George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Well, frustrating or no, I decided to top up this morning at what, hopefully, will turn out to be a bargain price. We will see. For the last couple of years at least, as Starcom, the board put out a trading update a couple of months after publishing the interims (published about a month later this year) so, if past form is anything to go by, we could get an update this month and, if that is positive, we might well get a bit of a bounce from here. Fingers crossed.
Quite apart from the other benefits obvious from this RNS, the higher quality product resulting from the simplified process vindicates Keith’s decision not to rush concluding offtakes. He has publicly stated that it is in our interests not to do so because terms are improving as time goes on, but he has obviously had to keep quiet about this new process until now. Clearly, with a better product, he can negotiate even better terms for offtakes. Well done Keith!
I should add that the phrase used was ‘start to be seen’ in H2. So, I am expecting to see something material in terms of revenue growth in H2, but not fireworks. We have been told in various RNSs that major sales will be ramping up from 2023/2024.
Foxhill - what you say about the legacy business is factual, fairly accurate and fair.
What you say about the new business is speculative, probably inaccurate, and may or may not be fair, depending on what revenues are actually being delivered in H2 (now) which nobody outside the company knows.
The interims made it clear that first sales under the new contracts were beginning to be seen and that the impact of the new strategy and growth in revenues would not be seen until H2 which, of course, has not been reported on, so it remains to be seen how significant the impact of new sales will be in H2.
However, the interims also state that $55 m in potential sales under the signed LATAM contracts are ‘moving into the execution stage’. That and other very bullish forward looking statements from a notoriously conservative board certainly point to a very rosy future indeed and whether I am simply reading things through rose tinted specs only time will tell. I think I will keep my shares though.
I have previously been a supporter of GB and Deepverge but am absolutely disgusted, like so many others, at how this has been so badly financially mismanaged, and the consequent destruction of shareholder value.
The markets are generally pants at the moment and people have little faith in anything, but the outlook in the interims was extremely positive, and that’s coming from a BoD that is notoriously cautious. A new contract could literally drop at any moment and regardless it’s pretty clear that H2 will be better than H1.
Masarap - you are quoting from the RNS about the Argentinian contract, whereas I suspect Hunky was talking about the first LATAM contract announcement on 17/12 for which the first commercial order has already been confirmed.
For those looking in, I would recommend reviewing ALL RNSs from and including the one on 17/12/21.
Absolutely! There was nothing in todays RNS that couldn’t have been said yesterday. Tells you all you need to know. “Under new management “ and the menu is looking much tastier.
Catbert - Good post and I agree that the recent decline in sp is probably just traders and fed up PIs selling because they did not get news which they (erroneously in my view) expected immediately after the end of September. Quite why they expected this is beyond me. We have been told that upon conclusion of phase 1 of the review, the board will consider its corporate direction for the benefit of shareholders (or words to that effect). Did people somehow think that the evaluation of expressions of interest would be a 5 minute job? There are multiple options to consider. It will no doubt take some time. Expecting an announcement already was/is unrealistic in my view. As you say, the only circumstance in which an immediate announcement might have been made is if phase 1 resulted in no EOIs and I share your view that this is not what has happened.
And a very positive and upbeat presentation it was too. Very excited to be invested and can see a pretty rapid turnaround in SP performance when the next lot of numbers come out, or earlier on further contract or regulatory news of course. Not advice and DYOR etc.
Mattja, you do realise it’s the 30th September tomorrow, right?
I wasn’t there but did post a question referencing the drop in SP and lack of profit (despite record revenues) and pointing out that the two are connected and the poor sp performance cannot wholly be blamed on poor market conditions. My question was when is the company planning to start generating a profit/free cash flow? This was glossed over in a general response re questions relating to share price and the old chestnut of following the strategic plan (which was set back for two years because of the pandemic). It will be interesting to see if they are more specific in the written responses to questions, although I am not holding my breath.
We have been in a falling trend for about a year, in line with many other companies, given the poor macro geopolitical and economic conditions and a very “risk off” market. The most recent drop was triggered by the 5th August RNS warning that revenue growth and EBITA might be a tad lower than “market expectations”. An irrational but typical response from a nervy risk off bear market. Irrational because this company’s growth trajectory remains stellar on all fronts. Some might see that as a buying opportunity. GLA