Member Info for CSDI1962

Gary,
This was taken from the H1 Results RNS 7/8/20. (see below my coments)
I would not be surprised for some cut back, as the business suffered a drop in AUM in H1, but maintained the divi thanks to sale of Indian business for approx £500m.

The current yield is around 7% which is probably not sustainable. Markets got a boost from Vaccine News in Q4 so hopefully SLA has invested well. We also have a new CEO as Skeoch retired after thos results. Share buybacks continued but I hate those as money down the grid IMO. Wish they would pay a one-off special divi like RIO or MRW if they have surplus cash. IMO, buybacks just say "Management does not know how to spend the money we have left over !" .

Cheers - CSDI

The Board is committed to delivering a dividend that is sustainable over the medium term. At this point in time, our operating performance together with the strength and quality of our balance sheet have enabled the Board to maintain our interim dividend at 7.3p. We also plan to complete the existing £400m share buyback programme (which is 55% complete) during the second half of the year.

Love the optimism from most on here - and notice that Cripes character went quiet after early morning appearance !

Not sure If I've done right thing, but sold 2/7 of my holding near the close at 137p from a purchase at 113p on 19th Jan on basis it's never wrong to take a profit. with oil having risen to high 60s thought there is a chance of pull back next week, so can re-purchase if get chance.

Got a higher average cost of 124p on remaining 5/7. My plan is to sell 2/7 if we get to 170p and leave 3/7 for LTH with target of at least 250p.

I am pretty sure it was (the same) SFO news that kicked SP down to 438p when I first bought on 1/3/18. That only took a couple of months to get to £6 where I sold.

We have a while to wait for 2020 Results, which we should expect to be very poor. What will matter is whether the world is getting back to work, so PFC services are back in demand. There seems to be a good flow of contract news, so should expect future earnings to pick up again. Then of course we could do with SFO announcement. TBH the silence from SFO is worse than a fine because of the uncertainty it creates, whereas a fine can be put into the accounts as a "one-off" no matter the size, and then be discounted to assess future profits.

Cheers & GLA - CSDI

Oh Cripes - you've missed out - wait til results and gauranteed to miss more of the rise.

On other hand - if you are short - you'll need a fat wallet to cover your losses.

Ho Ho ho

No you fool - read the RNS - some time in April

Robina,

I am under water with IMB as you know from rpevious postings.

I've recently sold part at a loss and moved into BATS this week, to reduce the risk of allocating too much to one share.

also done some juggling with part of the shares around ex div day - selling just before @ 1505 and buying back at 1410 but wish I'd waited a few more days to buy back as could have shaved another 77p off the re-purchase !

Have patience and it should recover some way. It might not get back to what we paid and TBH I do not expect to get back to £29 which I paid in Jan 2018. I've got just 3 batches left now, £29, 1411p and 1483p. For the first batch I've had £5.91 in divis, nothing yet for batch 2 and 96.01p for batch 3. So a price of 1688 is my current b/e target. I will probably sell one batch if we get to £15 which should be easily possible before end of 2021.

So the point of all my nonsense is ... what is your plan or do you just intend to hold for long term and forget about.

Just wish I had bought these 20 years ago at £3 - imagine the divis on the way to £40 SP in 2016.
Not to mention they have thrown off a number of other shares as well back in those days.

Hey Ho. If only ...

Keep your chin up ... it's only money ...

Cheers & GL - CSDI

Reported EPS 158.3 in RNS for 2020 Accounts:

Financial Performance

· Business overcame the challenges posed by COVID-19; securing the safety and wellbeing of employees and responding to changes in consumer behaviour

· Tobacco volumes strong but sub-optimal product and market mix result in weak gross profit contribution

· A more disciplined approach in NGP reduced H2 losses after a disappointing H1

· Strengthened Executive Team with key external leadership appointments providing fresh skills and perspectives to complement existing experience

· Comprehensive strategic review underway with a capital markets update scheduled for 27 January

· Completed sale of Premium Cigars business on 29 October 2020; proceeds used to reduce debt

· Group net revenue up +0.8%

· Tobacco volume decline of -2.1% reflecting better market size and share trends in several markets

