Member Info for CSDI1962

Dan.
This share is really great and I love the banter with your goodself and Patient etc.
But I was compelled to escape from Mikey's drivel - I could not take any more - putting up with constant moaning is worse than losing 20% on my GGP trade !
Cheers - CSDI

Hi Robina
Yes I know the feeling
Hence my choice of acronym - Crap Share Dealing Ideas
The general market movements have the biggest sway - yesterday was a case of "A rising tide floats most boats".
But there does seem to be definite exaggeration around ex div dates.
My biggest two shareholdings are GSK and IMB and both go ex div this week.
As I am losing with both holdings having bought several times each, I am just trying to cut my losses little by little, in the knowledge that both will be long term holdings. IMB I have held since Jan 2018, and GSK only since July 2020, but have previously bought and sold GSK several times since starting my SIPP in Jan 2018.
Cheers & GLA - CSDI

Hi Soton

I have just increased my p/f weighting from 4% to 9% on this in time for the Q1 divi.
I decided to sell my VOD at break-even, as just recived that divi after a weeks delay, so just got a little extra to add to ASEI.

Good luck - CSDI

Mikey - I will agree with you today as I have sold out.
No moaning from me - just dealing with it.
No one forces us to buy shares that turn into duds.
I have just sold GGP too, for a 20% loss.
But you know what - I have no one to blame but me !!
TBH, Mikey I will be glad not to see or read any more of your drivel.

GLA and to Mikey too. I hope VOD does well for all holders, but I have decided to move my money elsewhere where it may do better (or not as normal LOL)

Cheers - CSDI

Guys - I have some bad news and some good news.
The bad news is I am moving out of the VOD chatroom, because of the good news ..
I have just sold my VOD shares at 134.3p, at break -even, as my divi eventually got paid today, to give me a little surplus of about 2.5%.
This is good news for VOD holders as you are now free of the CSDI curse, which causes SPs to fall after purchase, and to rise after selling. I am confident you will all benefit that I am no longer an owner of VOD shares.
Just in case you want to avoid where this bit of money has gone, I have added to my ASEI shares as they were my lowest % holding and have a divi of about 6.3% (a tad higher than VOD) which is paid quarterly.
GLA and bye for now
Cheers - CSDI

Hi Folks
I have been researching the last 8 ex divs, to try and work out the best way to play the ex div.
Just before the last one in November, the knowledgable poster Toff_Appleton suggested it is best to sell just before and buy back soon after and he was spot on !

My research shows that for 5 of the last 6 divis, you could have profited by buying the day before ex div, and then holding for one month would have seen the SP rise above the starting point (day before ex div), so you would have collected the dividend and a profit too.

TBF to T_A, you could have made more if you sold the day before ex div, and then selected the "best day" to buy back when the SP was lowest. (That is easy with hindsight, but impossible to know at the time)

so here are the key stats I have found:
48p ex-div 26/11/20:
Nov 25th = 1491, 26th = 1420, 30th = 1361 (L), Dec 24th = 1544.

20.85p ex-div 20/8/20:
Aug 19th = 1298, 20th = 1265, Sept 1st = 1246 (L), Sept 18th = 1380

28/5/20 Ex div = 20.85p:
May 27th = 1519, 28th = 1504, 29th = 1466 (L), Jun 26th = 1525p

20/2/20 Ex div = 72.01p
Feb 19th = 1844, 20th = 1709, Mar 2nd = 1563, Mar 20th = 1311 (L) after Covid shock

20/11/19 Ex div = 72p:
Nov 20th = 1761, 21st = 1709, 25th/26th = 1669 (L), Dec 20th = 1849.

I could go back further, but this gives idea of possible patterns.
(L) = Lowest point after ex div, within one month
All above SPs based on closing prices, do not take account of intra-day movements.

