Member Info for CrustyPete

Precisely BG. Absolutely illustrates the very points that I have been making since the EGM - indeed makes the precise point that I made only a few days ago...

"... he offered a suggestion that it would require the respective minister to closely involve the President on every step towards any decision that he/she intends to take so that priorities of the two offices align".

But of course none of this will apply to AEX now that we have voted for the License extension; we are totally immune from such political shenanigans ;0)

Well you are quitexwiyhin your rights to interpret the "black and white" as you wish Drewky but all those at the EGM were told there are no approvals and after having explained the background (3 months getting parts no approvals) and before moving on to the next slide Jay's precise words were - "so that's Kiliwani, we are working on it....."

I won't be holding my breath.

In summary it is in AEX's interests keep this on the back burner until AEX has guarantee of future source of cash (invoice payments, or Farm-Out monies) particularly as there is no guarantee of success.

Just my opinion? Well unlike you Drewky, I am not going to attempt to add validity to these assertions by attributing them to some spurious unnamed source (because without providing the source any attribution is worthless) but I will say that they are more than simply my own opinions.

Anyway I would really like to enjoy my weekend so unless (and until) you are going to continue with your malicious, defamatory accusation or snide insinuations I will leave it at that.

Goodnight and good luck all.

So Drewky just to make it clear I am NOT arguing with you about what the "approvals" may or may not relate to. Why? Well firstly because I am more than happy to concede that you may indeed be right but, far more importantly it because whatever the appprovals are for is an absolute irrelevance. The pertinent section of the RNS is the section that is ALSO in "black and white".

"Pending approvals, the Company will THEN proceed to perforate a lower untested and potentially gas bearing section..."

This clearly indicates that the continuation to "perforate the untested and potentially gas bearing zone" is absolutely contingent on first getting the "pending" approvals, whatever they may or may not be for.

The reality is that they have NOT got those pending approvals - that is not my interpretation, that was a stated fact. And yesterday you insinuated that as some low life ramper and untrustworthy poster, I might well be making it up. Well I am sorry but I am NOT.

I asked you a rhetorical question earlier which so far, you have not even attempted to answer; "explain why, if the company has more than sufficient cash to proceed with the remediation work and don't need any approvals to do so, why oh why, have they not done so long before now?"

Why a rhetorical question? Well because I can give you the answers.

1) AEX currently has very little cash and cannot be sure when the next tranche of cash is going to arrive. They are contingent on deliveries that are beyond the BoD's control.

2) Because of the lack of operational activity in Tanzania over the last two years there are no service companies nor any equipment in the country and consequently getting resource and equipment into the country is unusually expensive right now.

3) Most importantly even if they did do the "soaking" and perforation now, without the approvals in place they run the risk of having to wait months before being able to "connect" to the GPP; if so they would have to "shut-in" the well yet again. This would inevitably come with increase risks; the well would fill with water, they may run the risk of damage to the bore and such things as the valve sticking may reoccur. Hence they could have to pay to do this all over again at some future point.

4) Because even if they did all of the above and connected to the GPP with the TPDC claim hanging over their head there is still no guarantee that they would get paid for any gas that they produce nor get paid on outstanding invoices.

5) The very fact that KN1 is not producing is about the only piece of leverage that AEX still have. JB has stated in the past that if they had there own way they might well have abandoned it by now but that (you would never know it) the TPDC are keen for it to produce anything as long as it is the minimum to keep Songo Songo GPP operating (July AGM)

In summary it is in AEX's interests keep this on the back burner until AEX has guarantee of future source of cash (invoice payments, o

Yes Drewky there's a surprise....

Sorry that quote was from 29th August not 8th of August.....

So Drewky where is your source of information then? I am not accusing you of lying, despite the fact that you seem to be insinuating that I am but I have named my source of information, the EGM. And whilst you might give your source total credibility at least give us the opportunity to assess it's credibility for ourselves.

Otherwise your assertions could easily be construed as the desperate actions of an inveterate "ramper" simply trying to reverse the post EGM sp decline....

Not an accusation I would normally make but as you cannot seem to avoid similar nonsense I remember the old adage, if you can't beat 'em join 'em...

