Member Info for CrustyPete

And all reliant on the actions and decisions of intransigent bureaucracies......

Use the opportunity well. Surely not long now until both the UK Govt and the Aminex BoD push out their "long stop". That won't provide anyone with their ideal solution but it will at least avoid the "cliff edge" and, who knows, maybe we will all get the surprise of a lifetime and both The EU commission and the Tanzanian Govt will pull a rabbit out of the hat and end this indecision early.

Oh and Tiptop don't misunderstand me, I too am perfectly fine with the idea of an acquisition through a share swap, placing or just plain share purchase - as long as it is for an income producing asset (or very near to production) and at a good price.

Though you say "If it were a straight placement I think that would of been closed out by now...." maybe - or maybe they need to do the deal at the "average share price over a three month period" as is often the case and they need to hold it here for another week or two...?

But Bluffmaster there would only be an sp rise in anticipation of the 31st of March if there were a significant number of people that actually thought we would get a license extension in that time and unfortunately past performance would suggest that we will all be disappointed yet again...

So can you provide an example of one such deal? They are few and far between, so until it happens, a share deal requiring share issuance is what I will be expecting..... maybe cash too but that would require a placing alongside the share based deal, as we have no cash.

If you are right TT and I believe you probably are then not only could the price being controlled to facilitate a "deal" but it could also be for a "placing". Indeed even if it is a deal, it will probably be a share deal and any purchase will be "financed" through the issue of more shares. Not at all necessarily a bad thing but the only reason for controlling the sp would be for the purposes of price stability prior to dilution / share issuance (for whatever reason)...

"Just all depends when that licence is going to drop, before or after the 31st"

Maybe CP but if the License extension is looking unlikely before the 31st I fully expect them to push out the "longstop" date within the next two weeks and that would prevent the "cliff edge" scenario and cushion that sp crash.... if the BoD do not do that they deserve shooting.

Just because Solo has circa £7 million on the balance sheet in absolutely no way ensures that the MC remains at that level - you surely remember Bowleven CP who had £200 million of cash but a market cap of circa £70 million before their active shareholders orchestrated a revolt?

It traded at a discount essentially because the market perception was that the cash would not necessarily be spent wisely and in a way that had a positive outcome for Shareholders. $7 million of cash is worthless if it gets spent on a dud asset....

Anyway one and all I have to be off now - out for a few beers tonight.

GLA

I don't think they will do that CP for a multitude of reasons all discussed before. I do agree on the floor though - the caveat being all the time we have a "longstop" I do not think that would hold without one being in place - hence the reason I have suggested (not for the first time) that we need the BoD to come out early and notify us of an extension to that long stop... That or, better still, an extension to our bloody License!!

I have kept my BUY on as I expect one or other of these things to happen before the 31st March (and I have put a small amount of money where my mouth is) but it is with an appropriate "wealth warning".... because if we get to the 31st without either of them that sp will be in deep doo-doo

My lowest ever purchase price of AEX was 0.65p in July 2016 just before ARA bought in - if we do not get that License Extension before 31st March will I be able to buy some more at that price? Probably! Just as well I have kept my powder dry :0)

Just bought a (very) few more.

On the other side of the coin we should be hearing from the AEX BoD about an extension to that "long stop" in due course and NOT wait until after the 31st to announce it otherwise the "market" will assume the worst and that will not be a good outcome..... not for existing holders anyway.

random you ask "It's been 4 weeks since the placing to 'accelerate' Kiliwani rather than wait 6 weeks till the farm out is finalised, should hear something on that soon otherwise have to ask what the rush was.?

Do you really think they would have raised more cash four weeks ago if they actually thought that the Farm-Out would complete by 31st March? I don't.... except as an excuse for them all to buy more at a nice low price. Well a low price four weeks ago - they probably wish they had waited now Lol!

Dear oh dear, what price will this be after the 31st of March without that License Extension?

