Member Info for CrustyPete

I suspect your posts will always be three months late valveman? ;0)

Besides how would it look if there were a load of Directors buys the trading day before some significant market information or announcement? Fishy at best, illegal at worst....

I suggest that you read the RNS again - Placing shares and options.

Not quite mather, they would concede their holding pro rata to the remaining partners. But, as CP says Solo have more than sufficient to cover their share cover of C1 and pipeline costs; it is any subsequent development that is likely to cause them cash flow issues - unless they can liquidate additional assets (H1 etc), which may be a possibility post H1 IPO.... though whether they would choose to do this is questionable as Ruvuma is far more developed an asset than H1 and so closer to "maturity"....

I think it more likely that they would sell sufficient of their 25% to carry them to production - at that point the value of their holding would be at a premium. Then they might look to cash in and pay that long awaited "special dividend" to shareholders.

Whilst that is a possibility I do not see any reason for thinking that APT would not allow Solo the benefit of the cost savings; if they wanted to take advantage of their position and post false accounts they could just as easily do the same to AEX as to Solo.... Even more so as APT actually will have AEX's "money" in their own control. At least Solo will be able to scruntinise the "invoice" before shelling out the money; AEX won't.

Yes BG as you yourself suggested another Ntorya drill into the Jurassic methinks; Chikumbi 2..... (and NT4). And within 12 months of the LIcense Extension and so long before the EPS starts to pay out to partners. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Chikumbi 3 either, though maybe not within the 12 months....

Therefore Solo will have to fund their share of another drill ($5 million?) or sell (part sell) their 25%. Now that is exiting (or exciting even)! I will be very interested to see what they get for it - it will make a fascinating comparison to AEX's $5 million plus credit.

And again, only if you ignore the farm-out proceeds

AEX may not have Solo's cash but, until the farm-out goes through, they still have 3 x Solo's holding in the Ruvuma PSA so, no I still don not think they are the little brother CP..... they have 50% more of the Ruvuma asset or the Farm-Out proceeds - take your pick.

I would agree with your summary CP.

As regards " place your bets" - I have hedged mine; half in, half on the sideline...... ;0)

But when they get the License Extrension will make no difference to that BG, they will still have 12 months from the date of the extension, otherwise the twelve months will have expired before the License actually begins (it is 12 months overdue already)

6 weeks to go for farmout?

6 weeks to go before the back stop cuts in certainly. Will he have had the License Extension before then? No more than even money in my view. What happens to the Farm-Out agreement if not? What happens to the share price?

Thankfully I have held back a not inconsiderable sum just in case..... ;0)

"There is nothing the company could've or can do to control the licence arrival date and it's my view there was no attempt to deceive shareholders over this."

I would not have an argument with this statement, indeed I have been trying to tell everyone here that the BoD said exactly that at the EGM but despite this, some were opining that the License was only being held up awaiting the Farm-Out approval. Total nonsense.

So maybe no deceit Drewky but why oh why concentrate on the so called "facts" when they, in and of themselves, are totally meaningless..... Does it need the BoD to make that statement in an FAQ before it gets on the "fact" list?

So as you say Drewky

""Following the drilling of CH-1, the Ntorya Field will be considered for production potential, whereby a 3d seismic survey will fully evaluate the resources and the most efficient and cost-effective way to develop the field".

And? So what....? Well thanks BoD, we can all contemplate that whilst we await answers to the material questions, the questions which are NOT selectively spoon fed to the shareholders on the FAQ list.

I am not suggesting that the are lies Drewky - I am suggesting that they are not the "whole truth".... Like the assertion that the BoD expected the EGM to be held before the end of November but without saying what that was contingent on....

That said you first quote ""Aminex is currently funded and does not need further approval for the ongoing remedial work over Kiliwani (which includes well maintenance, fluid lifting and perforation) and it remains in the best interest of all parties to produce gas as quickly as possible".

Well I am not going to argue that they do not need approvals to continue wit the work but still maintain that they need approvals for something (as stated to the audience at the EGM) and maybe that is the reason that they are not exactly flying along with the work... or any one of many other possible reasons (equipment, rainy season, lack of funds?).... It will never be know whether they had adequate funds to complete the work as they have just had a £1.85 million fund raise; though I do think the timing might be a bit of an indication... the last bit about "remains in the best interest of all parties to produce gas as quickly as possible" is not a fact anyway it is just an opinion and totally meaningless - the BoD have been saying the same thing for two years and it has made not the slightest bit of difference. Which kind of makes the point; they were saying these things two years ago and yet we are still waiting for completion of remediation so why can we have any confidence that it is about to change?