FWIW I have 5 batches of IMB. The first batch bought at £29 in Jan 2018, which will be a LTH for me.
My plan is to sell 1 or 2 batches on Wednesday, and aim to buy back after drop bigger than 48p.
If it works it will lower my average costs a little. If it fails I am left with 3 or 4 batches which would need a higher SP to get back to break even.

During November I bought one batch at 1483 one week before ex div, which I still hold.
I sold one batch at 1493 before ex div, which I had bought at 1363 in October.
Then bought one more batch on 1st December at 1378, which was sold for 1565 on 30th December.

I don't think it made sense to buy at 1483 and sell at 1493, but was hoping the final week would gain more than 10p.
The sale was done because I was well over my 20% max target for any one holding.
This time I do not have funds to buy any more batches.

Just hope this gives some ideas.
For LTHers probably best to leave alone.
For those nimble traders like Toff, I hope there will be opportunity to make a little (or a lot) extra.

GLA and DYOR and please don't blame CSDI if it all fails (Crap Share Dealing Ideas LOL)
Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future performance etc.
This is a risk/reward business with no guarantee of making a profit !

Cheers - CSDI

Hi Papu
Best advice I can offer is generally to do the opposite of what I do.

I am blessed with natural skills of buying before the SP drops like a stone, and sell before SPs take-off !

I am called C S D I with good reason LOL (Crap Share Dealing Ideas)

GSK is my biggest investment at 22% of my SIPP (it's not a lot compared to most others I read about) and all 7 purchases since July are at a loss ! I am going to need a lot of patience to get anywhere with this one, but have been in this boat with GSK several times before, and normally avoid drowning. Let's hope the captain sails us to safety again.

Cheers and GLA - CSDI

It was me - thank you !
CSDI

Dan - you missed your vocation mate - you should be on The Stage !

Nothing wrong with a night out at the casino, and listening to some good old loud rock music.
My favourite band has been AC/DC - seen them about 5 or 6 times back in the 80s and 90s.
Best live performance I've ever seen was Slade in 1979 (We'll bring the House Down) tour I think at Liverpool Empire.
Only about 2000-3000 but Noddy was amazing. I was at Donington in 1984 with over 100,000 when AC/DC headlined after sets by Van Halen and Ozzy Ozbourne ! Contrast that with seeing Gilbert O Sullivan about 15 years ago - superb ly******

Robleo
All profit and dividends in an ISA are tax exempt.
It does not count towards the annual £2K divi allowance at 0%.
As you say, with pension you can withdraw 25% as a TFLS, thereafter withdrawals are taxed at your standard rate.
As I am still working as a ltd company I manage my tax affairs on my own.
Basic Salary approx £9K to avoid employee and employer NICs, rental income up to personal allowance threshold, Then divi income at 7.5% tax rate. Any pension withdrawal is taxed at 20%, as I have already taken 25% TFLS.
My otther little trick is to put £4K in my SIPP (max allowed in drawdown) if I have funds available, so that I can have £1K tax free, leaving 3k in the SIPP or taking out at 20% rate, having saved 19% corporation tax on the 4K.
As tesco preach ... every little helps.

Rob - depends what you call a holiday. with Covid you can go to your local park free of charge.
I am hoping for VOD to get to 150-160. Funny whenever I've watched VOD without being invested its up at £2.
When I bought first time it dropped from there without breaking sweat down to 150 and then 130 before worse.
I sold at those two levels on the way down from my 2018 purchase.
Fast fwd to early Dec 2020 back in at 133p in pursuit of the annual divi.
Cheers - CSDI

Sounds like good news Toff. Let CS burn in hell.
First time GSK has risen more than 1% in a day for 15 sessions.
I wonder how much of a bounce we will get in next 3 days as I am looking to sell about 50% of my GSK holding too.
It does seem perverse to expect an opportunity to get in lower when we want to be "long"

