Member Info for CSDI1962

Well I am not for selling up.
It is at a 5 year low.
Remember we want to buy low and sell high if possible.
It always looks darkest at the bottom of the well.
Are we at the bottom ? - who knows.
But I do know it is a better buy at 1255 than it was at 1615 in July when I started buying.
No point in think about tomorrow as recent view syndrome clouds your thinking.
If you are a day trader then yes, sell if you want.
But if you are a long term investor - will the SP be higher in 1 yr, 2yr or 3 yrs ?
I don't honestly know, but GSKs history tells me it normally recovers.
I have been down to £10 in 2008-09 and did not sell after buyung at 1350 in 2007.
I waited until SP got to around £13 and then sold at a profit thanks to accumulated dividends with some using the drip scheme.
This is just my experience of GSK and I am pretty down with it atm, but optimistic that long term it should prove ok.
whatever anyone says no one knows the future.
It is about risk and reward with no guarantees.
for me the reward from here is greater than the risk, so happy to bide my time even if it falls more in the short term, which always seems more likely when its trending down. You just never know when it turns the corner and if you are not in it.... you can't get it back.
Cheers & GLA - CSDI

FP
I use investing.com and put dates in the historical data box

https://uk.investing.com/equities/glaxosmithkline

Well said Dan. I don't like getting my hands dirty. In fact I struggle to keep my hands clean with a biro these days.
Would you believe VOD was my best performer today ? Gives you an idea how bad things are for my p/f.
Patient will need more patience after today - not enough on the VOD swingometer I believe - just be careful you don't break the swing by being overweighted
And Dan, what've you been doing again .. you must stop encouraging that pessimistic VOD robot.
If I have to tell you one more time, I will really upset you and buy some more VOD shares ..... be warned
Have a good evening as I am back to my main hobby tonight .... losing at chess
Cheers - CSDI

Yes perfect day for the crooks in the city
If you've got someone else's £1m to play with.
Would have had field day today - down to 116 from 122 (5%) - up to 119.75 (3%) - back down to 116 (another 3%) and sprint to 120 for another 3%+. How to make 140K in a day, without stamp duty getting in way !!
Meanwhile for the average PI - it's simply too expensive to sell-buy-sell-buy - so we are left to hold and watch.
Hey Ho ... It's only money ..

I wish to apply for the star "Anorak" prize, as my share dealing ability to put it mildly is .... C R A P

The SP was much higher than now 20 years ago - so not sure about that FP

Hi Toff.
Just looked at alst two divis:

13/8/20 was 19p and 12/11/20 was same

In w/c 10/8/20 SP went 1553 - 1576 - 1611 -1569 - 1535
w/c 17/8/20 was 1555 - 1539 - 1550 - 1525 - 1515 and end of month was 1472.

so on that one selling on Wed 12/8 near 1611 would have been best

for the nov divi

Nov 5 = 1404, nov 6 = 1399, Nov 9 =1428 10th = 1467 ; 11th = 1463 ; 12th = 1446 13th = 1447
w/c 16th Nov was 1442 - 1402 - 1374 - 1395 - 1393 and end of month was 1383

So again build up to day before was approx 60p over 5 days, held on ex div day with 17p loss vs 19 p divi and then fell badly week after, but as I recall all FTSE went into reverse towards end of Nov, before climbing early/mid Dec.

GSK has been targetted by CS since then, culminating in recent falls after Business Review/update with Yr end results.

As GSK is my biggest part of SIPP, I would plan to sell at least half my holding a day or two before ex div, with view to buying back as part of LTH. As mentioned elsewhere I have been in and out of GSK since 2007 and seen SP fall to £10 in financial crash before recovering (eventually).

My view, FWIW, is this offers value on a long term hold basis.
I would be desappointed if it does not get back to at least £15, and I have target of £16-17 in mind.

Short term it may well go down as likely to make new lows below current 1256.
As you predict £12 is easily possible and probably more likely than my £16/£17 target in the short term.

It is hard to fathom why GSK is targetted so much more than AZN, when looking at P/E ratios and dividend yields etc.
Dame Emma did not help with EOY presentation by not countering with the value creation JVs etc.
Maybe she is happy to keep picking up shares on the cheap with the cozy executive pay plan that directors benefit from but PIs suffer for !

