Member Info for CrustyPete

Probably because they would spend more money on the RNS than they would receive from selling all the shares... ;0)

Good spot Drewky and all good news. Every little helps.

Not sure about dumping them immediately; is the market in Mayan liquid enough? Though I do agree entirely about the principle...

"which to me seems to be the way it has played out ..."

Oh dear, maybe you are right BG maybe this has all been planned for nearly 12 months and this outcome was always the government's preferred solution? Or maybe it was just totally random and indecision and confusion were the key determining factors? Have the Tanzanian authorities ever suggested that they have a plan, or are in control, of anything?

So BG, if that is now your fancied outcome can you also tell us all when we can expect it? How long will we have to wait for your guesswork to be proven correct? Or perhaps how long until the next sequence of events leads you to change your theory for the umpteenth time?

I think it is very simple, it is impossible to explain or predict the outcome or timescale with any confidence because it does not conform to any "rules", it is not a logical process, not even rational - no more so than the people pulling the strings; The Tanzanian Gov't and the Minister of Energy in particular.

The best piece of news we have seen recently is the agreement for Orca to supply SS GPP with gas - maybe someone has finally seen the light and recognises that the country's interests are more important than their own.

Bye bye until tomorrow...

GLA

I wouldn't argue with any of that Drewky. As I have said all along I do not doubt that we will eventually get the License Extension and all that will then duly follow BUT because I do not think these things are as "connected" "contingent" or dependent" as many have been suggesting - I reiterate that I once had a lot of sympathy with those same views. However after what I heard at the EGM I no longer hold with those views at all and I am firmly persuaded that all of the many delays that we have experienced over the last two years were all for the same reason - Government intransigence and indecision; individuals and ministers not wanting to take personal responsibility for anything that might come back and bite then on the arse. Because being bitten by Magafuli often results in more than a flesh wound.

So yes Drewky, we agree, the license is "forthcoming" I have never doubted it would be (well maybe in my nightmares!) - the big difference is that I do not believe there is any reason to think that just because we have supplied a positive vote at the EGM it will do anything to speed up an otherwise terminally slow process....

Yes, Tanzania needs it, The Govt needs it, AEX and the Zubairs need it, shareholders need it but that has long been the case and yet some "jobsworth" has only been concerned about his / her own neck... and in that regard it sounds terribly like another system a lot closer to home.

I am sure that it will eventually change but only when it moves closer to the top of someone's political agenda and priority list. I can only hope that day is fast approaching.

Indeed BG even with a positive shareholder vote they still cannot approve a farm-out; not until it has been concluded and we all know what is needed for that....

Isn't the reason that we didn't have the EGM in September or November simply because the BoD were waiting for the License Extension? Or was that someone else's explanation?

Where did I say he could BG....? The only approvals I am referring to are the License Extension approvals without which there never will be a Farm-Out for him to approve.

And I'm a cautious Minister for Energy and I won't do anything that might risk my job and my pension; so I will wait until the real decision maker opines and save my neck in the process... ;0)

What ever the reason or the answers I just hope it sorts out reasonably quickly and certainly before we miss another "weather window"....

I must dash or I will get the sack!

Yes GL I would100% agree but then, in principle we have had all three of those since circa March of 2018; all barring shareholder approval (which was a slam dunk anyway) and the remaining "conditions precedent"; and yet still that Minister for Energy sat on his / her hands - and do you think that something as incidental as the EGM vote will get him to take his life in his hands and do it now?

And BG as you say " this F/O deal is a win win win " and so it has been since it was first mooted in March 2018 but that has never been sufficient to get that extension approval has it. So the future of the country has been resting on a shareholder vote from some tinpot little "Oily" in blighty? Come on BG "pull the other one...."

"We are due some kind of update surely?"

I couldn't agree more CP but of course that would assume that they have anything material to report.....

I fear that we will not hear a dicky bird until the EOY report in, what, end of March beginning of April? They will be hoping that in the excitement of a License Extension, Farm-Out agreement and most importantly, $3 million payment, shareholders will conveniently forget about that little issue. Yet again I repeat until the "claim" is lifted there is no guarantee we would get paid on KN1 gas anyway so why spend money that you can ill afford to spend without a clear line of sight to new "income"?

Dunder that is pretty much what I have been alluding to since the EGM..... No-one wants to incur the wrath of Magafuli for doing something that might not meet with his "approval" and then come back and haunt them; this has been the principle reason that NOTHING has been sanctioned by the Ministry of Energy for two years; not, at least, until the recent Orca developments on qas supply to the SS GPP.

As I have been saying for weeks now, let's hope that development marks a watershed in that negative attitude.

