Member Info for CSDI1962

TLG
How's the easy money trade today ?
Who pressed the wrong button

Will be anounced with year end results. Expected to be 3c, amking total of 9USc for year.
With R/E of approx GBPUSD 1.4, gives 6.4p and current yield ~5.8%

The dividend max timetable was for announcment today, but think this is wrong.

Looks like the lyrics to Cher's song if you ask me - If I could turn back time LOL

Blimey - that's not investing. That would hardly cover costs of buying and selling c/w stamp duty in my SIPP.
Would be fine if short-term trading. Or using leverage.
I bought at 865p on 31st December and was aiming for 10% over the year.
More likely to lose 10% than gain, the way it is heading atm
Cheers & GLA

gosh and I thought Rebess was quoting something from the bible.

I am sorry for the falling SP in CEY and must take blame myself. It has done nothing but drop since I bought my 2nd batch on 7th January @ 133p, on the (wrong) assumption the SP was climbing after my first purchase on 9th December @ 125p.
I have a horrible feeling of deja-vu with this pattern, closely following my first ever foray into CEY some 10 years ago.

The trend with gold is not promising atm, coupled with our West Wall worries.
could do with some postive news with results on 11th March.
fingers crossed & GLA

Robina
I am pleading with you to sell !
You can then be a fully fledged member of the CSDI Club, when the SP rises

Hi Manfor
While I woud like to agree with you as IMB is a major part of my SIPP, there is a big issue for IMB that the market does not like.
It simply has no growth in the pipeline and the market hates this type of buisness share.
While I think the Bitcoin and Tesla price are massively overhyped, there are many UK shares that trade on P/Es several times the size of IMB simply becuase the market believes they have more growth potential - which is hard to argue with.
The question for me is, what value does the market put on a mature business that is no/slow growth.
I believe IMB is undervalued but I thought the same 3 years ago when I bought it at £29.
The market does its own thing and seems to have no recognition of the profits and divis that IMB generates.
We need something to change sentiment as we are currently in 4 year down trend, and with market dynamics this means it is more likely to carry on that way.
I watched an old Peter Lynch presentation on Friday night and he just underlined 3 or 4 things.
1. The market goes up and goes down, but when going down does it much quicker.
2. Just becuase a share SP is low, does not mean it cannot go lower and vice versa
3. Do not bother with charts - they are meaningless when it comes to the future (just great to tell you what history says)
4. Dont spread your investments too much - as he calls is di-WORSIFICATION. Nothing wronging with putting all your eggs in one basket if you pick the winner
5. The market can be irrational much much longer than anyone (PI) can stomach.

So we need a catalyst to change the direction/trend of IMB - what will it be.
The latest Management Plan for Modernisation does not fill me with confidence - huge advertising on NGP - when the old business way of selling fags is much more profitable even if undesirable for society.
As the smallest tobacco player in the industry, what chance a predator attacks while SP is at 15+ year lows

GLA - we need it

DeathFF
Why suggest PHNX with 6.6% yield vs NG @ 5.8%
If you want just a divi why not IMB @ 9.8% or BATS @ 8.4%
Divis on their own can be a trap as I know to my cost.
What is your reason for suggesting PHNX ?

Robina
TP of £30 may well be mad.
But I am struggling to understand your position, after looking thru your recent posts :
In one post SP ~ 1450- I think of selling but would lose 50% here,
On 3/2 @ 1463 - I have added here
On 10/2 @ 1484 - was going to add more a day or so back but stupidly held off.
Todays post - If IMB worth £19, why is it not trading at £19. I might top up around £13 to average down.

We all try to buy shares we hope are undervalued. IMB may be worth £19, but the current price is just what the market offers today. I have bought this week as beleive it is "worth more" than current SP. If I thought it was only wrth £13, I would be selling all and expecting to buy back much lower than £13. Tesla is worth not a lot, but its price is about $800. Bitcoin to me is worthless but has price of >$50000. I would say most stocks are worth more or less than their SP and that is why we have buyers and sellers. If the SP was true reflection of value, no one would buy it.

I think you are prime candidate to join the CSDI club - as you have that Midas reverse effect on shares LOL
PS. Can you do us a favour then and sell your IMB shares, so we can guarantee a price rise ?

Cheers - CSDI

Excellent post Toff - spot on !!
GSK's fall to new lows (52 weeks and 5 years) continue. Never recovered its divis since the downfall gained momentum in the summer, coinciding with my first purchase @1612p on 22nd July - Typical C S D I.

IMB has form for recovery - 5 of the last 6 divis have all been restored within one month, the exception was last February's when CV19 decimated all stocks.

Thanks to Toff for sharing his knowledge and experience !

