Member Info for CrustyPete

Yes, in retrospect, yes I think I may well have done hardnose but I think we agree that the timing might well be proven to have been "advantageous" for some..... though wouldn't that be indicative of "inside" knowledge?! ;0)

Ah John, I am sorry to hear that but maybe you should have heeded my HOLD "recommendation" ;0)

And no, I am not being serious; I would hate to think that anyone acted on mine or anyone's opinion found on this or any other BB..... it's all a load of bo11ocks.

I am confident that you will get it back - though I do think that you will have to be patient.....

Whoa there. Actually one of those trades is a reversal which means that there are in fact only two trades and those two are, in my opinion, "back to back" trades with one sell and one buy with a much reduced spread; maybe just rolling over a T25 trade or similar?

Just my opinion but it would explain why such large trades have not affected the market.

Yes partly my rationale in moving from a HOLD to a BUY BG. Though that was primarily because now we can get on with our operational programme without having to wait for the Tanzanian authorities to turn our income stream back on....

Well they were never likely to raise the money after the License was extended - firstly because that would have then sealed the Farm-out and would be no need for the fund raise in the first place but secondly because the the BoD and our cornerstone investors would then have got far fewer shares for their £1.85 million... everyone likes nice new discounted shares at the bottom of the market don't they?

Oh and should have said "AEX probably would have chosen to abandon the Well"... but this too was long before the idea of perforation of lower zones had been identified - it was whilst "compression" was still the flavour of the month...

Yes Drewky you are right he did say that to me at the AGM and also that whilst cheap it only had a 20-40% chance of success - but by success he was then suggesting that the liquid extraction itself may well lead to the gas flowing again - and at that time there was of course no intention of perforating lower zones..... and let's face it a lot of things have been said over that period few of which have been borne out in reality.

One of the things that has also been stated in that period is that but for the insistence of the TPDC on remediation AEX probably would have chosen to abandon the Well.....(strange therefore that the TPDC have been so slow to get things moving) so whether that has any bearing on your which of the two possibilities you highlight below is the more likely only time will tell methinks

Drewky sorry, I am not being pedantic nor trying to be difficult but you say "The fact that they are attempting the foaming " - do we know that this is a fact? I know that JB has mentioned the use of foam in the past (as the cheapest possible solution) but do we know that this is still the method of choice and that we are actually engaged in this process? If so I haven't seen it anywhere; has it been mentioned in a recent interview?

Thanks random - interesting article.

Oh and one thing I have overlooked doing until now; now that we are not totally dependent on the License extension, farm-out or TPDC "claim" resolution to provide us with operating capital I am moving from a HOLD to a BUY..... we can now at least actually start to do stuff on Nyuni and Kiliwani South. And then when eventually that $3 million and $2 million comes in from the farm-out I expect us to be making some (maybe just one) non Tanzanian acquisition(s).

I am not expecting instant gratification (nothing has changed my view of Tanzanian authorities) but have upped my holding considerably in the last 24 hours and may continue to do so on any forthcoming dips (cash flow allowing)

Moreover the diagram itself doesn't make clear whether this is a "current state" or "future state"; and, importantly to my mind, at the EGM there was absolutely no reference to their having put perf guns into the well. Quite the contrary and whilst I know that none of you will believe me there was NO suggestion that there was, or was about to be, any material operational activity at KN1..... Yes we are now 6 weeks on and things may have changed but that diagram is also 6 weeks old.

Jay's closing quote when discussing KN1 - "oh well, we are working on it..."

Drewky I was by no means implying that "truth hurts" was aimed at you; it wasn't. As you say, you agreed with parts of my post... I was imply suggesting that it had evidently upset somebody.

And I agree with you regarding posts and posters - I have said in the past that I would not attempt to get any post or poster removed. Whilst I may not like some or agree with some comments, opinions or even accusations I would always respond rather than attempt to have them removed. And if it goes too far there is always the filter button.

