Member Info for CrustyPete

For you BG anything.

So you want to know what these "permissions are. Sorry not quite the correct term BG for "permissions" please read "approvals". What "approvals"? The ones referred to on the RNS of the 29th August. See below.

"The Company initially plans to repair a faulty valve during the current quarter, which is expected to allow for gas to flow from the well and evaluate operational parameters at the reservoir and gas processing facility. Pending approvals, the Company will then proceed to perforate a lower untested and potentially gas bearing section of the reservoir system which is anticipated to occur during the fourth quarter with the intent to bring the well back to full time production."

Can you see the small phrase "Pending approvals".....?

Well as I have been suggesting for months and was confirmed at the EGM these "approvals" are still "pending".

Is that clear enough for you?

You say BG " kinds of contradicts EGM presentation slide 17 (" perforation of lower zone Progressing")". Well I suppose that depends upon what your interpretation of the word "progressing" means BG....?

And no doubt your interpretation will be better than mine, so I won't waste any time giving you my version.

"Indeed traders will trade." Maybe CP but, if so it must surely have been day traders that caused the sp rise ahead of and on the day of the EGM.

Net effect of the Farm-Out vote on the sp? = Zero.

Tanzania you said on Friday "Worth reminding everyone that much maligned Drewky forecast of today's outcome....".

It's a pity he forgot to forecast what would happen today. But, oh silly me, that might have prompted people to sell and not to buy and certainly would have been perceived as "negative".

Well whether it is $250k, $500k or $1m do AEX have any cash at the bank to cover it? I wonder what guesses the posters here will come up with....?

Anyway it doesn't matter because now we have voted in favour of the Farm-Out it will be complete by the end of the month and then have $3 m in the bank and even if not that, the TPDC will relieve us of their spurious claim and start paying our invoices again.

No doubt someone will argue the toss and tell me that I am making it all up. So I will say goodnight before you even start....! :0)

No there is no imminent sign of KN1 producing anytime soon. They have not got the permissions they need for complete the workover and there are no O&G service companies currently operating in Tanzania (no Schlumberger no Haliburton, no-one) simply because no new operational activity has occurred there since NT2 - from anyone. The reason that the valve took so long to fix was that it took Schlumberger nearly three months to get the necessary equipment shipped in from Angola of all places.

And I sincerely hope your confidence it well founded Drewky. I hope also it happens quickly too because we all know what happens here if we have to wait for news....

I remain a "hold".

And yes you are right CP, of course, regarding TPDC versus Govt approval. Until Magafuli, by the way, Govt approval was not necessary (just a formality) for farm-out approval or license extension; only recently has that become a necessity and since that time there haven't been any. Interesting eh?

GLA.

Not the only thing CP. TPDC approval of course and the Orca / Swala Farm-Out has yet to be approved after, what? 12 months? Also, interestingly, we need Solo approval (not that it is likely to be in doubt) and a couple of other things too....

The point being Drewky that the "Vote" never was a barrier.... I haven't changed my view. I have always said that the EGM would be later than the BoD have suggested and it was. I am simply saying that when it comes to knowledge of the motivations of the TPDC and Tanzanian Energy Minister I would rather trust the words of our BoD than the pure conjecture of some (indeed any) of the posters.

BG, you can argue the toss about M&P, Orca anyone you like but they are in a position to increase gas production sooner than Aminex can in Q2 2020. The point that you miss is that you are picking an argument with the wrong person; what I am relaying, honestly and openly, to you is not my "opinion" or my "argument" simply my reports on what was stated at the EGM.

Whether what you or I may or may not believe to be the case, or even pertinent is not relevant. I am simply re-stating what was said on Friday. Now as Drewky said there have been many occasions in the past when what the BoD have said has not been proven in reality but, in this case, their position seems to me to be based on firm evidence and first hand experience. The fact is that the last time there was any operational activity in Tanzania was NT2 and no-one has had a license extension since 2017 - all due to the political situation in Tanzania. That is not going to change because of our little vote.

When asked whether we would get the License Extension before March 31st after explaining all that I have just summarised (everyone in Tanzania is waiting for License extensions due to the political situation) all JB could say was I (words to the effect of) "we were expecting it in the summer and then in September, then October, November and December; when will we get it? We really would not like to say......"

And yes BG that is my last word on the subject. You can chew it over as much as you like but I have said all I am going to say; whether you accept that as an honest and open portrayal of what was said is entirely up to you and the answer seems obvious; so I will leave you to it.

It only needs a GSA BG. And by the same token if the TPDC / Govt can extend a License they can agree terms for a GSA...

Good bye

My final word on this BG, Tanzania et al. "Positive", "negative" call it what you like. I really don't care if you believe what I have to say or not. You carry on dreaming. I on the other hand would prefer to take my lead from the "horses mouth" - from the utterances of our own BoD.