· Tobacco net revenue +1.8% but weaker mix impacting gross profit contribution

· Moderation of NGP net revenue decline; H1: -43%, H2: -9% with FY down 27%

· Adjusted EPS down -5.6% reflecting reduced tobacco profit with COVID-19 and regulatory costs; and losses in NGP

· Reported EPS up 49.4% at 158.3p reflecting prior year impairment charge for Premium Cigar sale

· Strong cash conversion 127%; 107% excluding timing benefit on duty payments

· Annual dividend of 137.7 pence per share reflecting rebased payment announced in May

Lucky you if you can trade at £30K a batch to make £500 a pop !!
Less than 10% of my clients earn that in a year and even fewer have savings or pension pots at that level - mind you I do live in the NW and not SE.

Yes Toff - an excellent call - let's hope no more Black Swans on the horizon.
It's taken a while to build the 1220-1220 base, but let's see where we can go to.

As you know from my numerous postings, I am well under water, at an average 1460, so plan to pick off my batches as they exceed original costs, boosted by some divis over next 12 months. My original target of £16 may be ambitious.
I would be surprised if GSK gets back to anywhere near £18 before the split is completed, and my first selling target is 1350.

Thanks to your observations, I would expect to "trade around the divi" each quarter but only with 1 or 2 of the 6 batches as it is likely the SP will not drop back for one of them if we can go on a bull run taking the FTSE back over 7000.

Keep up the great predictions and calls ! (As you say, too many of us posters are great predictors after the events LOL)

Cheers - CSDI

TR
It might be helpful to other posters if you quote your dollar prices for all transactions if you are dealing with ADRs or ADS.

I only have access to GBP quote - but for those that can do both - it may create an "arbitrage opportunity".
I assume the ADR is worth 2x GSK.L

We have had a big move in cable over last 12 months and for those with a knowledge of Foreign Exchange, they may be able to use it to their advantage (or not as case may be).

Cheers - CSDI

PS. Nice to see a some positive SP action this week. I need quite a few weeks like this to improve my position.

If only we all knew that.

The risk/reward is clearly better now, 3 yrs after my first purchase at £29 when the divi was around 6% and the P/E was around 12.
It baffles me how this share remains so under-valued, but the market does what the market does best ... remains irrational in lots of areas.

The catch is - it is in a horrific bear trend and we do not know when that will end.
and When it does end ... the Trend will be our friend (again)

The other catch is the P/E ratio shows as 8.6 on LSE, but 5.4 on Sharecast. Difference of 50% based on different P/E models.
so divi not as well covered under the different models of calculation !!
TBH - This was pointed out to me by the knowledgable Toff-Appleton a few months ago

Hi TR
Note you sell GSK at £12.23 yesterday, but say the divi is 7.28% as you buy in ADS.

You do know how to confuse me - may be that's why I am CSDI Lol.

Dan - I thought your SP Analysis was perfect LOL including its hidden message !
Spread betting can be great if you have tight control over it.
The issue is temporary price slips, fat finger trades or market mayhem for 5 mins.
In July 2005, I was very lucky to make over £1000 in a day when FTSE fell few hundred pts and bounced staright back.
But in Feb 2007 got wiped out when the Dow Jones slipped over 1000 pts and despite having stop loss in place at 100 pts it got bypassed and CMC Markets closed my position emptying my account and demanding funds. The Dow was back to where it was when I looked at 8am next day and could not believe my account had a minus balance !!
you win some , you lose some. So no point moaning when it goes wrong as no one forces us to bet or buy shares etc.
Needless to say, not gone back to S-B-ing as can't afford to lose.
A nice day for my HY shares today for a change !
Cheers and take care Dan

Good luck with it Toff.
I'm fully invested atm (not very much compared to some unfortunately), but always have BRWM on my watchlist and that has been on spectacular run since the Covid blip last year.
I would be reluctant to chase any of the big miners currently, and have my own problem with mid-cap gold miner CEY which has problems at its single mine and a falling gold price to fight with. I would think chance of 50% rise more likely here than the big caps. (I was looking for 25% from my buy in price, but down 16% in just under 3 months.)
Meanwhile GSK inching above the 1220 wall that's been in its way for a week or so, got a long way to go back to my first target of £14 en-route to my mountain summit at £16. No more top ups from me allowed LOL. When will the brokers chnage their tac and say GSK is under-valued & recommend TP of £18 ?
Cheers - CSDI