It takes all sorts to make a board - the more the merrier

Blimey someone evidently doesn't like some of the things being discussed earlier.... ho hum. Truth hurts maybe? So just to summarise...

The raise of £1.87 million simply suggests that the BoD cannot have any confidence in either getting the $3m farm-out proceeds within the next 6 weeks (pre March 31st) or resumption of KN1 production anytime soon.....

The raise does now mean that they can use the £1.87m with KN1 and Kiliwani in general which was originally meant to have been funded with the $3 million initial payment from the Farm-Out. However as some have suggested quite how soon may be determined by how long it takes to get the equipment into the country - the valve repair took 4 months because it took Schlumberger three months to get the equipment into Tanzania form Angola.

And random, in answer to your question regarding "approvals", I repeat, at the EGM JB stated categorically that they were still awaiting approvals at KN1, though he didn't state what for and I, making silly assumptions, did not ask.... Though I can say that the BoD were having great difficulty in having a meaningful dialogue with the operators of the SS GPP. Maybe 5/6 weeks after the EGM these issues may now have been solved?

We have had many of those same false dawns in recent months - a tick up or two on minimal volume only for minimal volume to cause it to retrace.....

Volume is the key not the sp.

Yes Drewky and we might get KN1 remediation this half year and might get the License extension before 31st March... who knows? Stranger things have happened.

Then again, we might not.

Oh and Drewky I meant to respond earlier to your claim. Firstly let me say that the articles referred to today are NO surprise as this study had been raised long before Christmas - we had been forewarned that it was coming. However to your point Drewky: "While I would agree that any PSA agreements granted during the time periods stated would at least have been looked at I somehow doubt the government would have given assurance of the license had they found anything untoward in our own arrangement."

Except in the same way that we have a "conditional" Farm- out agreement we might also have a "conditional" approval of License extension. Something like "we will be extending your PSA license once the current investigation has been concluded and any findings implemented" - like, say, the 15% TPDC "back in" clause may become 25%?

Will any changes materially affect the Farm-Out? I doubt it. Actually, I honestly do NOT believe this is likely to happen (changes) BUT I do think it may hold things up until the review of existing PSA's has been concluded. Indeed it may already have been concluded but it's findings still being mulled over.

Which ever it might be, indeed if any do apply, it only goes to prove my point - that nothing is for certain in Tanzanian O&G; least of all, timing....

And if you are right Drewky it will be those same people that will then take it back up to 1.75p. Thank goodness for them then as, without them, there would be no buyers and no sp movement at all... ;0)

So we should be thankful that Helium comes under the same Minster that looked after Acacia no doubt, CP? In fact I would be happier being under the Energy Ministry CP. There has been more concern and retroactive legal action from the Mining Ministry than ever there has from the Energy Ministry and yet look how difficult it has been to get any movement from them on anything for the last two years. Different they may be but still like two peas in a pod and it is only relative. We are simply talking about the lesser of two evils methinks....

Oh and apologies but for Solo read Helium 1 - of course! oops

The fact that EVERYONE seems to be forgetting here is that both Helium 1 and Ruvuma have one thing in common: they are BOTH controlled by the same mickey mouse Government and Civil Service that pervades every aspect of the development of Tanzanian extractive industries. What on earth makes you think that Solo will fare any better dealing with the same "business prevention officers" on Helium than Aminex has managed with Gas....?

Oh I hear you cry "but Helium is very important, high profile and very valuable" - yes and that will of course make all the difference! The higher the profile, the bigger the profit, the greater the issues. Just look at Gold. Lol....

Whilst I have some sympathy with your view on Click Bait and false logic the link below relates to a story that is NOT just about Orca, Drewky and may well impact AEX along with others...

https://mobile.thecitizen.co.tz/news/Tanzania-to-renegotiate-natural-gas-contracts/2304482-4965384-format-xhtml-429foq/index.html