If you prefer your own interpretation feel free - I know you will anyway. There is a lot more I could share with you too but, as you have already made up your own minds, I won't waste my time or my energy.

Good bye.

"Considering you were one of the major parties saying TPDC were effectively forcing our position, that's sounds very much like a change of view."

Yes Drewky that would be a very fair statement.

As you rightly say " 100% in the ministers hands as to when he's ready. " just as it has been for the last 12 plus months. For us and many others. He hasn't chosen to make that move yet and there is no greater reason for his doing so now than three months ago. Some of whom are actually producing and therefore have a lot more leverage than us....

Sorry but I am out with friends and really need to concentrate on them for the rest of the afternoon.

Good bye all.

Sorry but both Orca and M&P could provide almost immediate increase in supply and Dodsal not too far behind. Plus Magafuli has been pressuring Statoil to initiate development on the LNG developments and associated drilling which is a big "vanity" project for Magafuli and they have effectively said "not without our license extension" and yet theys till haven't got theirs.

I am NOT missing the point BG, I am just saying that according to the BoD at EGM these things are NOT linked and just because we have voted positively for the Farm-Out will have NO impact on the when we get the License extended. Indeec the factors that you raised above were and are just as important in November 2018, August 2018 as they are in January 2019 and March 2019 but our vote will not influence that decision one iota...

You can argue the contrary until you are blue in the face BG but it will make no difference.

I suggest that if you are not prepared to accept that from me you email JB and ask him - or better still, you actually turn up for the next AGM and hear it for yourself.

So based on your logic "I think now the vote is out of the way the Mtwara licence will follow in short order...." do you think that Shell, Statoil, Dodsall, Orca and M&P will get their License extension now that AEX have approved the Farm-Out?! No, of course not!

The reason for the delay in all of these License extensions is the same for all parties and has nothing whatsoever to do with the AEX Farm-out; not even AEX's. Consequently the farm out decision will make not the slightest difference to the timing of ours or anybody else's license extension... That was made absolutely clear on Friday.

Everybody is on the same boat, vote or no vote.

That came up in the Q&A sessions matherdj but JB could not / would not give details; the point being that the impression that I had previously had was that a number of staff would "transfer" from AEX to APT after the Farm-Out but after JB's comments I now think it more of a "sharing" of resources and expertise rather than a "transfer"....

Hope that helps?

Anyway gents I am out for the day so will leave you all to it.

Here's hoping that those predicting a License Extension on the back of the vote are right and we see a continued sp rise this week.....

Anyway ladies and gents I have to be off now.

Til the next time, GLA.

Yes they did mention it but simply to claim that they had done all within their power to have it removed and had pursued nearly all available "official" channels and also lot of "unofficial" ones too. They made it clear that as far as they are concerned the claim is totally without foundation but getting it removed has proven problematic.

Moreover getting the claim lifted and getting paid for back invoices are related but are two different things.

I asked if, after the Farm-Out we might get it removed, as Orca/Swala had done after their Farm-Out but Jay pointed out that whilst they may have had their claim removed they still haven't had their Farm-Out approved by the TPDC and are only getting paid for "new" gas not the back payments that they are still owed. The inference being that even if we had the claim lifted it may not mean we would get those back payments and we are not currently producing any gas for ongoing invoicing and payment.

And this seems to be a sticking point - because KN1 is "shut in" we are not supplying any gas to the TPDC; if we were producing then we could use that gas production as leverage - if you don't pay us we will turn off the gas (akin to Orca). But as we are not currently producing the TPDC are under no pressure to pay up....a bit of a "chicken and egg" scenario.

But in fact the AEX BoD do not seem to understand the TPDC motivation other than that they will be saving $5.9 million (to the partners) that they would otherwise be paying out .

The claim is seemingly, simply opportunistic; my words not theirs....

Yes CP, hence it is fair to say that the reason for the continued delay to our license extension has nothing to do with any "dependency" on the AEX / APT Farm-Out and therefore will not be hastened simply by our voting it through.

Anyway I will be travelling for the next few hours so I will wish you all a good evening and a fantastic weekend.

Until the next time, goodnight, goodbye and good luck all.

In truth Sir Robert I actually thought it was one of the better AEX meetings that I have attended; though arriving 10 minutes late I totally missed the "vote".

The presentation was good and JB did come across very well. In the Q&A session he answered all of the questions posed, what seemed to me to be, very openly and honestly and in conversation afterwards both he and Keith Phair were polite and professional as always.

That said I think it fair to say that after being once bitten (or even twice or thrice) the last thing that either were going to do was to put timescales on anything; hence I still believe we could be waiting some time for the License Extension as JB made it clear that EVERY O&G entity in Tanzania (including the "majors" Shell, StatOil and even Dodsall) is suffering the same delays and issues with License Extensions and some of those have been waiting longer than us.