Member Info for CSDI1962

Nice find Siko - thanks for info.
Let's hope this translates into more profits, as CEY pays massive amounts to the Egyptian authorities and fuel taxes.
It is great news if it brings to conclusion the court case that has dragged on for many years.
Horgan appears to be moving things forward sensibly, after many years of weak leadership culminating in the West Wall debacle which has forced the company to lower production guidance from Sukari.
Cheers & GLA - CSDI

Hi Andsoforth
Yes agree with your thoughts. No point swapping and trying to be clever if only holding small amounts as trading costs eat in.
I've been well overweight with IMB since first buying in 2018. Reckon I've had 3-4 times as much as I would like at some stages.
Now down to 13% of p/f is a lot more comfrtable than 27% I had in December. The current 13% could easily be split bw IMB and BATS, like I have with my gold mining shares where I have 6% p/f in CEY and POLY each.
I was very happy with my BATS trade last month, making 7% profit in two weeks - would be nice to have a few of them every month. I think there is a good chance I will be buying BATS again soon, but only if I finance it with a sale from IMB, as determined to keep my tobacco sector allocation at this level as a max.
Looking at the charts, BATS may be heading down a bit after two hits at 2850-2875 in the last month. I would be looking to buy in below £27 if I can get chance.
GL my friend
Cheers - CSDI

EPS is a figure that is manipulated significantly depending on whether you use statutory accounts or adjusted figures (stripping out one offs and exceptionals). EPS is effected by "non-cash" items such as depreciation, goodwill adjustments etc, and in the case of 2019 figures I suspect a lot of costs were attributed to NGP set up. A lot is made of reporting profits before interest,depreciation etc aka EBITDA, but that masks a huge amount in the accounts.
Dividends are more dependant on "cashflow", so the 1/3 divi reduction was as a result of costs on repositioning the business (heaven knows why you waste money on restructures) and to allow more long term debt to be repaid in priority over dividends. IMB is great at selling fags around the world, and is very profitable, but going down the NGP route is open to mass competition and therefore less future profits. Fags retain a great pricing premium judging by what they cost !
Why so many FTSE companies believe debt is good (albeeit we have a historically low interest rate) as that is the main killer of any business. IMB does have a big debt burden of £26B showing in the last accounts, with £18B valued as "intangible assets" on the balance sheet. If interest rates return to a normal rate (say 5%) at some point in the future the interest burden will wipe out a huge chunk of current profit.
Cheers - CSDI

Hi All
I note the qurterly production reprt seems to be about 2 weeks later than it used to be. I am sure with my previous holdings the Q1 report was always out before 10th April.
So what can we expect this time ?
It always seemed to be a case of "under-promise" and over deliver during previous management's times.
with clearance of the west wall in progress, can we expect any improvement on the reduced production guidance.
The SP is still down over 50% from last summer, and I am not expecting a return to those dizzy heights for at least a couple of years. As a result of slow progress I decided to cut my holding by 1/3 last month, and put those funds into another goldie -Polymetal, so that I have similar amounts invested in both. Typically for me, as soon as I sold some CEY, the SP levelled off and has climbed a little (approx 5%), while the POLY shares I bought are down about 2% !
The prospective developments in West Africa seems to have been talked about for over a decade without any real progress or substance, so we remain dependant on the single Sukari asset.
The CEY divi offers a little income (only 3C this time), while we await clearance of the mine-waste, and the POLY divi is roughly double that this time around. It will be interesting to see which turns out to be the better investment.

Cheers & GLA - CSDI

Hi Capital
You can never "know" what is going to happen.
At the mo, I have 3 batches of IMB and none in BATS after my early sell at 2747 ish. Would have done better if waited another week before selling.
BATS got downgraded this week by one of the big brokers, so has dropped more than IMB recently.
My plan is to keep some skin in the game on long term basis, and trade 1 or 2 batches.
both are not favoured by the city, so my view FWIW is to sell around recent 6 month highs, BATS 2925 and IMB 1650 and hope to buy back 5-10% lower on trading basis.
For Long term investing, it is simpler to keep hold if already invested, or pound cost average your way back in if not invested.
If you are looking at dividend payers, there are some interesting options out there.
My p/f consists of the following HY shares (divi yield in brackets):
ASEI (5.93%) AEWU (9.05%) CEY (5.87%) GSK (6.06%) IMB (8.93%) NG. (5.4%) POLY (6.32%) SUPR (5.23%).
Other popular HY shares include AV. (5.19%) BP. (5.27%) BATS (7.74%) SSE (519%) VOD (6.02%).
Others less popular CMHY (5.26%) NCYF (8.54%) HHI (5.76%) PSN (7.32%) RIO (6.61%)
There are plenty other HY shares if you are looking for divi income. For research on divis I use:

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/

Not sure if that is any use if you are intent on investing in BATS only.
As always, nothing I say is suggested as advice, but more of an ideas base for consideration.

