Member Info for CrustyPete

Yes steve, I agree, that is why I said "everyone is entitled to an opinion".... And I also agree wholeheartedly that I "like the majority of shareholders want the highest price possible for any asset disposals we may make.". I simply believe that any expectation based upon direct comparison with Cove will lead to disappointment. But I would love to be wrong. Good night and good luck one and all.

Well everyone is entitled to an opinion Steve but Cove was a one off and now, in hindsight, and in the light of subsequent events looks totally over priced; it is a bit like those who bought a house just before the 2008 financial crisis. Moreover no-one is talking about Aminex or Solo being the target of a "take over " or "buy-out", simply a partial farm-out and that is a totally different beast and not comparable in the slightest; not least because a farm-in partner will not be the operator of the assets and a "non operator" stake is not valued any where nearly as highly as the operator's stake. I have given you my opinion but, ho hum, take it or leave it, ultimately only time will tell; I know where my money lies.

The Ntorya Fan Basin area (the area that relates to the 25 Year Development License application) is only a part of the original Ruvuma Exploration area but with the exception of Likonde is the only area where Aminex has put down any drills. Outside of the Appraisal area they also had a license for the Ruvuma Exploration area where, so far, little if any work has been done to prove up the GIIP estimates. Without seeing the results of the CPR and AEX's own New Basin model it is impossible to see precisely how these areas are related. AEX claim that the Appraisal area and the Exploration area are intrinsically connected and therefore are applying to renegotiate one new overall License coverig the whole area. How Eclipse can farm-in to an area which does not have a license of it's own is difficult to see; UNLESS of course the "license" is the long awaited 25 year Development License. The fact that the "farm-out" conversation is even taking place leads me to believe that the Dev License is now a formality. However to answer your question, the area outside of the development area is worth next to nothing in my view; there has been next to no exploration activity in the area and it is probably, what, 5 years minimum before anything found ther would be "monetised"? The only exception may be the areas very close to the Fan Basin; if you accept AEX's assertion that the areas are all connected then after the Dev area has been completed where will AEX and partners go next? These areas may have a slightly bigger relative value. However it seems pretty certain that after the Dev License area AEX will be looking to concentrate on Nyuni and South Kiliwani for the next stage of development and, by a process of elimination, the wider Ruvuma areas are some way down the priority list when it comes to the Ruvuma partners or the TPDC list for future development. The only exception to this might be OIL!! If they realistcally believe that somewhere in the larger Ruvuma Basin there are realistc prospects for Oil then I could see this becoming a dveloment priority and they could then increase in focus and in value. I am looking forward to AEX tellign us that they are looing to drill in Loikonde or Namisange (where I believe the Oil is). Until then the areas outside of Ntorya Fan Basin are worth bugger all...... they are a liability not an asset coming as they do with drilling obligations, development and infrastructure cost, long term time to market issues and no guarantee of success.

500 million??? $ or � ? And what for? 25%? Nowhere near that figure Steve. We are NOT talking about a Cove sitation, we are looking at a smallish proportion of one particular asset. Post NT3 and 25 Development license the whole Ntorya Fan Basin maybe would be worth $500 million and maybe quite a bit more but would of course depend very much on the various factors; who is paying for the 8" pipeline, what the price the TPDC is paying for the gas, the timelines for adding in NT4, 5, 6 etc and, very much, on the flow rates that we achieve at NT3. Any purchase prior to NT3 and Dev License would not know any of these things (though knowledge of the IO commercialisation study would allow parties to make a valued guess at some of them) and hence any offer prior to these things would come with a considerable discount. If, as AEX have suggested, the farm-in is being chased by Eclipse then AEX is in the box seat and SHOULD be able to negotiate a smaller discount than would be the case if AEX were chasing funding. The question is which is the real state of affairs as this could be the difference between a 60% discount and, say, a 20% discount. Based upon this logic I would suggest that AEX will receive between $50 million and $100 million for the sale of 25%. As an AEX shareholder I will be voting against anything below $75 million - and pro rata for a smaller purchase. That should have a read acroos to Solo's 25% holding and value their assets similarly..... Moreover post NT3 and 25 Dev License that will then rise yet again and then again when Solo finally cash in.

If you say so; I think it will be a lot more than that. MOreover if what you say it true then surely that would suggest that by selling out now we will only get twice today's price....Why would AEX's 25% be priced any differently to Solo's?

Whether the current value is $100 million or not steve, it will certainly be worth more after NT3 and 25 Dev License than it is now and NR has stated taht they will not look to monetise the asset until after Dev License approval; so I think that is exactly what is likely to happen.... The good news is that when AEX farm out we will find out exactly what 5% is worth - today. That should move out Market Capitalisation to a level where it is more reflective of that value.... then you can sell your x% whenever you like. ;0)

"non-material"? That old chestnut eh BD...? Now where have we come across that before?