You are just full of it Drewky.

So let's have a few home truths here.

Firstly and most importantly my reports of what were said at the EGM are NOT my "opinion" they are reported statements from the BoD during their presentation and Q&A session. Now it may be inconvenient for you that their words do not support your version of reality Drewky but I am simply repeating them. If you choose not to believe me then that is up to you, I cannot help that but at least I have named my sources; which is more than you have done.

You ask rhetorically "Just where has all this noise suddenly appeared from in the last 24hours?" well as I said earlier it was started by the question from Tanzania. Why has it continued since then? Because of your bigoted insinuations that , yet again, there was some hidden agenda - that exists only in your warped, self obsessed imagination.

"Oh yes nobody anywhere to be seen during the 20% rise into the EGM vote last week. " Lol, total garbage - you will see that I was posting consistently both before and after the EGM - when I have not done so it is purely because I have had no access.

"Its not so long ago (weeks) when some here were accusing the government of strangling the company into the farm-out over the licence." You have made that same assertion a few days ago and I have answered it then. I admit that my opinion has changed.

As for incompetence? Maybe a bit strong but I think that would still be a fair allegation in the BoD's protracted and seemingly confused strategy for remediation of Kiliwani that, in a large part, has put us in our current predicament.

You also claim that " He has it on good authority that there has never been a need for permission to carry out the physical remediation works associated with Kiliwani "

So Drewky if there has never been any need for such approvals for operational work

Please explain why, if the company has more than sufficient cash to proceed with the remediation work and don't need any approvals to do so, WHY OH WHY have they not done so long before now?

Let me give you a clue.

The Company posted the following on 8th August 2018 "Pending approvals, the Company will then proceed to perforate a lower untested and potentially gas bearing section of the reservoir system which is anticipated to occur during the fourth quarter with the intent to bring the well back to full time production"

As was stated at the EGM and NOT my opinion Drewky those "approvals" are still "pending" and whatever those approvals are for, we are still "waiting to proceed to perforate a lower untested section and potentially.... etc" ! And before we can do that we have as you quite rightly stated we need to remove all the water, a process that has NOT started yet.

So please Drewky yet again I ask. Exactly what Operational work is currently ongoing....?

I will take it that if you cannot give a meaningful answer it is because you really don't have a clue....

Well we won't be doing anything to bridge that gap in 2019 that's for sure. perhaps if that was such an incentive for the Minister in question he might have thought about that and approved our license extension in time to allow for a December C1 spud, but he didn't. perhaps is the Ruvuma Partners were aware of the need to vote the Farm-Out through before the License extension was approved and they could spud C1 they should have had that EGM vote in September as was originally planned....?

Drewky says: - "Just to confirm once again NO approvals for the operational work on Kiliwani are required and that work is ongoing. Soak fluids perforate"

And Just to confirm once again, that is of course according to Drewky himself and his unsubstantiated "sources". That was not what was stated at the EGM.

Just to confirm, perhaps you, or your source, could tell us exactly what "work" is ongoing? Soaking? Perforation? What exactly?

"BTW I heard the other day that the board were being very professional and it came across from the writer that he was willing to place his trust in them having continually shown distrust since the AGM. It now appears that has been a change of tune again. Has the wind changed direction ;0))"

What the hell are you on about? You fail to mention that I did in fact say that it was more the TPDC and the Tanzanian Govt and their timescales that I had a distrust of but of course that wouldn't suit your one eyed interpretation would it? You have an amazing knack of reading more into things than is really there - yet more proof (if any were needed) of your confirmation bias Drewky? I have not suggested any change of mind. It was Tanzania that wanted to drag up history "Out of interest, if we had done 'a deal for ourselves' as a Placing, how much would that call have been for ?"

I have simply tried to illustrate that his "pointed" question ignores the reality of nearly two years of deteriorating circumstances that stand between then and now.

Did you miss my quote "Well to be fair to the Management team if the TPDC refuse to provide you with the approvals necessary to remediate the well there is bugger all that any BoD could have, or indeed still can, do about it..." Or did this statement simply not meet with your version of reality? :0))

And moreover Drewky our KN1 issues are not a thing of the past they are very much of the present; or had you missed that too?