Cheers - CSDI

No ISAs or savings for me - just the remnants of an old employer pension scheme.
Its from the 1980s before I worked for myself, so not much in it.
I transferred first part into a SIPP in 2007 and cashed it in in 2017 when I was 55.
Then transferred the remaining part to a new SIPP in Jan 2018 with Scot Widows and their Stocktrade share system for self-investing.
I've never been keen on allowing anyone else to manage my pension and then take a cut whether the value went up or down as that guarantees less remaining for me.
I am clearly not very good at investing in individual shares but at least all mistakes are my own and I choose how much it costs.
I have taken more out of the pension over the last 3 years or so, than I would have accessed by age 75.
And I still have about 50% left which fits nicely into the low cost brackets.
My aim was to draw about 5% p.a in divis from here, which is not far short of the annual pension I would have got at age 65 originally. but with the fall in capital value as at 31 March 2020 that would make too big a hole, so I've not withdrawn anything for a while and it has recovered nicely since the slump. I am still in negative territory but hopeful I can get back to break-even with a bit of luck and then aim to restart withdrawals.
It would be nice to have it an ISA, but I have to pay tax on any withdrawls, so no point yet as that takes 20% off my capital to reinvest.
My first SIPP was with Halifax Share Dealing and did not need an IFA to approve, whereas this 2nd part did unfortunately and I did not want to pay anything more than a one off fee to set up. An IFA taking 0.5%-1% p.a makes a lot of money for doing nothing, and with a small SIPP like mine woud probably want more than 1% p.a.
My eldest sister retired over 10 yrs ago as an IFA and would not touch my pension with a barge pole.
She only considered clients with at least £500K in a pension - so she has been retired since she was 52 - whereas I will be working until at least 67. No regrets - it is what it is - I have a good life taking it easy working from home - and have been able to be at home while all of the boys have grown up - oldest 33 and yougest 19.
Gosh that was a bit of a ramble ...
Apologies all I forgot this is a VOD BB
Cheers and have a good weekend everyone - CSDI
PS. My VOD holding of 5% of SIPP, is currently in profit by nearly 3% - whoo whoo

Papucel

Shares nearly always drop on "ex div" date and all things being equal the SP would fall by the amount of the divi.
But of course, if the market has a bad day on ex div day (now always a Thursday in UK) the SP may fall > divi amount.
conversely if great news came out on ex div day, you could see a rise in the SP even with the ex div, but this is much more unlikely.
The SP would move on any day in any case so the ex div is just an added factor.

Over the last few years, the big divi paying FTSE shares seem to have been targetted to amplify the move.
As I've noted the the last 2 quarters have seen big falls starting with the ex div date. One of 80p in Nov and more in the August. Of course this may have been just the market moving as normal, but it does seem to be a manipulated move.

There is no way of knowing what will happen over the next couple of weeks, but I would guess a fall from Wednesdays close is likely, but knowing my luck the exact opposite will happen.

In years gone by, the way to make money with divis was to buy just before, and hold for a couple of weeks and the SP would bounce back up allowing you to profit from the divi, especially when the markets were in a bull trend.

so there is no way of knowing what will happen and definitely no guarantees.

If I see a concerted rise in the SP over the first 3 days of next week I am likely to sell a chunk of my shares on Wednesday and aim to buy back at a lower price purely to get a better/lower average cost. If the SP remains flat for the next 3 days I will be more inclined just to leave them be.

With respect to the pay date in April, this has less effect on the SP. Although I have noted that if a significant number of holders decide to reinvest the divi with a DRIP scheme or a Scrip scheme this can help the SP rise a bit.

You are entitled to the divi payment provided you own the share on Thursday morning's open, and if you sell afterwards you are still entitled to that payment based on ex-div date. Obviously you are not entitled to divis if you do not hold the share on the relevant ex-div date.

I hope that explains my thoughts.

