspect that, with the date of the publication hearing now fixed, we can expect an RNS confirming this, along with the promised announcement on the timeline for the limited cross border consultation.

Not that I have heard.

Yep

Edit: UT trade.

That small trade showing blue on the screen is pure manipulation to give the impression the buy price dropped at close to 18.3p. Good luck trying to buy at that price on Monday morning. The real position is the people were paying the full ask of 19p right up till the close. Don’t be fooled by their antics!

I was thinking the same thing

Gsdsitsgs - with regard to the EBRD, I agree that if it was a normal private investor, it would indeed be illogical to sell shares at a loss in order to lend. However, it is not. It is an international public body and its role is to is to provide seed finance at the early high risk stage of projects seen to be of public benefit. It is not there simply to maximise profit.

Lending public money while it is still significantly invested in a company as a shareholder would be seen as using public funds to prop up its own investment.

This is why it often sells out as a precursor to lending even if it takes a financial hit in the process (as it is).

Skelly - last week was a 4 day week because of the Bank Holiday and the total number of shares traded on those 4 days was 1, 119, 413 (buys and sells).

And being a bit of a cynic, wouldn’t it be convenient for the board if that happened after the votes had been cast for the performance rights (so 32p didn’t look too easy) but just in time to brag about it at the AGM! Lol

Skelly

We know that the EBRD is reducing or (more likely) exiting as a shareholder (possibly to step in as a lender) but what is clear is that they are not “dumping millions of shares” on any day or days. If they did that they would crash the share price and undermine the very purpose of investing in the first place. It’s currently a managed disposal of some of their holding being matched by buyers (some decent buys visible today).

If they sold at the current sort of rate I reckon it would take about 5 months to clear but much more likely in my view is that there will be a negotiated sell of the whole lot to one or more institutional buyers which would take the lid off the current dampening effect of their selling and do wonders for the share price. I should have added that to my “possible sequence of events” thread below.

The cash value of trades (mostly buys) is already around 70% of the daily average.

True spread 16.16 to sell 17.00 to buy

Hi Lusack. Just to clarify. 200% of the current sp (ie a 100% increase) is merely the relatively low bar for the vesting of the performance shares. The board will undoubtedly want to hold those shares for the bigger gains down the line. It is nothing to do with the calculation of the market price for a buy out.

Continued from previous post.

So, we know, for example, that talks have taken place at a high level between CEZ and POSCO on possible cooperation in relation to mining and processing at Cinovec. If a deal is to be done between these two giants two things are likely:

1) CEZ would probably like 100% of the shares in Geomet to play with, rather than just its 51%, so it can negotiate away a chunk without giving up control;and

2) it won’t want a junior explorer like EMH in the way. Already EMH has shown it can obstruct CEZ’s plans if it needs to (see above) so how can it clear the decks for a deal? Answer, initiate the buy out mechanism in the shareholders agreement. It will have to pay fair value but that would likely be a price worth paying for it to have greater freedom of maneuver under a scenario where it was 100% owner of Geomet.

How does this tie in with the AGM and the performance rights?

The EMH board can see the writing on the wall. They want to lock in their retirement bonus in shares now to maximise the value of those shares later on. Hence the unusual “flat rate” trigger for all three tranches of 200% of the sp over the preceding period. They know they won’t be around for the latter stages so they create a mechanism to deliver their shares as soon as possible, eg after an offtake announced following EIA approval. Just my thoughts and not advice. Scroll back to my 12.56 post for context if interested.GLA.

At 12.56 today (uk time) I posted a theory about a sequence of events which seemed quite plausible to me. One part of that sequence involved CEZ initiating a buy out of EMH’s interest at market value (value of EMH’s share of the asset; nothing to do with the present rather miserable share price).

I would just like to give some colour as to why I think that is quite likely soon and how it ties into the rather revealing nature of the performance rights being proposed at the AGM.

As we all know, CEZ is the majority 51% share holder in Geomet with EMH holding the other 49%. Superficially, that appears to give CEZ the whip hand but (and some posters have historically missed this) there is a highly significant shareholders agreement which was entered into between CEZ and EMH when CEZ came on board in 2020. This has several reserved matters that require agreement between the partners and dispute resolution mechanisms in the event of disagreement. Funding is one such reserved matter. The agreement also specifies that CEZ can acquire EMH’s interest at market value (see above - we are talking about a valuation based on NPV, as per DFS, discounted for risk but allowing for awarded grants and the strategic nature of the asset: even 49% of 30% of NpV is roughly a share price of 56p).

Hitherto, EMH has lauded CEZ as a fantastic partner and everything has been rosey in the garden.

Then Geomet published its accounts for year ended 31/03/26. In those accounts there was a footnote to the effect that Geomet had, on 28th January initiated steps relating to further funding and intended to raise further money from shareholders. It was discussed here.

Then bingo, in April, EMH rushed out an RNS to squash the idea, reminding Geomet and the market that their consent was required and stating that no valid cash call had been made.

Then EMH summoned an AGM for 29th May, requesting approval for 3.6 m performance shares, at first blush vesting at three different stages in the development of the project, until you look at the share price trigger for all three stages which is 200% of the current share price for the requisite period, for all three tranches. Why not a rising threshold of progressively higher thresholds, which would be more typical of a genuine incentive mechanism for achieving all three stages (see below)?

So, suddenly, just as it is getting interesting with the EIA due, a public fracture in the relationship emerges. Geomet needs cash. A cash call would be easy for CEZ to meet but a disaster for EMH at the current share price and just when we are arguably on the cusp of a re rate. So EMH uses the shareholder agreement to trump Geomet’s move and to protect its interests.

Big boy CEZ is reminded that it can’t easily bully its junior partner or collapse its share price by demanding cash it is unwilling to raise at this juncture.

So what is likely to happen? (To be continued).

Got to disagree there Stringer. The public both in the Czech Republic and now also in Germany must be allowed their say now that the EIA is out. Their views must be taken into account. But they most definitely don’t have the final say. That is reserved to the Czech Government who have a massive stake in the outcome. Even the German govt is mandated to cooperate under CMRA principles and have an incentive not to be obstructive, bearing in mind they have their own Zinnwald project on the other side of the border tapping into the same ore mountains (there is no incentive at all for German govt to instigate a Czech/German spat over this). At most the German consultation may lead to additional mitigation measures regarding the protection of common water supplies etc and/or mining practice. All just my opinion. The public speak/ Government must listen and consider/ Government decides, bearing in mind this is a strategic project, the importance of which has lately been brought into sharp focus by international events/conflicts.

How about this as a theory of what might unfold:

1) EIA sorted by 30/06/26 or soon after (with a JTF extension if needed)

2) Soon after, an offtake is announced for 25% plus of output that triggers tranche A of the performance shares.

3) The SP jumps on the news but not long enough or high enough to trigger tranches B and C on the basis of share price;

4) CEZ begins takeover process as per 2020 shareholder agreement. RNS makes clear that valuation will, as per 2020 shareholder agreement, be based on a discounted NPV valuation as per DFS, strategic status, grants etc and EMH’s 49% share (nothing to do with current share price). Even at a paltry 30% NPV this equates to about 56p share price.

5) Share price jumps again on this news and stays high long enough to trigger tranches B & C performance shares. Coughlan and Pavlik get their “Cinovec retirement bonuses”

6) CEZ announce a partnership deal with POSCO giving say 30% of their 100% Geomet shares in exchange for POSCO processing capability.

All entirely speculation of course and most definitely not advice!