But it isn't on here (see below) https://www.ichimokutrader.com/ And I rather trust this over British Bulls as it has proven to be pretty good in the past over the medium term

trrime, if I were the holder of that 57 million I would now be waiting for AEX to complete the offloading of some of their Ntorya assets; that will give a lift to Solo's share price, assuming they get fair value for those assets....

There are no capital repayments needed for the Riverfort Loan until November and any further drawdown on it would also have a deferal period before repayments were necessary - hence there is little likelihood that they will be making repayments from dilution. Although that presupposes that they can sell or farm-down Ntorya shortly after the NT3 drill. Which I would exepct should be perfectly possible if the drill goes to plan.

vike your assumption is that (as in AEX's RNS) Eclipse are the drivers of this Farm-out conversation; perhaps the only reason this is happening is because AEX need the money and therefore Eclipse see an opportunity to get some cheap assets (not least as they exert significant influence over those assets). They would not get the as good a deal from Solo who are not in need of the funds...

I can not and would not deny that your hypothesis is certainly possible; however I think that with a sale of AEX Ntorya assets it will mark to market the Solo assets at a level considerably higher than the market curently values them and this should bring about something of a revaluation of Solo. Quite what leevl that will be at will of course depend on the terms of AEX's farm out. We have been told by AEX BoD that NT3 will happen in H2 and I am not going to second guess that - so at the very worst we will ony have to wait 9 mnths and the Dev License should also be released during that period. In the interevening period there should be news on KN1, HH flow rates, Ruvuma license extensions, H1 IPO and drilling and of course over coming weeks and moonths AEX and Solo AGM's, end of year reports etc. So Kejoglo, I will not (nor ever would ) say that Solo is certain to rise and NOTHING ever moves in a straight line BUT on the balance of probability I would expect it to be on an upward trend from now until the year's end.

Agreed reaction; this can only be good news for Solo holders, Patience is key, Solo can afford to wait for the opportune time to sell..... Aminex need the cash because they do not have a Riverfort Loan. As an Aminex holder I am none too pleased at this development and unless AEX need the money they too ought to be resisting a farm out until after NT3 and Dev License approval as NR has long maintained.

Lol no reaction Alice is your bag.... Yes it is reaction and that is very good reason to illustrate why your consoracy theories are so fanciful..... this is anything but a deliberate act on Aminex's part... daily realities reaction. TPDC and the pace of change in Tanzania. We have suffered it for years and it is unlikley to change anytime soon.

Well that is at least imaginative. I will leave you to your conspiracy theories reaction - I prefer to concentrate on the more prosaic. There is little point talking about daily realities with someone that prefers Alice in Wonderland.

So reaction are you seriously suggesting that AEX are deliberately manipulating the newsflow so as to acquire Solo on the cheap? And you think that AEX would risk their relationship with the TPDC and Tanzanian authorities to do that? That they would deliberately delay the KN1 remediation and NT3 drill just to force Solo into a corner? Despite the fact that Solo already have the Riverfort Loan facility in the background? If it wasnt for NR needing his regular buying "fix" Solo would have all the liquidity they need to sit things out and wait for Ntorya developments and would be siting pretty and I doubt that even AEX could foresee the HH purchase coming. Indeed if anyone is suffereing from this delay it is AEX and their shareholders; their cash requirements are far greater than Solo's.....

yes John trrime is exactly right and the MM's are going to wiggle the price up and down to stimulate the trade volumes and try and genertae some buying interest and to dissipate that 57 million share overhang as quickly as possible

reaction I am not dismissive of your opinion, simply voicing the explanation that the operator themselves has given on innumerable occassions. I also wish it was otherwise but I recognise that whatever you or I think it is NOT going to change and continually bleating one wit the same old diatribe is not going to change a thing. Is simply promotes and perpetuates a overiding malaise of negativity and exacerbates the sp decline. I would rather not do that. But carry on reaction, knock yourself out.... but when you are moaning and ******** about the sp continuing to decline just have a look in the mirror.

And that assertion is bloody nonsense! Solo certainly would have had to dilute to buy HH as you very well know..... Moreover tey could have avoided that by NOT buying HH and using the Riverfort loan facility to bridge the gap. But it is easier to focus on blaming the operator rather than addressing the findamental issue..... KN1 remediation wouldn't solve that problem. NR just cannot stop spending shareholders assets before they have been optimally developed.

And as ypu agreed (I think ) yesterday trrime AEX are NOT going to come out and say "the reason that we have made no progress on KN1 is because the TPDC are dragging their feet and do not see it as a priority"..... As this will destroy their relationship with the TPDC - as both Orca and M&P know, very well, to their cost!