Bye for now one and all, have work to attend to for the rest of the day. :0(

Morning Drewky, I am perfectly happy to accept that there may have been meetings over that period but who with and with what agenda I really could not say; neither JB nor KP gave any reasons to suggest that they had License Extension meetings (TPDC and PURA have long since recommended it to the Govt so we hear). What they did say was that they had pursued all official channels and a lot of unofficial ones in their quest to get the TPDC "claim" reversed and I am sure that whilst doing that they will have been pushing for the License Extension. That said most of those "claim" discussions (meetings?) were focused on the TPDC and not the Tanzanian Govt, so whether they had seen the Minister himself before the "rumoured" recent meeting I would not and could not say....

Why CP, I have given you 5/6 possible reasons CP but you are obviously not willing to accept or even consider any of them......

Furthermore CP as I have said a couple of times IF the BoD had initiated such works do you not think that it would be in theirs and everyone's interest to make it absolutely clear...? Not for the first time would the BoD be guilty of releasing just enough information to leave everyone in total darkness eh?

You stipulated as a fact that they were in the process of draining fluids.... I simply asked where it was they actually said that. As you have since proven: they didnt and havent said anything if the sort.... only that they have approvals to do so.

The rest is just your assumption.

Drewky this is the second time that you have made reference to this, exactly what "meetings you said took place" ? I have made no mention of any "meetings" that "took place", and certainly not with reference to the License Extension. Where did you get this from...?

Anyway I have to be going. Last leg of my journey, thankfully; and then to the bar!

Oh and one more possible explanation CP; yes AEX may have sufficient to cover the remediation costs but they may well choose NOT to spend it until they can be sure of the date for the Farm-Out completion or conclusion of the TPDC "claim" (what's the point of producing gas until they can be sure of getting paid for it?): so until they get either of these through, that "remediation money" may be the last cash they see for a good while. Is it worth taking the risk?

Anyway CP, last leg of my journey coming up so I will sign off for the night. I will be having a night cap in my hotel bar once I get there.

Good luck CP.

Yet again I refer you to my previous answer.... the last we heard from the BoD on the subject of KN1 was that they are still "in the testing and analysis phase"; there is no equipment nor expertise in the country to progress with the process; they will not begin the work until they agreed with SS GPP to resume gas production; fluid extraction is (possibly) problematical in the "rainy season". All just speculation CP, just like your original claim that " perforation was progressing & they were draining fluids". The difference I suppose CP is that I am not claiming it as "fact".

Oh and just to make it clear CP the statement claims that "Aminex is currently funded and does not need further approval for..." all of those things. It does NOT say that they are actually conducting any of them, simply that they do not need approvals to do so.

I refer you to my previous answer CP "Actually no I don't think they are doing nothing but do I think they are "draining fluid" or "perforating"? No."

I would happily concede that they may well be conducting necessary preparation for fluid draining and perforation; further testing and analysis, perhaps sourcing resources, expertise and equipment, even well maintenance but not fluid draining and / or perforation. If they were doing so I am 100% sure that we would have been told that is exactly what we are doing and we haven't. Once we are fluid draining or perforating I am sure that the BoD will want to sing it from the rooftops.

Sorry: "(meaning that .... all other "conditions precedent" my words not his were a "given")

Stopped on the A14 for a coffee :0)

When JB was asked at the EGM what the biggest risk of the March 31st back stop being missed he said "not getting the license extension" (meaning that all other. That indicates quite clearly to me that getting the License Extension in time for that deadline is far from a given. When asked when he thought that might be he said "we thought it was going to be the summer, then September then October, November and December and still we are waiting..." and "We anticipate that there will be a few licenses approved at the same time and we expect we will be in the first batch"

All paraphrasing BG not direct quoted of course.

If the license extension doesn't get approved by the 31st of March there is the opportunity (dependent on agreement of both parties) to extend the date yet further - it has already happened once and can happen again.

Personally I do think it will be done by then if only to enable APT to initiate the logistics surrounding the C1 spud (otherwise we could miss yet another weather window). Though does that depend on the 25 year Development License - JB suggested that we could even get that first! Now imagine the speculation that would bring about...;0)

Oh and CP you ask "It transfers the Burden of the deal completion post vote with the Zubairs offer for the development of the asset onto the minister, aminex are effectively out of the picture here on in."

Yes indeed and as would have been exactly the case back in September, October and November too but they didn't hold the EGM then when, if that was the issu,e they could have held the vote in, say, September and then the pressure would have been on the Tanzanian Govt for the last 4/5 months to approve the deal and extend the license. But, no, they "chose" to defer it. I don't think they had any choice because they were still assessing and confirming the minutiae and implications (tax being one of them) of the Farm-Out agreement. Where I do think the License Extension may have played a part is in the attitude of the Zubairs and maybe therefore the "changed" terms of the eventual agreement.

There was no reference to the Farm-Out being contingent on the License Extension until very recently - maybe it was the License Extension delays that forced the arm of AEX to include it? Would it have been in there if the License had been extended in, say, July? We will never know....

Anyway must dash, I have finished my coffee and have another 2.5 hours or more of driving yet.

Have a good evening BG, CP, Drewky and all. I will be offline for much of tomorrow so good luck all, fingers crossed for that extension.