Member Info for CrustyPete

Pedantic? I would have been more than happy to let it ride Drewky but for Edgar's assertion "I said free carry and mean it...." Well you may mean it Edgar but that does not mean that you are right.

It is only "free carry" if the sum paid by the farm in partner more than covers ALL historic costs associated with the purchase and development of the license or asset born by the farm-out partner. Manifestly, $5 million does not do that nor even does $5 million and $35 million of credit.

Edgar, you say "Yes, I said free carry and mean it..."

In which case you have totally lost your marbles or any sense of reality;0)

I do not have the time to point out the errors of your assertion but there are, I am sure, plenty here that do and will..... Unless of course it is not aligned with their own agendas or interests ;0)

And just to remember that Phil Thompson (also ex Canyon) sold circa 157 million AEX shares on the way to NT2 at a price of, what, an average of 3.5p? Whilst all everyone on LSE BB was shouting "why oh why would he be selling now?".....

So he got £4.5 million for the sale of his share of Canyon; an asset now valued on AEX balance sheet at £ZERO!

He has probably done better out of AEX than anyone in history....

Fantastic and all thanks to AEX shareholders for voting through the Farm-Out! ;0)

Maybe now's the time for me to review that "Hold" :0)

Well let me first say that the quote you use has been taken totally out of context and furthermore I do not agree with your assessment either of Drewky or of the Company.....

Of Drewky, I would say that I believe him to be an honourable and genuine guy, who knows as much about the company that he is invested in as anyone else. Where he and I differ is in only in our appraisal of the company's short and medium term prospects. We have seen that the company has been hobbled by inaction over the last 2 years since the NT2 drill. A lack of action and an erosion of our capital that has put us "on our knees". Why has this occurred? Well the loss of KN1 income has certainly been the principle contributory issue (still unanswered btw) and the rest is largely beyond the BoD's control; Once upon a time I might have had some sympathy with your "conspiracy" theory - the triumvirate of AEX, Zubairs and the TPDC all conniving to deprive smaller shareholders of their just desserts and protect their own interests. However I no longer believe that. Aminex has not been treated any differently over that two year period than any other O&G entity operating in Tanzania. There has been no new operational activity approved or engaged in for that entire period - and no License Extensions either.

Indeed Shhh, if I had any serious sympathy with your beliefs I would not have been a "Hold" for the last 6 months I would most definitely have been a "Sell" (and better off for it as it turns out!). The truth is I do believe, as Drewky does, that we will get the License Extension and all that will then follow. The only difference is that the climate that operates in Tanzania has not changed markedly from what we have experienced over that 2 year period and I see no reason to suggest that it will any time soon - certainly not just because we have now voted in the Farm-Out....

If there is optimism for the "light at the end of the tunnel" it is the recent development on PAET's increase in supply to the SS GPP, which has taken them an eternity to conclude. This may be an indication that gas "supply" issues are forcing a change of attitude at the TPDC and from within the Tanzanian Energy Ministry. Good news despite the fact that they are effectively a competitor for the TPPDC's gas demands but, thankfully there is more than enough of that to go around and increasingly so as the Govt attempts to deliver on it's ambition of being an "industrialised middle income economy by 2025".

Yes, I am sure that the Zubair's will continue to eat off our plate for a while yet but the plate is still a quite large one,even though we have just given most of it away for next to nothing. But that is because the lunch bill is a large one and we have no room left on our credit card.....

"The Company has been assured by relevant government authorities that the extension is forthcoming and will update the markets once formalised"

Fantastic!!

Let's just hope that it happens before the 31st March...... :0)

Sorry to be rude one and all, I meant to say, good night and good luck.

I will leave you all to your thoughts and dreams x... :0)

"Exactly life is too short give it a f88in rest". Ha, true to form, you cannot let it rest without the last word. Pot and kettle come to mind Drewky. It is about time that you took time and actually said the second thing that comes in to your head. Do you not see the hypocrisy in all of your invective... look in the mirror man. Do you not see that your version of reality is not the only one and certainly not (always) the only correct one? Just look at your "performance" over the last six months; strong buy since the AGM (and long before) and yet since then your predictions about the dates for the EGM license extension and just about anything else has been wayward at best and the sp has declined by 40%. Tell me, honestly, that I have been wrong in expressing a cautious outlook. I still maintain the outlook that I have justifiably maintained for that period.

