Member Info for CrustyPete

I agree greatayp. In the past the sp has tended to rise ahead of the AGM and then fall afterwards as the "expectation" is always far greater than the subsequent reality.

This year I think it will be the other way round; I am expecting something of a sea change at the AGM in terms of communicating the forward strategy and planning....

Hey solo'ers. Guess who I bumped into in Eldon St (London) yesterday? Yep, you guessed it Neil Ritson...!

"it is a matter of opinion CP.@ Yes that is exactly my point MAX. You made an assertion that "it would have been professional of him at least to do an interview to introduce' his idea of how we will move forward the company" as if it was a fact. But it isn't MAX it is purely YOUR opinion and I was pointing out that others have a different opinion...... I don't think his doing an interview would have been "professional" at all; in all honesty I believe as of those interviews from AEX or any other Company come across as professional instead they all seem rather amateurish.... It may be what you need to satisfy your desire for further information but that does not make it "professional". Quite the contrary in my view.

But ho hum.

GLA

Well I totally disagree I think the AGM is exactly the right forum to present such a strategy. I am expecting it to have soem significant impact that would not be provided from some half arsed interview along the lines that we are used to....

We have all speculated about the reasons for delay in KN1 and the BoD have more recently explained that is is largely due to the lack of O&G services in country and that to get equipment shipped to Tanzania is both extremely difficult, interminably slow and is prohibitively expensive (if you have the limited cash resources at AEX's disposal).

I believe that if you were to go to the AGM you would find out much that would satisfy your thirst for information and explanation and moreover much of the context for that information you will only get from the AGM because the Q&A sessions and the after speech discussions that you get to have with the BoD provide insights and explanations that you will not get simply from the presentation itself.

Just wait for the AGM MAX, ideally attend the AGM and hear what they have to say or read the presentation that will be published for the AGM.

I expect our new Chairman John Bell to be making the necessary changes in AEX shareholder communication and for him to correct the misdeeds of the past.... The last AGM was railroaded by the Farm Out and was a total non--event as far as I am concerned; we got no answers to anything. I expect that to be corrected this time.

That said MAX there is bugger all he can do about TPDC / Tanzanian Govt timescales and so I won't be holding my breath on that score. The timing of the License Extension is still anyone's guess and I don't think the BoD will have any better idea than you or I do....

Frank, you say "....to see how far the can has been kicked now...." This reveals a certain misconception; to "kick a can down the road" you first of all have to have a can to kick. The Tanzanian Govt haven't even established what game they are playing, let alone whether it even involves a "can"..... AEX are playing one game and the Tanzanian Govt an altogether different game. Aminex are still trying to get the Govt to blow the whistle.

The "corner being turned" at Solo has nothng whatever to do with Ruvuma and License Extension; Solo have other assets and have a "plan" to increase production to 5000 BPD (equivalent). AEX has no such plan and no obvious route to creating it, as, with the exception of Kiliwani and future acquisition, Ntorya is the only route to such production. This is all contingent on deliverables beyond AEX control...

Kiliwani and acquisition may be within the AEX BoD's gift Ntoary isn't yet.

As I said the other day I am sure there will be an AGM presentation that provides some clarity and comfort on these options but I do not expect there to be anything specifically on Ntorya and License Extension except what plans the BOD has to ensure that we have sufficient cash flow to get there.

So Frank what are you expecting the Company to provide a rough idea of at the AGM? The length of time to the Licence Extension? Because of that's what you are hoping for you will be sorely disappointed. Firstly because there is no reason why they would have any more idea today when the Govt were going to "jump" than they did at this time last year and secondly, even if they did, they certainly wouldn't be telling anyone and risk being accused of "misleading" shareholders when then it was late yet again..... They have been bitten far too often to fall for that one again.

I think you will receive more definitive statements regarding Kiliwani and an "acquisition" strategy and possibly developments on Nyuni but as for the long awaited License Extension? They would be bloody mad to make any predictions whatsoever....

I would agree with that matherdj; there is no way that we will be having a dilution with the sp where it is (assuming it was even possible), we would just be giving value away and it would make no sense.

I would not be at all surprised to find us raising funds for diversification though; borrowing maybe? Or, more likely, farming out yet more of Ruvuma...... And I would not be surprised to see this in the relatively short term but that means license extension as the key to unlock a deal?

"What do you think about the prospects of there being a near term fundraiser?" Let me answer that BF.

My expectation is that there might well be a fund raise for "acquisitions" within the next 12 months but even then this would not be via a "dilution".

I also think that the cost cutting exercise that has been commenced is designed to extend the current cash balance well into 2020 by which time we are likely to have completed any or all of the various outstanding Tanzanian deliverables (License Extension, Farm-Out, KN1 remediation and the resolution of the TPDC claim and payment of outstanding invoices).

Moreover some (2/3 at least) of these might be a lot closer to resolution than you would like us to believe..... I remain optimistic, hence the reason that I have been buying at levels just above 1p.

Bearing in mind that we have about one year's working cash flow on the balance sheet and, knowing as we know, that everything in Tanzania takes an eternity, we should take every and any opportunity to stretch that cash balance as long as we can. I am sure that if the BoD had any underhand motives or this move they would, instead, be recommending that we de list altogether and join AIM!

