Member Info for CrustyPete

�150 - 200 million?! Lovely idea but cloud cuckoo land, steve I am afraid... as I said earlier the Swala offer for 40% of Orca's Mtarwa assets provides read across of $525 million for the whole of Ntorya and that is at a full 2P valuation; which (in theory) means they have to be producing assets. The development licensee could be sufficient to make these 2P assets but that I suppose depends on which side of the table you are sitting.

A BUY order in the background methinks Drewky...... MM's need some stock to fill it. Which should mean that last week's overhanging sell order has dried up. Also in past years we have seen a few buyers ahead fo the EOY report and AGM; let's hope this time around they have reason to hold on to the stock after the event...

I would like to agree with yoou JD and would be interested to hear what the BoD's opinion of that would be. Let's hope we get the opportunity to ask them at the AGM; hopefully by then (though unlikely methinks) we will have been given a "marker" by Aminex.... Even the recent Orca / SWALA deal values it at circa $125 million (post Development License) so I am keen to see how confident the BoD are in their own deal making prowess? In truth my personal view it that it is not their strong suit.... Time will tell

I am deliberately not making assumptions about the AEX Farm-Out CP, after all there is no guarantee that it will take place before the Development License approval and if that is the case, no reason to assume that AEX farm-out will occur before Solo's (if at all...) I would lie to think that Solo will wait until after C1 drill but if there is any delay to that drill beyond 2018 I doubt that Solo will be in a position to choose. Helium1 IPO will give them a possible opportunity to raise some cash but, short of a placing/ offer before then how would Solo pay for C1, HH and keep the lights on and repay their Riverfort obligations? I think that to wait for C1 for farm - out will require C1 to be in Q3 or early Q4 at the latest?

So I would be interested to understand from those keen of a complete sale what they would be prepaerd to accept? So what's the lowest acceptable figure $50 million? $100 million? Or would you be happy with the Solo BoD accepting a $30 million offer? Nothing is likely to happen before the Development License approval and that might be some time yet but would you be happy to sell out before the C1 drill and outcome? Even if that struck Oil? Will HH flow testing create enough buying interest to get through the 57 million overhang? What would you consider a good outcome on the flow test results? Will you all be selling out after the results?

An exiting few months or an exciting few months willow? ;0) It could be both !

So ditto CP, rather than as jonesey put it on the AEX BB "but you saw the rats leave very quickly when the holes appeared "... I deserted the Solo ship because as I saw it NR completely stiffed the shareholders by not honouring the spirit of the EGM outcome and moreover by unnecessarily diluting Solo yet again at an innappropriate time Had he not done so i would have remained as positive as before. I too lost some money on those I sold but not as much as I would have done had I still been holding them. We have seen many times what happens to placing shares after a Solo dilution and it tends to put a lid on any shareprice rise for some considerable period (as trrime has been highligting recently). I am also with CP on the AEX figures and KN1; all the bad news is out there and the sp reflects it. What possibly can be said negatively that the market has not already discounted? No-one is expecting a spud date for NT3 any time soon, no-one is expecting news on KN1 remediation any time soon, no-one is expecting a good deal on the farm-out and no-one is expecting license extensions or Develpoment Licence approval anytime soon..... So if we get any of the above the market will have a pleasant surpise and will rise accordingly. The KN1 remediation Operation and Compression plan is awaiting TPDC sign off, NT3 is awaiting the end of the tender process to secure a rig which are not as readily availble as the message boards seem to believe. I believe we will get a very fair offer from Eclipse and I DO expect the License extensions to be approved soon. The only one of the above things which will be a long time coming in my view is the 25 yr Development License approval. Any of the others could be announced at virtually any time; though it is my view (having been to a few) that the BoD will keep their powder dry for the AGM on some of these things.... as they have done in the past.

I would not argue but every AEX shareholder needs to have their own understanding if what "fair value" is so that they can formulate their on opinion of whether the Eclipse offer is one worth accepting or not.... I have my own view of what I would accept and what I wouldn't and it is a lot less than $150 million for 25% but that I believe to be the high water mark. I will be gauging any offer against that.

$150 million is my own estmate of max value of Solo's 25% based on the recent Swala / Orca farm in and assuming that the NT3 drill increases the Contingent Reserves figure by a 10% percent (highly likely) and we then get the 25 year Development License. There is of course another scenario which includes the chances of finding huge extra quantities of gas in the deeper targets and maybe even Oil but for the purposes of this valuation I am choosing to exclude these. They could of course add considerably to that $150 million figure....