I am looking forward to the day that I change my long standing opinion and know that, one day, you will be proven correct and the sp will rise appreciably; but you must admit that your position has been wrong for the last six months. I look forward to being proven that my caution is unfounded. I fully recognise and accept that one day it will turn and the sooner the better but just as I have for the last 6 months I still believe that will be further away than you keep advocating.

One day you will be right and no doubt you will milk it for all it's worth. But I have been right for the last 6 months in expressing my reservations. I will probably be back "late to the party" but I would rather that than 6 months too early.

I both hope and expect things to change in all of our favour, just not quite yet :0)

"Then why ask me a stupid pedantic question looking for an answer that you cannot give yourself? "

Dear oh dear, that just about takes the biscuit. Because you are the one so intent on saying that because the presentation states that work on Kiliwani is "progressing" all in the garden must be roses, indeed you have said that you are perfectly happy to take that statement at face value. I am trying and evidently failing to point out that the statement is virtually meaningless without any supporting explanation. Moreover that the "narrative" that supported the presentation would suggest that the "progression" that you refer to is minimal at best for the many reasons I have already related...

But enough, life is too short.

I hope that time proves you to be right. Let's pick up the conversation again in February, or maybe at the next AGM in Dublin in May...

I really could pick holes in every one of those statements Drewky - because yet again you selectively choose only those observations that suit our own preconceptions.

I cannot prove what stage of "progression" we are in and nor can you; that is exactly the point. You claim that you are right on the nature of the approvals, well done, and I happily conceded that last week; whilst pointing it out that the REASON for the approvals is not the issue. The relevant point is that, whatever those "approvals" quoted in the August RNS are for, at the time of the EGM we still did not have them. I have to admit though that things may have changed in the intervening 10 days. And if so I hope that we can start the next stage of work somewhat quicker than we managed the valve correction.

My view is not disruptive, it just happens to be different from yours and many others on this board and that is because I actually attended the EGM which is more than any of the rest of you. I am reporting what was stated there and freely admit that my reports do not completely square with the "official" presentation. But then Drewky you too have attended such events when the "narrative" and delivery around the presentation and the words on the screen have not always totally matched. The words on the screen are, after all, just a summary.

The valve did get repaired Drewky, correct but it did not take days as was officially reported, it took several months; for reasons that I have reported back to you from the EGM. Those reasons are not reported on the FAQ's. Does that mean that I am making that up too? If so what is your explanation for a few days becoming several months? Maybe your "source" will inform us?

I have not commented on the License extension since BG's link first thing today and if today's statement is actually a reflection of a material development then I very much agree that it is good news. Or is it simply a change of style over substance?

I hope and believe the former. That said Drewky, but as you conveniently choose not to highlight, I have always said I believe the License will come, I am just not as optimistic as you have been on the timing of it's arrival. My caution, or as you would rather portray it, negativity, has proven totally justified since the AGM despite you and others trying to undermine the message with personal attacks: I still believe that there is reason for caution and more so after the EGM.

I truly believe we will see conclude positively eventually but who would have predicted that we would still be waiting now over 6 months since the AGM for the Farm-Out and License Extension? Certainly not you Drewky (and not the BoD either by the way) and yet my posts are disruptive? Why because I choose not to agree with your particular version of reality. Your version has been proven to be ridiculously optimistic over the last 6 months. I hope that changes.....

But anyway I will leave you to the last word Drewky as is your wont.

"I guarantee"...well that is a bold statement. I rather doubt that you can guarantee anything tat pertains to O&G in Tanzania. Plus you also say

"but the point is we are in that fluid lifting and perforation stage now" Oh you know that to be the case then? And what stage of fluid lifting are we at? Do we have the equipment on site? Are we using contractors? Or maybe the stage of fluid lifting that we are at is that we are currently looking around to see if, where and when we can source the we equipment and contractors to be able to begin work...?

The word "progressing" covers and awful lot of outcomes.

"We are working on it...."

I won't be holding my breath.

Yes BG and we won't know that until we have completed perforation and done flow tests...

As you say ""and it remains in the best interest of all parties to produce gas as quickly as possible. " And so it has for the last 2 years and yet here we are having not produced gas for well over a year...

Indeed PAET's recent developments are the only positive thing that has happened since NT2. Hence, as I said earlier I consider that development to be very positive.

