Member Info for CrustyPete

I tend to agree with you hardnose, all of the FM's that I have spoken to would run shy of Oil producers especially micro cap Oil producers - if they touch Oilies at all it is because of dividend / income not growth.

Fortunately and until we drill C1 AEX are only a gas producer (and not even that right now!) and gas producers are viewed differently; as a more carbon "friendly" option and particularly so for developing countries who typically resort to Coal as the cheapest source of energy - as is viewed as a vast improvement on Coal

Oh and one other thing - IF, I stress IF as I expect, the C1 drill comes out ahead of expectations (high flow rates) and IF the EPS solution can be completed and come online within a short time horizon thereafter I do believe that with an income of approaching $20m pa to AEX we could easily see 10p again. Though any rise to approaching that level certainly would NOT be in a straight line so I would expect there to be "trading" opportunities for those that are so inclined.

I agree with much of what you say Hardnose, particularly in relation to the "bear" case, where two of your three factors will certainly play a part in my view, though the third of them I think is spurious. Many will have been sitting on their hands waiting for exactly that moment to buy in and with the prospect of Oil (albeit remote in my view) there will still be a lot of "hot money" arriving to support the spike.

That said how high will the spike be? Well in my view that depends enormously on the level of the sp at the time of the spud. I think we have the prospect of 3p plus on the License extension and Farm-Out and maybe 4p if we can successful KN1 remediation in parallel - the question is how long will we then have to wait for the C1 spud date because if there is a long wait the 3p or 4p will NOT hold - people will take the opportunity to cash in with a view to getting back in later for the C1 spike. We could even see the sp back down close to current levels if we have to wait a long time for that Spud... :0(

We can only hope that the BoD and APT have all the dominoes lined up and, once the License Extension gets approved, all the subsequent dominoes will fall in quick succession. If so we could see 7p again but everything would have to align perfectly and how many times has that ever happened in the last two years....?

MI - you ask "I don’t seem to understand why anyone would want to sell at this point ....".

Well I would suggest because they are expecting continued delays on the License and Farm-Out news and a consequential decline in the sp.... by selling now they can buy back far more in 6 -8 weeks time if we are still waiting for news. Who knows they may well be right.

Personally I do not think it will be long and we could get some material news to coincide with the EOY figures which have always been issued in the past between the 6th and 26th of April (from memory). Consequently I am happy to buy at these current prices and, if we do get nothing for 6 -8 weeks, I will buy more later at the lower prices.

Still have some in"reserve" GL.. :0)

Yes indeed a few buys one or two sneaky ones from me too... :0)

I am not crucifying anyone Drewky and am more than well aware that the Govt are holding things up. You may remember my saying that for that very reason I did not anticipate the License being extended before the 31st March and have been very cautious about the timescales since the AGM in July.

However the Govt cannot be blamed for the BoD not making non Tanzanian acquisitions when we had the chance.

When you say that it was this BoD that found the gas, which gas are you referring to Drewky? Certainly not Ntorya. NT1 was drilled in 2012 and the ONLY BoD member that was present then and present now is Max Williams - and he didn't have much to do with the drilling either... ;0)

Why so early? Well more than likely because there is very little if any "analysis" that needs to be done. There is nothing to analyse...

that is certainly the situation that we now find ourselves in but it was certainly avoidable if, say, in early / mid 2017, when we had plenty of funds and a new cornerstone investor - had we chosen to use the then £250 million MC to raise more funds and diversify outside of Tanzania we would not be in the "hole" that we now find ourselves. We could now have non Tanzanian income and operations to be getting on with whilst we wait for hell to freeze over and the Tanzanian Govt release the financial arm-lock that they have (albeit unwittingly) created for us.

We simply must ensure that history does not repeat itself.

Time to buy in my view - this feels very much like summer 2016 and between summer 2016 and spring 2017 the sp / mc rose by circa 1000%. We will now of course have a much reduced interest in our principle asset once the License Extension comes through so maybe to expect a similar rise would be unsupportable but I really do think that we are at, or close, to the bottom now.

Brave words maybe?

I think the biggest "take-away" from the recent Malcy blog is the Solo BoD's ambition of reducing the proportion and hence the dependency on Ntorya as their principle asset; at least the sp and corporate success would no longer be a hostage to fortune of the TPDC and Tanzanian govt....

This something that AEX BoD have only cottoned onto way too late - I have long been an advocate of the need for diversification outside of Tanzania as our continued dependency on the vagaries of the Tanzanian Govt will always make the sp similarly unreliable....