Cheers - CSDI

Hi again S-i-d-i
That would be wonderful. We've got two months before this goes ex-div on 3rd June.
Assuming we are looking at 32p + 1 or 2% for CPI, I would hope to see a move towards 950.
It's been stuck in the £8-£8.80 range for three months, and is just hanging at £9.
It's never going to be a racy-share, but I think you can eke out somewhere iro 10-20% p.a by buying below 850p and selling about £1 higher with the divi, then repurchasing after ex-div falls.
Other utility shares seem to be doing well such as SSE and UU.
Even the dog called CNA is trying to recover, and has several brokers targetting 70-75p now.
GL my friend.
Cheers - CSDI

Hi Andsoforth
It seems to me IMB has outperformed BATS for a while now.
It is probably becuase IMB suffered a bigger drop from ATH at £40 down to £13 while BATS only dropped about 50% form its comparative ATH. On the face of it both have similar P/E ratios and divi yields, but future growth seems non-existent.
I think there is chance here to switch from one to the other after periods of under-performance against the other.
I am sure running a chart comparison over any period of more than 3 months will highlight oportunities if so inclined.
These can be dovetailed with ex-div dates which are neatly spaced a few weeks apart, which often creates a short-term drop in SPs.
These are just my thoughts and ideas for others to consider.
GLA - CSDI

Welcome to the geriatric's club.
I am very pleased with the SP progress having only bought 2-3 weeks ago.
It;s unusual for me to see any share move up after any recent purchase.
It seems a few REITs are making good progress at the moment, presumably on the back of confidence from the Economy Re-opening potential. I've got SUPR with AEWU and might even add WHR which seems to be going great guns too.
The divi here is much higher than SUPR and WHR, but which one has the best total return potential ?
GLA - CSDI

Nice to see a bit of momentum in the SP since year end.
We are up approx 13% (40p) since 31/12 vs the FTSE gain of around 6%.
The board have indicated divis will be at least 21.7p for the year.
It's been in the doldrums for a while, but looks like a number of the recovery shares in the trust performing well recently (CMCX, BATS, SSE).
Fingers crossed for a return to £4 + over next 6-9 months.
A sound divi to keep us happy while we wait for some SP growth.
This trust seems to be a nice stocking filler as a core holding in a balnced p/f.
Cheers & GLA - CSDI

Hi Throne
I am pretty fed up with Embark. Divdends should be paid on due date, not a week or several later.
I was promised this divi by close of play today, when I enquired on 1st April, as always arrived on time before Embark took over.
As I now have half of my p/f for trading I am spending too much on commissions, so I may well transfer to a much lower cost provider. I have asked Embark to offer a "frequent trader" discount, as well as lodging a formal complaint over delayed divis.
My worry is that all of my shares are in a SIPP and it can take 3 months to transfer to a new provider, which could be a disaster if unable to trade movements. Not a worry for my long term investments.
Funny enough IMB is a long term hold with my original purchase from 2018, and I have two trading batches, that I am likely to sell before ex div and buy back if possible. I have a TP of 1650 in mind for the two trade batches and happy to switch between IMB & BATS to keep my sector weighting.
I would like to have option for drip too, as used to have this facility in a previous SIPP with Halifax/AJ Bell.
Overall I am appalled with Embark's service since taking over from AT in January.
do you pay £15 commission for each trade as well ?
Cheers - CSDI

Hello S-i-d-i,
Did you get your divi, as I'm still waiting !
Cheers - CSDI

Hi Robina
Is the pain reducing now we've gone up 12% in just under 5 weeks ?
My current loss is down to 7% now, with the divis counted in.
After selling and buying back around ex divs, and a nice trade on BATS, I only need 77p rise from here to get to break-even on all my tobacco purchases since 2018.
I'm hoping for a run up to 1650 to sell one of my batches before next months ex div.
I'll have to keep my 2018 purchases for the long-run, as will take about another 6 years dividends to cover those losses - ouch.
GL Robina
Cheers - CSDI

My provider is useless with divis.
Embark took over from AT in January, with my stocktrade account (part of Scot Widows SIPP) and every divi has been dreadfully late.
Yestreday got a divi due from 26/3 for ASEI.
Waiting for IMB divi due 31/3.
Now waiting for GSK divi.
already had some compensation, and have two complaints in progress.
Ultimatley I expect the account will get closed, but as it is in a pension it would mean not being able to access the markets for about 3 months while shares get transferred over to a new provider. Not sure if it is worth the hassle of moving if I can get decent financial compensation. I'm only 58 and expect to have this SIPP for at least 10 more years, assuming I don't pop my clogs unexpectedly - but then I won't be worried will I - LOL
Cheers & GLA - CSDI

wow - who killed the lizard men ?
Have we beaten £13 at last ?
I certainly hope so, as my average cost is 1460p.
MarquessR must have the Midas touch as timing on this is brilliant.
Onwards and upwards we all hope !
Cheers - CSDI