I also hold IMB and RDSB which go ex div on Thursday.
RDSB I will not be trying to sell and re-buy as my holding is quite small and the divi is only 12p under 1% of SP.
With GSK the 23p = 1.8% of SP. and my holding = 22% of my p/f
with IMB the divi is 48.01p so is 3.2% of SP and I woud plan to sell either 20% or 40% of my shares there, as IMB is 19% of my SIPP.
With small % holdings I would not try to average down, but as GSK and IMB are big amounts for me I can sensibly split into amounts to trade/average down and amounts to hold.

Cheers and GLA - CSDI

Hi Dan.
No - still not got my divis - one was due 29th January and VOD on 5th Feb !!
complaint been submitted to gether with request for compo.
Stocktrade has recently been taken over by Embark (since 25th Jan) - clearly in a big mess.
Nice to see HWSNBN with a postive note on todays close. But not expecting a leopard to change his spots.
Have a good weekend my (virtual) friend and everybody else too !
Cheers - CSDI

Mimilissa has made a good point about my postings.

In one breath I say - Iam not selling up
In another - I am looking to sell 50% around ex div to buy back lower.

I am not trying to mislead anyone here.
My intention is very much to keep hold until SP recovers to at least £15, as my original target was £16-£17.
The sell 50% plan/idea, is a plan to lower average costs using the divi drop. I am not sure how successful it may be, but last qtr there was an 80p drop for a 19p divi.
I have held GSK on and off for nearly 14 years, and usually aim to sell around £16 and buy below £15.
The current drop from >£18 to below £12 was not expected.

Hope that clarifies my intentions/thoughts.

Cheers - CSDI

Oops of course not. It is under the 2017 plan.
Very suspsicious how it turns up on the lowest SP of many years .... don't tell me it is a coincidence

Just seen the latest RNS - Directors options !
Offered at £12.75 - multi year lows
with 50% awarded on 10/2/2022, 25% on 10/2/23 and 25% on 10/2/24
What about the suffering LTHers
It does make me annoyed how they help themselves.
Can we vote against it ?

Daniel - I'm telling you !!
Final warning young ? man LOL

Robina

You really need to check your facts or your typing - where do you get 28 +28 +48 +48 from cos that is a lot more than we are
getting this year. I would like your 152p but we're only being paid 137p - so if you can send me the 15p for each one of my shares I can buy Mrs CSDI a nice meal and choccies for Valentines Day

I plead guilty to the sarcasm.

I am not a trader, and am looking at a long term recovery plan for my losses with current average price of 1453p.
If you are day trading using the candlesticks then good luck to you.
Can these predict when a change in trend will arrive, 'cos that is what we all need to know.
My understanding of charts is they can only tell us what has happened in the rear view mirror, but I know there is an army of Technical Analysts who use various techniques for trading.

The city is working against GSK (according to Toff_A) and appears to be driving the SP down. Any broker targets above current SP are being totally ignored, and the minority of sell targets appear to have all the influence at the moment.

The conference call last week was a shocker and only fuels the downward trend. but at what point is the market going to say ok this is really under valued now, so lets push the SP back up to sensible levels above £14.

History is on the side of a recovery, but as well all know
Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

Next week is ex div date and again according to Toff this will likely mean a much biger fall than the 23p divi.
My own reserach shows the SP dropped from 1611 to 1472 from Aug 12th to 28th for a 19p div on 13th August.
The Nov divi of 19p saw a fall from 1463p on 11th to 1383 on 27th.
So I am inclined to sell about 50% of my holding just before ex div and hope to buy it back lower.

It should be noted that on both occasions there were rises of 56p and 64p on the 3 days before ex div.

These days the ex divs seem to act as trigger for bigger falls, whereas in years gone by the fall was just similar to the divi and during any decent bull market the divi was easy income and a comfortable add to your position. how times have changed.

Any meaningful fall around the ex div will bring toff's £12 prediction to fruition ... as painful as that will be for LTHers.

Cheers & GLA - CSDI