Member Info for CrustyPete

Accepted Drewky - case closed. Check your email in a short while.

And that, for those that think I have some hidden agenda, was primarily the purpose of my posting those articles; secondly only that I thought they were interesting and revealing. But ho hum - you live and learn....

Well as it happens Kev, I too am happy with my holding; indeed if I wasn't skint I would be adding more. But hey never mind my holding is probably more than many would consider sensible anyway. ;0) But this article and many like them do highlight our overexposure to one jurisdiction.... if Eclipse were to buy us out of a sizeable portion of Ruvuma - at a fair price of course - I would not be too unhappy. Ot might allow us to diversfy away from our 100% reliance on Tanzania, which I have long considered a good thing. We will still have huge concentration risk but selling off an asset close to optimal development potential is not a bad thing - as long as we are geting a fair price for it. We will still have tremendous upside in Nyuni and, to a lesser extent, Kiliwani. Let's see the colour of their money.

Well Drewky you may have a point though as I said below the first article was NOT just about one Demonstration, for goodness sake - read it again. The headline was probably a little thoughtless but hardly warrants conspiracy theories....

Yes CH I did start the thread, on this BB at least, so you really should check your facts before you cast such (false) aspersions - that way you might avoid the "personal abuse". Otherwise those that throw stones shouldn't live in glass houses; as your accusations are just as much "personal abuse" as any low grade name calling. Which, by the way was meant to be tongue in cheek. Moreover, if you had actually taken the time to read it, the original articla talks about a lot more than the demonstration on Thursday...

CH are you seriously suggesting that I have posted these things because I am some sort of "doomster"...?! If so you really need to take a visit to your local "shrink" you are evidently suffering from some form of advanced paranoia :0) The reason that I posted then is to stimulate some sort of conversation around this and the timing has got f**k all to do with AEX's rise in sp you berk it is because today that the articles have only just been published. Do you not have the capacity to work out that is purely a coincidence? Or maybe you think that the anti AEX conspiracy extends to the Scottish and Tanzanian press too.....? Come on CH get real.

Well the Foriegn Office seem to think there is something in it..... http://www.thecitizen.co.tz/News/FCO-travel-warning-Mange-Kimambi-Protests/1840386-4519974-s0g5qfz/index.html

A few words of caution. http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16178956.Magufuli_tightens_grip_on_power_as_Tanzanians_fear_for_the_future/ thanks to sandlab at ADVFN

I would be expecting us to have a drill down in nearshore Nyuni or Kiliwani South before the end of 2019, though how long that will take to plug in to Songo Songo is anyone's guess. But, producing or not, it will do much to add to our NAV growth potential as I cannot see us doing much outside of Ntorya Development License area before completion of NT8, particularly if they expect to find Oil within this area. Hence the only way of dramatically increasing NAV within AEX's Tanzanian concessions will be in Nyuni / Kilwani. Plenty to look forward to.

A very good pojnt CP. If we were to farm out ahead of a Development License it would affect the "valuation" considerably; what would be the NAV per share if we sell half of the crown jewels off? Well depends what we get for them of course... but the "spread" on that figure is a wide one. And the perversity is that whilst the farm-out might adversely affect the NAV it might well have a dramatic positive affect on the sp.... Funny old world eh?

Look a little closer fjones and you will see that, in fact many of thsoie reported BUYS are SELLS. The real spread is 3.00 - 3.10p and the only BUYS are at 3,09, 3.08 and 3.07p Oh and to answer your question Leafless - what would Shore Capital value it at now? How about Investec? The subsequent Investec analysis puts the Shore Capital figure into perspective somewhat. The Shore Capital figure being grossly optimistic. Though the Investec figure discounted it by 50% because of the lack of clarity on the "route to market"; te Developmet License would add considerably to correcting that "discount" but definitley NOT for the whole 1.87 TCF GIIP figure and probably not for the 764 BCF 2C figure (future 2P) until further drillig completed. And do remebre that the 1.87 TCF figure for Ntorya GIIP is NOT for new assets, conjured out of thin air, it is actually an upgraded figure for what were previously P10 assets. So the Shore Capital figure - suitably optimistic - about 14p. Investec 9p. And neither figure will have any relevance once we start Drilling Chickumbi 1..... particularly when AEX announce that we will be drilling for Oil. :0)

Actually the Chikumbi Oil location is a long way away from NT3.....

What at 3.10p? Not unless they were buying at a discount (which is very possible if they were acting as underwriter)..... If so only another 56 million to go!! End of June then before we get a rise?! ;0)

�28 k of course !! :0(

And a far bigger �8k sale.... I didnt see that one going through... Blimey. Just as well as there were a few buyers around and AEX was up today otherwise that would have been a big downer.

Actually irish that 750,000 at 2.72 is a late reported BUY. I even know who bought them! ;0)

No, not in my view; what possibly will comeout with the EOY report that would justofy a rise to that level? Or keep us there after the "news" is out. Only Development License approval and / or a huge farm-out offer from Eclipse and I would put a lot of money on us NOT getting either of those this week..... KN1 remediation news and/ or license extensions yes but will eiter or both of those take us to 4p and above? Not in my opinion. Though both of those would be extremely posiitve, doing a lot to de-risk the current situation and provide good reason for improved confidence.

I think that might have been one half of an earlier back to back irish (765,000)..... take those two trades out of the reckoning today and the BUY to SELL ratio would have been sufficient to justify an 11% rise; 4.6 million vs 3.2 million doesn't. That said we do not know what is in the background.

I take it back! Lots of volume in the last 30 - 45 minutes. Let's hope for more in the morning.....

Well I wouldn't get too carried away, the volumes are not significant and don;t really justify a rise of these proportions - not a sustainable one anyway; if this modest rise prompts some modest selling you could see it fall back a bit yet.