Regarding pressures BG yes, I agree and your statement chimes with mine from earlier today...

"The downside is that I would suggest that any idea of the SS GPP now reducing gas inlet pressure to accommodate KN1 gas has now receded as it will now be set to PAET's requirements...."

That would make a lot of sense BG and yet unfortunately the TPDC and the operators of SS GPP have yet to "engage" in this process with AEX to any meaningful extent. But, yes, you would have to take my word for that...

So Drewky if as your view has been proven correct and that no approvals for fluid lifting and perforation were ever necessary and we have sufficient cash to continue with the remediation work can you please explain why we haven't completed the work a lot sooner than we have?

Oh and by the way this is not a question aimed directly or specifically at Drewky and I am not trying to be argumentative - I am simply interested in your explanations. It seems that work on these issues has been "progressing" for the last 6 months without any obvious material improvement....

I have already given you my answers but I haven't seen any alternative suggestion proffered.

Oh and by the way this is not a question aimed directly at Drewky - it is open to anyone

BG I was simply, from memory, trying to reprise Drewky's original suggested "list", it is not mine, if I remembered it incorrectly so be it.

And yes Drewky you were correct about the approvals not being for well maintenance, fluid lifting and perforation; everything else remains unproven.

I genuinely hope you are correct about everything else too but past performance and the EGM statements lead me to believe otherwise. I would agree that the FAQ's only came out today and are the most recent statement on the situation but they also leave an awful lot "unsaid".

Sorry Drewky I really do not have time for this now but just to pick it up briefly

The statement from August " "Pending approvals, the Company will THEN proceed to perforate a lower untested and potentially gas bearing section..." still stands.

JB categorically stated at the EGM that they still didn't have the "approvals" - precisely what approvals he did not say (I admit that I assumed them to be for the ongoing remediation work and did not ask him to clarify). So whilst they may not need approvals to do that specific work they need approvals for something and they need to be out of the way before continuing - as per the August RNS. I believe your suggestion may well be correct they need approvals before, testing, to re-connection to GPP and reduction of gas pressures etc

And as I mentioned last week until they can do this there are some very good reasons not to do continue with further work. Yes they may have enough cash to do the work but if that cash is all they have they may choose to hang on to it until they know when the Farm-Out monies or the unpaid invoices will hit their bank account. Plus without reconnection there is the risk of having to shut-in the well again and repeat the remediation works again at a later date.

Bye for now :0)

"So what were they talking about at the EGM then and needing approvals? "

Perhaps just as Drewky has suggested, the approvals, to do with re- connection / re-supply gas to the GPP and reduction of gas pressures etc... But I will have to leave Drewky to pick that up.

Must dash :0)

Absolutely correct Drewky, well done and yes I am very happy.... though let me remind you of my last post on the subject.

"So Drewky just to make it clear I am NOT arguing with you about what the "approvals" may or may not relate to. Why? Well firstly because I am more than happy to concede that you may indeed be right but, far more importantly it because whatever the approvals are for is an absolute irrelevance...."

And also "Pending approvals, the Company will THEN proceed to perforate a lower untested and potentially gas bearing section..." And I have given you very good reasons why the two are connected.

What the FAQ does not state is that we now have the necessary approval required before continuing with the work.

Also very interesting is that they did NOT use the updating of the FAQ's to explain to shareholders just what work they are now "progressing" with ( as referred to in the presentation ).

However just like you I am very much looking forward to hearing that we have got the approvals, that operational activity has resumed and then finally we have got the license extension. The only difference between me and you Drewky is that you believe that now we have voted for the Farm-Out it is all going to happen automatically and very soon, and I don't..... for the sort of reasons that BG's article highlights.

I hope you are right and I am wrong :0)

Anyway good day and good luck all I will be driving for the next few hours.

On the other hand I did view the recent developments with PAET very positively; it shows that the authorities are keen to get additional gas flowing. Though now that PAET are providing gas to the new SS GPP does that mean AEX are now lower priority? Or maybe that has been occupying the TPDC and now that is out of the way they can now start to look at AEX and KN1? The downside is that I would suggest that any idea of the SS GPP now reducing gas inlet pressure to accommodate KN1 gas has now receded as it will now be set to PAET's requirements....

However I stand to be corrected as I have not had too much time to read the small print the new agreement.