I wasnt making the comparison vike it was a member of the AEX BOD that did so..... and that was long before the deal was called off.

They still nabaged to get their development approved and ghe TPDC claim removed; which is more than can be said for Aminex

I know that it is quite a while since the EGM but, in conversation after the Q&A it was suggested that there is no direct link between KN1 and the Ntorya License Extension but that, unfortunately with KN1 not producing they had less leverage with the TPDC and Govt. It was suggested that like Orca (who now have their Farm-Out approved and development approved) had KN1 been producing they could do as Orca did and turn off the gas - thereby ensuring that their spurious TPDC claim was immediately resolved, development plans approved and the SWALA Farm-Out agreed too....

However, as I said yesterday, I do think we will see some movement before the end of next Month; hence I am picking up a few shares here and there as cash flow allows.

Ah, the penny has dropped. You mean the AGM? So you have been told August for an AGM? Really?!?

They will have to issue EOY figures within three months of the EOY unless there are exceptional circumstances and the AGM has to follow in good order thereafter. If there is to be no AGM until August they would have to have a very good reason for delaying it... Just the "hope" that they may be able to complete the Farm-Out before the end of July would not be good enough otherwise they could put it off indefinitely whilst waiting for the Tanzanian Govt to grant them a License extension.

Fjones, sorry, I don't know what you are talking about? What is August....? Have I mentioned a date for anything? I don't think so.....

And whether the BoD know what they are doing is somewhat immaterial (they are simply waiting along with the rest of us....); no-one else knows what they are doing either and until they do no-one will be buying the shares.....

I would suggest that before the new "strategy" emerged to re-perforate at the new, lower, level the BoD were not too inclined to hurry with any remediation process as the likely outcome was ore effort than it was likely to be worth. The new "re-perforation" strategy is a relatively new one and, MAYBE, until the 2D seismics has been reworked and re-interpreted even that new strategy is not yet considered worth sinking your last few quid on..... hence the continued prevarication.

That recent raise is probably just enough to continue paying the overheads and a few more low price "tweaks". I suggest that as soon as we get the License and hence the Farm-Out you will see things moving considerably quicker> until then it would be a very brave man that would put his last wage packet on an outsider when he doesn't yet know how long he will wait to the next pay day......

And this has been exactly the problem since March 2018 when the Farm-Out was first mooted; this has been the one and only course of action ever since - the BoD have become handcuffed by it....

That said I now do not believe it will be too long before their "one trick" pony comes in. The problem is that the market has moved on during the last two years and the share price holed below the water line; as a consequence we shareholders will never see the value that we might otherwise have done....

Colinski, you ask

"I mean why commit resource to revisiting 2D seismic when there’s a well there ready to earn cash ?"

Maybe you have inadvertently just hit the nail on the head Colinski.... is there a well there ready to earn cash? Is there......?

JB once upon a time alluded to the idea that if the TPDC hadn't been so insistent Aminex BoD may well have plugged and abandoned KN1 rather than wasted a lot of time, money and effort in draining what were always going to be the last dregs from the bottom of the KN1 well. And I think they had always been simply hoping that Ntorya and C1 in particular may have made it all totally unnecessary had they kicked off as planned, in Q2/3 2018. No-one would now be giving two hoots about KN1 - the TPDC included if the C1 drill had further proven up the Ntorya and Jurassic prospects and the pipeline had now been underway.

From memory I think the figure you are looking for is (up to) $880,000 for a period of two years; prior to last summer is was not entirely lost but since then we have earned nothing.... and haven't been paid for circa $2.3 million of gas that we have produced. So it would not be an exaggeration to say that a figure of circa $18,000,000 of income that we might otherwise have received if KN1 remediation had been expedited in a timely manner.

Oh how different things might have been eh? Ntorya sale, Kiliwani South drill, non Tanzanian Acquisitions....? Who knows how things might have looked.

KN1 = Achilles heel since May 2017 AGM....

There will be an AGM in May and we could not get an EGM set up any earlier than that - so I would recommend that you just sit it out until then.

EOY figures within the next two or three weeks and then an AGM four weeks after that - hence in 6/7 weeks you will have the opportunity to say and do whatever you like. There is NO point in attempting anything else over that period.

The AGM will be in Dublin.

We shoukd get the EGM a lot, lot sooner than July. It is usually in May a few weeks afyer the EUY figures in mid April. It was only due to the farm out tgat the AGM was delayed last year.

What is more it will be in Dublin.