The SP is rising for a number of reasons currently.
1. Economies re-opening is the main driver atm, there has been a boost in most UK shares over the last few days and IMB is palying catch-up (very belatedly). There will be a surge in social activity shortly, which will increase demand for fags.
2. The FTSE has lagged all main markets for a considerable time. While the US and European Bourses have all been repeatedly making new ATHs, the FTSE is about 11% below its 2018 ATH. I seem to recall the US DJIA was roughly 2 x FTSE a decade ago, and now it is approx 5 times FTSE100 !!
3. The div payment last week will be auto reinvested for many IIs and PIs creating a rise of roughly 2%.
4. The next ex div in May is only half the recent divi so is not likely to trigger the big fall as last time of about 150p.
5. With BATS going ex div recently, a good chance funds have been moved from BATS to IMB. If you look at a chart comparison over the last 6 months, you will see IMB has surged ahead of BATS particularly since BATS ex div on 25/3.
6. The trend is our friend for now and if we follow the Nov to Jan rise from 1350 to 1650, we are hopfully on our way to retest the January resistance at that upper level.
Onwards and upwards ... hopefully
GLA - CSDI

I believe there has been concerted efforts to control the GSK price since start of this year.
If you can read back some of Toff_Appleton's posts he riases a number of issues that point in this direction.
starting just before FY results, both CS and DB issued "sell notes" when all other brokers were neutral or positive.
This started a chain of down-turns in the SP, despite the majority of brokers being bullish.
There was a clear control at £14 that stopped any rises above that level, and when we got to ex div date the SP dropped swiftly with a further re-issue of these brokers sell notes and 1150 target.
From there the SP tumbled to below £12, consolidated around £12 then had a rapid-fire run to just below £13 where we have been controlled for about 4 weeks.
It seems the round £ levels of £12,13 and £14 all being used heavily to control the SP.
I thought we had broken above £13 a fortnight ago only to be dragged down like a magnet.
The SP is historically low for a company with these earnings and dividends.
The outlook is slow with the forthcoming split, and it seems unlikely we will be running back to the £15-£18 range we were in just 6 months ago, anytime before the business is restructured.
I am sure the directors are filling their boots with cheap options during 2021, and will reep excessive gains after the split in 2023. Meanwhile PIs just have to suffer and live off the scraps, and big institutions/investors sit on the shares while they are yielding 6% this year, with a future divi cut already priced in.
It is so disappointing that GSK has not been able to profit from a pendemic that should allow candy to be taken from a baby.
Burp as Shawz says
Cheers & GLA - CSDI

Hi Cap-pig
Never easy to know when to get back in.
My main failing is buying back when SP is falling, rather than wait for an upturn.
BATS had a riliant run in March with a lot of up days.
Quite often we have seen sharp rallys at start of month and then drift down.
BATS had a biggish fall yesterday, when FTSE was going up, so hard to judge.
My plan is to buy back in around 2650 if chance arises.
No worries if not as plenty of other fish in the sea.
GLA - CSDI

Hi again Jr,
Yes mayhem when-ever I pick a share.
Note that IMB held up well today in comparison to BATS, maybe due to divis being reinvested.
As IMB is one of my core holdings (i.e paid too much for), I am not likely to sell before next ex div in about 6-7 weeks.
BATS is a trading share for me if it falls into my buy zone. Already got 13% of p/f in baccy sector against my target of 10% per sector.
As for POLY, yep I bought that last week only to watch it fall over 1% every day until yesterday.
with 6% of each CEY and POLY really need Gold to strat climbing.
Cheers & GL - CSDI

I am waiting for mine with Stocktrade/Embark.
They are totally incompetent as since taking over from Alliance Trst (end of Jan) not one of my divis has arrived on time.
I had to wait over a month for my first one with HHI.
It is pretty infuriating when all my p/f is geared toward HY shares.
Hey ho, had one lot of compo so far, got another complaint registered and there will be another one soon I am sure.
TBH, I am on the verge of transferring my whole SIPP account - but that would mean no access to trading for quite a few weeks as it takes ages to transfer "in-specie" accounts.
Cheers & GLA - CSDI

Hi Jr
I'm in same boat but sold at 2747 as did not expect the further £1 rise to ex div date.
TBH, it's all total guess work. No one one knows what will happen tomorrow etc
I am hoping to get back in close to 2650 but no idea if it will get there.
I've got a number of shares on my watchlist and just waiting for any one to drop into buy territory.
With the FTSE lagging all other main markets, we are out of kilter, but if there is a leg down coming from over the pond, we are sure to feel it.
If you believe in charts then you might be able to selct a decent entry level, but in my eyes charts are worthless for predicting the future, but great for looking in the mirror.
GL whatever you choose.
in the meantime I am holding IMB too, so not sure if I really want to see BATS fall too far !?
Cheers - CSDI