Hi Gnome
I've been investing in CEY since Feb 2011 and always struggled to do well, but did eventually get into profits before closing an old investment account in 2017.
Having started a new investment (SIPP) in 2018 I have recently bought some more CEY and again find myself under water about 16% down after 3 months, with an average cost around 125p. I expect to be here for a while but disappointed the same old chest-nuts are here. CEY has been "talking" about West African resources for all of these 10 years, and yet still has only one gold producing facilty at Sukari. Clearly the current SP is suffering due to the waste issues, the recent drop in gold prices and the fact we only have the single asset. How much longer before CEY actually has another working mine to help when Sukari has issues ?
It is galling when a junior miner like GGP with no actual production in sight, has MC of £865m, while CEY has £300m in the bank, has been making profit for years now and only has MC £ 1213m, just a few million more than a embryonic company.
Irrational markets spring to mind..

Cheers & GL to all CEY holders - CSDI

disappointing for the small PI who is not liekly to participate, and therefore suffer dilution leading to lower SP.
Why can't they propose at a premium or at least market price, as a position of strength.
Alternatively offer a rights issue so all can fairly participate.
something to be wary of in future as only bought into this on 30th December.
Was Not expecting any great capital gains but was expecting secure income without big down side, subject to market shenanigans like Covid etc which are always a potential threat.
This increase in capital effectively wipes out the SP rise since 31/12/20 - thanks a bunch !
Yours truly Grumpy - CSDI

Nice work TLG

You will find it in the accounts RNS:

Tobacco Net Revenue

Europe

£m

3,471

3,505

-1.0%

-0.0%

Americas

£m

2,409

2,361

+2.0%

+1.9%

Africa, Asia and Australasia

£m

1,904

1,847

+3.1%

+5.0%

Total Group

£m

7,784

7,713

+0.9%

+1.8%

Hi Baffled
Your p/f sounds tricky too.
My overall p/f loss is not too bad all things considered at around 6% from commencement.
Also I do not have a great sum involved.
I have 25 batches in total in my p/f - with 6 in GSK, 3 in IMB, 3 in CEY, 3 in PFC, 3 in RDSB, 2 in ASEI, 1 in BATS,NG,SSE,SLA&SUPR. Where I have more than 1 batch I am happy to sell in parts esp if that batch is in profit.
I have sold other earlier batches of GSK, IMB and RDSB picking up small profits on those.
I have found it can be profitable to sell just before ex-div and buy back afterwards too, having done that recently with GSK and IMB. This helps reduce average costs if successful.
I am avoiding banks for now, but maybe missing out there, as believe big problems to come with write-offs when we have to pay back the Covid finances. I bought HSBC at £7 in 2018, but sold out at £5 last year - pleased I did.
I am allergic to LLOY after the 2008 crash as I bought some in 2007 at approx 550p in an old/closed SIPP.
with all the RIs and Govt interference those shares would have lost >90% if still held.
Today i've just sold AV for 18% profit after 3 months, and have bought back into SLA with the proceeds as the SLA divi is beter than AV for now - with chance SLA may be cutting on the cards
Cheers

Jr
I've been in and out of AV and SLA - switch from one to the other.
Originally bought SLA in 2018 before the consolidation. Hate them as get less shares, means lower divi going fwd and nearly always hits the SP too.
Any time I see mention of RIs and consols my first reaction is to sell, go to cash and then anlayse as normally SP falls are rapid !!
I got out of SLA before xmas as fancied AV.
I like to compare 12/24/36 month charts with similar shares and if notice one is underperforming for no obvious reason then like to pick the worse performer !
I've done it well with BP/RDSB last year, and BT/VOD.
This is my first adventure in BATS, as IMB lagged in a big way for a long time.
If you have patience it can work, but if the dog is in the kennel for good reason you have problem getting your money back.
Caveat Emptor

TR - anything wrong with your calculator ??

You say 80p = 7.28% yield

80/1223 = 6.54% yield.

Any chance you can pay me 7.28% as Mr Market not obliging LOL

Cheers - CSDI