Yepp we know.
If you follow Toff Appleton's posts - he calls it the Permabear 100

Hi Prussell.
I am in similar position but much smaller holding. I have recently halved my holding, selling one batch at 1430 and one at 1410 on 6th Jan and 19th Jan. These two batches were sold at a profit, and after a swift foray into BP with the latest batch decided to turn turtle and sell BP taking a 16% loss after just 2 weeks.
I am thinking to sell again if we get above £14, with half of what I have left. I am likely to keep the last bit which I bought at £27 in July 2018.
In your position I would be tempted to break the holding down into batches of say £5K, which gives 8 batches.
I would set a target to sell one batch at a time with a view to buying back in at a lower level. It may work around dividend dates, as drops tend to be more than dividend amount.
My biggest holdings are GSK and IMB. GSK I have a target of £16-£17 to sell.
IMB I have 5 batches, and will probably sell 1 or 2 batches next week around ex div date. Last quarter had 48p divi but price dropped 130p over 3 days, so was able to buy back in with a batch and then sell again after recovering over £1.
My most recent sale of RDSB was used to buy PFC - oil services which is currently in profit by approx 7%.
PFC is a risky buy with SFO risk, but potential to rise quicker and further than RDSB imo.
Question is - can you find another share that has more upside potential than RDSB from its current level.
If you can, then consider swapping some or all of RDSB.
If not, stick with your RDSB holding.
A lot of PIS are scared to accept a loss on any share.
I always ask myself a couple of questions:
1. with existing holdings; would I buy them today at current SP ? (If yes, keep hold and if No, then why keep hold ?
2. Is there a better investment I can make with the proceeds if I sold at current SP.
At the end of the day, only you can make the decision - unfortunately it is a risk/reward business we are in and no one forces us to buy the shares we choose. We have to live with the consequences (good and bad) and make our decisions accordingly.

Trust this helps/gives you something to think about.
Of course, I am not qualified to give advice, and just offering some opinion/options.

Be warned I am not called CSDI for nothing - Crap share Dealing Ideas (presumably a similar age)

Cheers & Good luck - CSDI

Hi Patient.
I guess those that know anything about investing choose not to buy VOD.
It's just us dummies that are stuck with these shares.
you only need to see the resident posts of "Moan-a-lot" to scare everyone off.
Then you are left with us resident jokers who are eqivalent to Fawlty Tower's Manuel
Que Que - I know nothing Mr Basil .....

Cheers - CSDI

Interestingly I have just sold out of BP and now have lower amount invested in RDSB.
RDSB and IMB both go ex div on Feb 18th, so expect some volatility in SPs before and after.
If you want to have a chuckle my complete p/f can be seen on the "General Chat" threads.
If you want to be successful, it is normally recommended to do the opposite of anything I am doing LOL.

Cheers & Good luck

CSDI = Crap Share Dealing Ideas
CSDI = Contrarian Share Decision Indicator
CSDI = Cunning Share Dividend Investor (in my dreams)

Because Emma reported there is a negative impact on profit from Covid

Because Emma flagged a cut in the 2022 divi but could not quantify

Because the company wants to spend a few hundred million on doing the splits

Because GSK will not make any profit from developing any Covid vaccines

Because normal lines of income are slower and lower than normal due to Covid

Because Emma would not say anything about our recent JVs creating value.

Because the divi cut announcement came as a shock rather than being constructively managed.

does that help explain anything.

Meanwhile the directors keep picking up free shares thanks to their executive plans at marvellous knock down prices, while the PIs hang on painfully waiting for a SP recovery.

Its only 12 months ago the SP was £18, and in a once in a lifetime opportunity to make profits in a health crisis, the board lets everything slide.

Would you believe I am normally so positive on GSK, having been an investor/trader since 2007.
No doubt it is a matter of having more patience than normal.
I have 23% or so of my SIPP invested in GSK, at an average price of 1453p, and did have a target of £16-£17 in mind. Assuming I hold for at least another 12 months, picking up a further 80p in divis, the lower end of my target should be achievable, i.e approx 25% increase from here. I am not expecting a return to £18.
As TMU says normally a good trading range of buy <£15 and sell >£16.

Cheers & GLA - CSDI

Patient - it's like having a birthday everyday with VOD 4 U. Are you instructing the MMs personally ?

I think the referee should intervene and stop the contest. yekiM has to be the winner.

Robina, why buy X after -35% instead of Y after + 500% over 5 years ?

1. Beacuse past performance is no gauarantee of future performance
2. Every dog has it's day (maybe VOD is the exception)
3. Every high flyer falls back to earth with gravity.