Dear oh dear. Thank god it's the weekend.

" absolutely think that think was a major contributor to the change in "strategy""

Indeed those that were at the ASGM in July would have heard JB say as much.... "we could not foresee what would happen with KN1" were his words. What he did not fully explain was why they still had not managed to do anything about it.

Sorry but must love you and leave you. Have a great weekend all.

I would agree to a point BG and of course that led to the deferment of the back to back drill; but of course by the time of the 2017 AGM the NT2 drill had already been completed and the results known. That in itself did not stop the AEX BoD coming out with the "fully funded for C1 statement and the "self funding" claim for the Ntorya development.

Yes the CPR may have made a difference but also by then we had also already stopped producing an income from KN1 - I absolutely think that think was a major contributor to the change in "strategy"

The key to this is and always has been our Achilles Heel - KN1. Had this still been producing we would not be in our current predicament. Why this was not resolved in 2017 has never been fully explained to my satisfaction. And now the idea of returning this to production any time soon is a mere pipedream.... With gas flowing we would have had some leverage but not any longer; other than the long term gas supply shortfall and that hasn't been sufficiently persuasive thus far.

That might be one interpretation; another might be that because of the impending gas "shortfall" Magafuli has told the Energy Minister to pull his finger out...? It may have nothing whatsoever to do with out vote irrespective of who's extension comes first.

I would expect to see a series of approvals in close succession; in precisely what order I would not like to predict. At the EGM JB said he "hoped" the AEX extension would be in the first group....

Something that many seem to forget was that the original plan (as explained to the audience at the 2017 AGM) was that the Ntorya wells would be "self funding" after C1. That is, drill C1 (NT3), await production from NT1,2 & 3 and then use that income to fund NT4, income from NT4 to fund 5 etc....All the time having KN1 incomes coming in to keep the lights one and add to the development kitty.

So after the costs of the first drill ( It was anticipated that TPDC or an other party (G.E / Hughes was mooted ) would fund / construct the pipeline) and maybe seismics there would be no need for a subsequent raise.... However this would have meant that there would have been a long wait between drills.

Moreover since then KN1 has "dried up" and we no longer have any income so how would we have kept the lights on before the C1 drill and then between subsequent drills.

So Tanzania the question is no longer relevant as the circumstances that now exist are majorly different than they were in 2017 when we were still in apposition to have raised the money. I suggest that if not for the endless delays in remediating KN1 we might well still have been in a position to "go it alone". Alas that is no longer even a remore possibility.

And who managed and oversaw that deterioration? Well to be fair to the Managment team if the TPDC refuse to provide you with the approvals necessary to remediate the well there is bugger all that any BoD could have, or indeed still can, do about it...

The reason that the Government has not issued us our license extension yet has got bugger all to do with our recent Farm-Out vote. I would bet you anything you like that were or are not even aware that we were having one!

I suppose the reason that Statoil , Shell Dodsall and others are waiting for their license extension is also because the govt are waiting for our vote before completion?!

No, the reason that ALL entities are still waiting is because of total intransigence on the part of the Energy Minister; who will not commit to anything lest he upsets Magafuli and pays the price in the long term. The licenses will be approved when Magafuli instructs him to approve them....

All in my opinion of course.

Just one final.point / question Drewky. What exactly are they "progressing"with then? They contracted Schlumberger for the Valve replacement and it took three months to get the necessarycequipment into the country from Angola. So what exactly are they working on right now? Operational activity or just working on getting the approvals...?

If operational do they have a service company contracted? Equipment on site? Any indications? Because all jnducations atcthe EGM were "not"

Only based on what you can see CP. Maybe an overhanging sell order in the background? Any one of many options could cause that.

Anyway one and all, will be busy over next few days and weekend.

Will hopefully find time to pop in and out.

Good luck all.

Oh an Drewky those waiting for license extensions are not exclusively in offshore and LNG..... look at those closer to home. Orca M&P, Dodsal etc....