Cheers & GLA - CSDI

Tom,
I think we are in same boat. My first buy at £29 and now average £18.68 after my latest add-on today.
This excludes the divis which average just over £2 per share, including this week's divi and shares bought today with no income yet.
My point is, you should be complaining if the SP keeps falling as it is eroding your capital quite seriously.
At some point you will be selling these shares, and don't tell me you wouldn't complain if they were only worth £1.
If you have a big enough capital fund, and you want just income from the shares then yes IMB is about the best you can hope for.
I am a keen follower of Stephen Bland and his HYP who advocates buy and never trade, but diversify with approx 15-20 different shares/sectors and invest equal amount in all - no favouring any share/sector. He has been writing on the subject for years and I wish I had the capital to follow his principles.
I have several HY shares but am fed up with losing capital value and then having divis cut too, especially with last year seeing so many slash divis. Shares like BT, BP/RDSB, HSBA, IMB, have all suffered double whammies !
My shares are all in a small SIPP, so it's tough going, but overall I am "pleased" to have lost less than 10% since starting in January 2018, as comparing to the FTSE that has dropped about 14% over same timeframe.
Cheers & GL - CSDI (Crap Share Dealing Ideas LOL)

Oh well, taken a little plunge and bought back part of what I sold on Wednesday.
Following Toff's excellent lead, he sold 1/3 @ 1285 on Tuesday.
I waited til Wednesday and sold 1/3 @ 1274
My buy back is for less than 1/2 of what I sold, just gone through at 1215p.
With sentiment so badly against GSK, I fear we may have further to drop, but have taken a small risk now.
I would hope that GSK will eventually recover, so expect to hold these for some time to come.
Cheers & GLA - CSDI

NewK
Yepp I was moaning yesterday on IMB about same gifts to directors.
Bloody crazy as I've seen IMB fall 50% from my first purchase
At least GSK only lost 1/3 over 12 months LOL
As you say directors laughing all the way to the bank with free shares. matching shares and then more shares to pay the tax bill with. They are worse than MPs for fiddling the taxes !!
Cheers & GLA - CSDI

Tom
My first purchase of IMB was £3K, it is now worth only £1453 ...
The divi of approx £2 p.a been cut to £1.39 to rub salt in the wound.
And you want me to be pleased with that !

Obv, If u are a buyer you want low price, if you are seller you want a higher price.

Sitting on shares that keep going lower in price, just tie up your capital.
It stops you making other choices.

Cheers - CSDI

Assume wil be announced with results due 11th March.
USD 0.03 suggested in previous RNS assuming cashflow holds.

Interesting call that Robina, and very valid.
I just look at fundamentals with a business in the "sinner" category.
Turnover holding up despite CV19.
P/E ratio below 10.
A problem divi still yielding over 9% after a 1/3 cut.
A business plan to move forward with NGP that sounds a bit wooly to me. I prefer them to concentrate on the established line of selling old fashioned fags - I've never smoked in my life - but don't see it stopping for a long time yet - a bit like the move from oil to greener products - it will happen but not for a long time.
So all things considered, imo, the risk/reward is good here, but that's not to say it won't get worse in either short term or long term.
So Robina with your regret of adding to the position, I presume you are now going to sell.
GLA

Have bought back some IMB this morning @ 1411p, adding 50% more to the ones I sold on Wednesday @ 1505p.
So I've got a 94p price reduction for a 48p divi.
My plan with this batch will be to trade it if I can and hope to sell at £15.
My remaining shares will be held as a core for dividend income. These have much higher average costs of £20.33 each, with divis receivable of approx £2.80 to date.
GLA

The fall continues !
How low can we go ?
I followed Toff's excellent idea of selling before ex div, but only sold 1/3 of my holding @ 1274p taking a loss of around 6%.
My remaining 2/3 has average cost of 1509p, with an average of just under 50p in divis (some held for 3 divis, some for 2).
If i buy back in, it will only be part of what I sold. This is going to take a long time to recover and in the meantime there are better options to invest in (imo). So will sit on the fence for now.
GLA - we need it !

Interesting comment as I just look at the price to buy and sell, as that determines my profit.
Notice that NAV to SP discount has reduced from >10% to around 8% currently.
I look closely at the monthly fact sheet

https://www.aberdeenstandard.com/docs?editionid=cc3f7eae-f4d4-4fda-9a36-ef35708d5e5f

I will be monitoring total return vs IUKD, as the difference in SP movement over time may compensate for the yield variations. Time will tell.

I have sold my VOD recently as well as BP.
I sold part of my GSK yesterday to play the ex div, and not sure if I want to put those funds into another share.
GSK looks like to it could be a long haul to recovery, so cut my weighting from 22% of p/f to around 15% for now.
I am bottom fishing with it atm, and expect to give it a couple of days to see where it goes, having hit another 52 week and 5 year low today.

Cheers & GL - CSDI

Missing posts with me as well - these BBs have a number of magicians working in background - making things disappear !
We have a close at 1421p, a drop of 84p for the 48p divi - but not that surprised as the FTSE took a tumble. If the tumble continues tomorrow I may get chance to buy back at £14 and will buy another small chunk on top of what I sold yesterday using a bit of my GSK proceeds.
On the face of it, wish I had sold more than 1/5 of my holding.
Cheers & GLA - CSDI