I can say this is all true with my experience having bought IMB @ £29, RDSB @ £27, VOD @ £2,
In 2007 I bought LLOY @ 550p, RBS @ 630 etc etc
All looked good at the time and all heavily recommended.

Who knows what the future holds ?

Hi Poker

Majority of those costs are accounting write-offs and not cash outlay.
The reduced divi (66% reduction) is a real saving in cash outlays.
No problem in cutting divi if they strengthen the business, but if it just ends up in the directors pockets as "performance rewards or remuneration" then we will have a bandwagon of irate share holders.
It is a massive business to steer in a new (greener) direction and I just hope investments go in the correct areas and spare funds are used to pay down debts. I cannot understand why big business think it is good to carry debt when it is the No.1 killer of ALL companies. The current low interest environment gives them a false security. What happens if interest rates go back to 5% or so - like they were just before the Financial Crash ?
My big oil weighting has been cut in my little SIPP to approx 7% from 13% since end of 2020. If I don't like where the business is heading I will take my losses, and find a better share/sector to invest in.
Fingers crossed Van Beurden knows what he is doing and I can stay invested.
Cheers - CSDI

Hi corbs
I have been holding IMB since Jan 2018 when I paid £29 and the divi was approx 181p p.a = 6.2%
The SP has dropped by approx 50% since then and the divi cut to 137p (from 206p LY).
As income seeker myself I will continue to hold IMB for the forseeable, having bought several more batches to average my price down, and sold some around the previous divi date.
Toff appleton alerted us all to the shenenigans around the divi and the last qtr was 48p like this one coming at 48.01p.
The ex div date was 26th November and here are the closing prices leading up to and then after
Nov 24th = 1506; 25th = 1491; 26th = 1420; 27th = 1413; 30th = 1361
Dec 1st = 1378; 2nd = 1420 3rd = 1449; 4th = 1467; 11th = 1577; 24th = 1544
So you can see there was a huge drop after 26th down to 1361.
I sold one batch on 24th Nov @ 1493 and bought back on Dec 1st at 1378, which worked out beffer than the batches I held throughout.
Equally if you had bought a day or two before ex div at 1491-1506, you would have got the 48p divi and been in profit from Dec 7th onwards until the recent drop caused by the 5 yr Business Review !
All this has to be considered in contxt with the general market which did seem to have a big drop off in last week of November before quickly climbing in early December.
As I have 5 batches at the moment, my plan will be to sell one that I am in profit with just before ex div and hope to buy it back cheaper taking into account dealing costs and stamp duty. I will hold at least 3 of the batches through the div and possibly sell a 2nd batch to help keep dealing costs down (min £15 to buy and sell for me).
This sector is very much out of fashion, and is now little or no growth, so cannot expect the heady days of £40+ to return.
I will retain some as a long term divi income and try to trade others to recover the losses from my first two batches at £29 and £21.
Apologies to others if this is a repeat of previous messages, but this one is aimed at a potential noew buyer.
Good luck and be careful.
Oh and just in case you do not know me - I am called CSDI with good reason - Crap Share Dealing Ideas

And the wait goes on .... Embark need a bomb up their backside to get this mess sorted.
And still not got another divi that was due 31st January.
Complaint has been made
Compensation has been requested ..
Threatened to close account unless resolved to my satisfaction.
Would be a considerable pain to move SIPP account as means funds would not be accessable for weeks while a transfer took place.
Don't want to shoot myself in foot - or do I ? LOL
Cheers or should that Moans - CSDI

Patient - Welcome to the vodafone party always giving buyers a chance
Enjoy your top ups and add-ons

Now Daniel - I thought we had an agreement not to repsond to a certain timewaster. I'm disappointed in you and may have to cast another vote in the Moaning Competition with your name on it !! (As Chris Sutton would say ... you are better than that)

Hi Poker
I hope to god this Strategy Update is better than two I've heard recently from GSK and IMB - both sent the shares down a long way. I am still holding RDSB shares I bought in 2018 at £27. At least my average is now down to 1977 - a vintage year for 'Ginny Wade LOL. Let's hope the market is impressed as we move towards a greener future, but still many years to go with the old black stuff. Fingers crossed we have a positive update and some northwards direction on the SP. The SP is still reeling from the brutal divi cut and we need to know where that saved money is going to be spent.
Cheers & GLA - CSDI