Blimey hardnose, they might at least have had the courtesy to wait until the 31st March before cutting us out of their stated plans altogether!! Where is their consideration for the little ol' Amines shareholder.... ;0)

Lol, I think I have heard it all now; our fortunes are now going to changecall if a sudden because of the influential Zubairs and the rather large development of Ntorya.... oh really is tgis tge same Zubairs that gave been our cornerstone investor since 2016? Is that the rather large Ruvuma development that we hsve waited 18 months for a debelopment license for? The same Ruvuma that we have been awaiting our License extension for 15 months?

How much has their influence caused the Tanzanian govt to compltet these? None. Surprising really bearing in mind tgat tgere has been a Farm Out proposal on the table for a year now.

So much for their influence BG. The reality is that the Tanzanian govt will move at their own pace and there is little tgat tge Zubairs or anyone else will be able to influence it.

Yes we are better off with them than without them but the evidence proves that they have limited impact on developments in Tanzania.

Anyway BG that "Executive Summary" only describes an aspiration and NOT a process; words and figures will differ enormously as has already been proven by the total lack of any concerted, co-ordinated throughout the whole of the last two years.

The proof of the pudding BG is in the eating and the O&G industry in Tanzania has been starving for two years. And yet it is all going to change radically overnight and just because little ol' Aminex needs it to...?

Unlike you BG I won't beholding my breath.

So you are convinced that it is not a situation of "one hand not knowing what the other is doing"?

Well I do not share that confidence and nor, according to their words at the EGM, do the BoD..... and I will take their word for it BG and not yours.

Well I disagree BG - the 25 Year Development License I am told is a totally parallel and unconnected process to the License Extension - moreover the License extension delays involve multiple entities and licences which are unlikely to be issued individually but more likley in tranches. The decisions around to whom and when those Licences are issues are totally unconnected to any Aminex specific issues and will not impact this one iota. I would agree that there is little point in issuing the 25 yr Development License without the Ruvuma License extension and therefore the Dev License signing might well not be top of the Govt's priority list but it may well be just a question of which lands on the Ministers desk first...

I totally disagree with the idea that the Govt will be issuing the License extension simply because APT or AEX need it issued to enable the Farm-Out process to complete. If that were the case why did they not extend it before the last "long stop" date? Oh, because of the Farm-Out vote now two months ago? Total nonsense...

"I think the farm-out or the timing for completion is on track or thereabouts, and likewise the 1 year licence extension"

On track for what BG? The end of 2018 C1 spud date you mean?

Nothing is fixed BG and what is assumed today may well be totally different by the end of Q1 2019 as the BoD's belief in the C1 spud date being Q4 2018 only goes to prove. Moreover more important than the "gas demand growth" is their ability to supply it. No-one doubts that there is the demand but without a pipeline they cannot meet that demand, and without a 25 Year Dev license there is no pipeline, without a license there is no farm-out and without that there is no money and no spud! Lots of dominoes have to fall yet.....

Support for an accelerated development programme is one thing, the action on many fronts is another; and those dominoes will not fall without that License....

Even at the EGM JB intimated that they may yet get progress on the 25 Dev License before the License Extension but that doesn't help anything unless the Farm-Out goes through.

So when AEX and the Zubair's approach the Govt and say "come on Govt it's about time that you gave us our License extension and if you don't we will..... err, we will, we will err, yes, I know.. we will Refuse to Push Back Our Long Stop Date!!" And the Tanzanian Govt will err..... fall about laughing. The partners know full well that to do that would be cutting off their nose to spite their face and the Tanzanian Govt know that by doing so the partners would be committing commercial suicide.

"bargaining position"?! Good gracious, do you really think that the Govt are even cognizant of the "long stop" let alone give it any consideration? You will be saying next that now we have had a positive Farm-Out vote the Govt will award us our license extension.....

(And yes according to JB the Govt are aware of it, I know

Sorry CP but in my view the reasons for our License extension delay are far more deep seated than any particular Aminex issues and will NOT be influenced one iota by our current Farm-Out predicament. All of these current license extension delays have the same root cause and resolution of that issue is the only thing that will unblock this log jam...

I stand corrected TB and it was a crass oversimplification so my apologies. In fact I agree with you entirely TB..... and yet the ultimate irony is that the Tories are supposedly the the "Conservative and Unionist" party. Disgraceful and totally unforgiveable in my view but hey, wtfdik.