Which leads me on to all of the remaining quotes - I could not possibly say whether they are truthful statements or not (I have no reason to doubt them) but whether they are true or not is somewhat less important than when, or indeed whether, the Farm-Out will ever be completed and we get the License extension as all of the remaining quotes are 100% contingent on the first two before ever being implemented.

It is a bit like saying that after I retire, I am going to buy a house in Avignon, write my Autobiography, learn to speak French and cycle up Mont Ventoux. All of that may well be true but it requires me first of all to live until my retirement age, still be healthy when I get there and even then have sufficient money in my pension to do all of those things.

As I said before Drewky even if the "facts" are true, concentrating on those whilst dismissing any of the contextual considerations and the impact of timeframe is, in my opinion, somewhat meaningless.

But hey that is only my opinion.

I will be busy all afternoon - let's hope for some material progress soon.

It is undeniably true Drewky that those statements have been made - that is a fact. Whether the content of those statements is actually true is another issue.....

It is a fact that the BoD stated that they were expecting to hold the EGM before the end of November. But it didn't prove to be the case. I am sure that the BoD have been assured that then License Extension will happen but does that necessarily mean it will be so? And even if it does will that be before Mar 31st? Soon enough to allow C1 drill in May /June?

Furthermore Drewky you yourself have recently stated your belief that it past assertions or statements may have been superseded by events yet to be discovered (or made public) so can we rely upon an historic statement or over simplistic FAQ responses as the current "reality"..... Recent events often make lies of past assertions as many long term AEX shareholders (including you) have witnessed many, many times.

Moreover even if we were to accept all of the statements below as "certainties", ultimately it is timing that drives everything...... had we completed the remediation of KN1 two years ago would we now be in our current predicament? "Approvals" or not, will we actually successfully complete it now before we need yet another fund raise?

So the trite soundbites that you quote below may well be part of the picture BUT even if they are all true they certainly do NOT tell the full story....

steve you say "The companies assets are worth a very large amount of money". Well they are actually worth only what someone is prepared to pay for them as Aminex found out to their cost.

In regard to the Ruvuma ssets Aminex got only $5 million and $35 million of credit for 50% of their Ruvuma PSA. This, for many AEX shareholders, was a huge kick in the teeth and a major disappointment as they had been expecting a far higher figure. Unfortunately because of the political situation in Tanzania, the debacle of the Acacia Mining incident and the fact that Aminex were in an appalling negotiating position they got a derisory sum..... and the Zubairs were the only show in town.

Things are likely to be different when it is that Solo come to sell up their 25% and I would expect them to negotiate a bigger deal BUT I think that there will be only a relatively small number of buyers for Tanzanian assets and those buyers are probably existing players in Tanzanian O&G.... Plus that buyer will always be playing second fiddle to APT as the operator of the assets. So I would not be getting too excited about the value of that 25% quite yet....

To optimise value Solo needs to hang in there until the EPS is generating an income and, in my view, that is a long way away (12 -18 months). Will Solo be able to hang around for that length of time? Will they be able to fund their participation until then? Or will they bail out after the C1 spud and before the income starts to flow?

Only time will tell but that "time" is not a matter of a few months in my view....

And both have an end of march deadline and are totally dependant on a monolithic bureaucracy in making ti happen

I would agree GL, lots of "boom" but the issue is when?! And, maybe, what will the sp be by the time we get there?

Will we need an extension to the "back stop" (Aminex and Theresa May?) Will we need another fund raise to bide us over? Will we get the TPDC claim removed so that we can actually get paid?

Lots to be resolved before those things "boom" events can happen and perhaps quite a bit of water to pass under the bridge. The only thing to have changed positively in recent times is that at least now we have some cash in the bank to try and restore our KN1 cashflow - TPDC Claim notwithstanding.....

JB could double his holding at the current price and still have plenty of change from his Net salary.... Oh to be in that position eh? ;0)

It would certainly take an awful lot of Aminex shares to account for JB's salary... That recent placing would have come from small change!! ;0)

Well as far as I can see all looks positive. The final break with the past in thexremoval of Dan Malling and insight into futute priorities.

I must admit to being a bit pwrplexed about the need for a Head Of Operations - Solo aren't operators of anything!!