I do think that the NT3 drill will take this above 20p and the eventual farm out could take it a lot further dependent on the scale and price of the deal. $150 million for all 25% and a "special dividend" and we could see another spike at 25p

It would depend on what the news was..... If it wnet to that price purely on the basis of an AEX RNS then yes I would sell at 8p but only with a view to getting back in again at a later date. I will be here for the NT3 drill the Development License and the farm out (Solo's). What I do between these events I cannot be too sure but on the basis of past events it would be sensible to get out on the spikes dont you agree?

"crusty unlike you im not obsessed get a life" That's rich coming from you Lol! But okay enough's enough.

"Crusty I know what is happening" really trrime?! You know what is happening? Is this because NR has told you so, yet again? So when you are proven wrong you will be eating humble pie? :0)

When the first RNS came out regarding the "farm in" my initial impression was very similar. A back's against the wall transaction needed by the AEX BoD because they haven't got the proverbial "pot to **** in" etc, etc.... I have since had time to reflect on this and now believe that we are likley to get a very fair deal,not a generous one but a fair one. We alreday have a benchmark set by the Bowleven deal which effectively valued Ruvuma at �300k per percentage point. Since then we have had a 12 fold increase in GIIP and 11 fold in Contingent Resources (and that is only Ntorya). In addition we are now only a stone's throw from the 25 Development License and, ironically, the fact that Eclipse are lookig to farm-in just goes to prove it. Consequently I would be expecting at least a 12 fold increase in the previous "benchmark" of $300k ppp. So a figure of $3.6 million and then a bit because of the immediacy of the Dev License.... Moreover any less than this and we shareholders will be able to vote it down, which neither the BoD nor Eclipse will want to happen and therefore is a risk that they would not be willing to take.

trrime for goodness sake when Eclipse buy in to the Ruvuma License they are NOT buying more of Aminex they are simply buying into the license, in the same way that Solo have bought into that license, As CP syas Solo have 25% of that license but they do NOT own any part of Aminex. The two things are totally separate.....

See extract from Bowleven farm-out RNS 19th November 2015... very interesting!! "Aminex is pleased to announce that it has reached an agreement with Bowleven plc ("Bowleven"......, for a 50% gross interest. Under an inter-conditional agreement with its existing joint venture partner Solo Oil plc ("Solo"), the farm out terms for the Ruvuma PSA will be shared proportionately by Aminex and Solo (the "Solo Agreement")."

An interesting precedent though: I suggest that all of you go and look at the terms of the Bowleven farm-in of 19th November 2015. In that deal Bowleven was buying 50% of Ruvuma and 25% of Kiliwani. If you look at the terms of the farm in on completion, whilst AEX conceded all 25% of it own shareholder in Kiliwani, for Ruvuma AEX were to hold 37.5% and Solo 12.5% which goes to show that the farm-in was "pro rata" with both AEX and Solo being equally diluted and for which Solo got a pro rata share of the "$10m free carry that Bowleven were offering as part of the deal. See below. " Under the Solo Agreement, Solo will receive a 25% share of the net carry of $10 million and will be entitled to 25% of the contingent bonuses. The net effective value to Aminex of the transaction will be $24.375 million." Maybe, just maybe any farm-out of Ruvuma (under the above "Solo agreement") WILL involve Solo on a "pro rata" basis....?

But CP for the same reasons that NR is deliberately waiting for Dev License and (maybe) NT3 drill before monetising the asset so too should JB surely. We are "fully funded" for NT3 drill and EPS is self funding after connection. So what exactly do AEX need money for that cannot wait until after NT3 drill? There will be some egg on the BoD faces if they cannot answer the "why now?" question without admitting that it is because they have f***ed up.... And as we are not going to get the farm-out resolved before the AGM it should be an interesting meeting.

Well we can only hope trrime that of you are right the AEX shareholders will vote it down. I think Majedie could be relied upon to do so.... I have my own opinions of what is acceptable and what we will get offered (and the reasons why) which I made clear yesterday on the AEX BB (as did CP and others) . I am not going to repeat tham here.

Fair point CP..... you know my view. An EPS stratgey that requires NT1,2 & 3 to make it commercial? Makes sense that you know the state of play before you commit to anything....