I have said before and I will say again the lack of O&G services in Tanzania has been the issue with Kiliwani over the last 12 months (and probably longer) and with a very restricted cash balance the BoD cannot afford to plough large sums into bringing services into Tanzania; particularly with the TPDC invoice and claim issues still outstanding - we could spend a fortune on successfully remediating KN1 and still not get paid for it.

We have been told that the BoD are in the process of a cost cutting exercise and I am sure that the action that we have all long been complaining about and asking (salaries) will be addressed very soon.

The last AGM was a disaster as it was totally railroaded by the "Farm Out" issues and we got NONE of our questions (Kiliwani, License Extension, Development License, acquisitions etc) answered and now we can add another one to the list Nyuni.

I am sure that the BoD will use the opportunity of the AGM to provide the Shareholders and the market with a full and open "plan" for the way forward along the lines that we have all been asking for. The BoD cannot change the crippling pace of progress on our Tanzanian related projects but they can give us their "coping strategy" and that would provide us all with some comfort and confidence. You never know we might also see some good news on those long promised "acquisitions" that would make us less dependent on the one source of income that is Tanzania (Hip Hip Hooray).

It is only a few weeks to the AGM; I, for one am happy to sit tight and await that AGM presentation.... and I am really not going to get at all vexed about the change of listing status particularly if it offers us the necessary flexibility to bring in one or more new "partners" to fund that long awaited diversification outside of Tanzania.

GLA

So you will be at the AGM? There is little to no point repeatedly spouting your vitriol to the readers of the BB. What do you hope or expect that to achieve? Except perhaps simply letting off steam and lowering your stress levels....

Attend yhe AGM and let the BOD know how you feel. Who knows you may find out something of value...

Then I will be expecting you to be at the AGM to voice your opinion John? Because, let's be honest, bleating about it every day on this BB will achieve nothing except driving potential buyers away and it makes extraordinarily boring reading....

Maybe you should email your views to Camarco to relay on to JB

Morning Drewky.

I have tried texting and calling you on the mobile that I have for you (2018 AGM) but it appears that it is no longer in service.

Please drop me a text or mail with your new number and I will give you a call. Though not today as I will be attending a funeral later.

Don't confuse 2P and 2C BG, they are quite different and not easily compared..... Ntorya 2P resources will not become 2P reserves until we have the pipeline and GSA " in the bag" and those reserves will then only grow as we complete more of the FFD over time....

Oh dear here we go again, more blinkered, one eyed confirmation bias from the blatantly transparent one.... I will get back to this alter when I can but just one or two observations for now.

1) "Aminex will hold a smaller stake in a smaller field then Wentworth", how predictably convenient to totally ignore the potential Jurassic resources being targeted with C1 drill.

2) "So TPDC can just spend money as they like and not look at the business case..... Really?" Shortsighted nonsense. Do you really think the TPDC is sufficiently "short termist" to jeopardise the development of the country's O&G infrastructure and wider economy based on the "commerciality" or "profitability" of a development over 2, 3 or even 4 years? Lol

I have heard it all now, you really are desperate.... Thankfully, and to use your own words mick "you don’t need to be a rocket scientist or have any special skills to work out" how ridiculous your assertion actually is.

I have nothing against WEN; it is a perfectly reasonable company that will grow nicely over the next 2 - 3 years (80 -130 MMscf/d) - I just think that AEX will grow by much more; minimal MMscf/d - 100+ MMscf/d) from it's own holdings in the following assets; KN1, KN2, Ntorya FFD (6-8 drills) plus the re-working of NT1 and NT2 and Jurassic targets. And with the potential to see large rise in resources over that same period.

Oh and mick, forgot to mention; you say.....

"Sorry to say, but Ntorya remains stranded, and I expect that it will remain so for years to come. I think Aminex should focus on trying to start a new development around Kiliwani, which is much easier to produce from TPDC’s perspective."

Well I do not agree about Ntorya being stranded I think it will be connected in 2020 but, even if you are right, as regards your thoughts on Kiliwani? Where on earth have you been hiding? AEX will no longer be the operator of Ntorya after the License Extension and Farm-out and are already working on remediation of KN1 and seismics for another KN drill site. So yes I tend to agree with you and, so it seems, do the AEX BoD.....

CP I do not think that the WEN shareholders have too much to worry about but then, unfortunately, not too much to look forward to either. Stultifying progress at best..... at least you get some highs and lows with Aminex eh? ;0)

much of that risk is removed and then the growth and hence the investment potential of Aminex is far greater. Yes, WEN has income and has the ability to raise production considerably over coming years but, let's be fair it has doubled it's income over the last 18 months and what has that done to the MC? Bugger all mick is the answer and I fully expect more of the same from WEN over the next two years unfortunately for WEN shareholders. What new exciting developments have WEN got on the horizon....?

"I’m looking forward to your contributions here Pete, and the nice thing is, you can actually have a real debate without somebody constantly twisting your words". Well sorry to disappoint you mick but I won't be making any contributions to the WEN BB going forward; unlike you I choose not to interfere in the affairs of shareholders or those companies I am not invested in and I do not attempt to profit by undermining other people's investments.

Moreover mick the WEN you say that on teh WEN BB you can " can actually have a real debate without somebody constantly twisting your words " - really mick? Actually mick there is NO "debate" on the WEN BB only a mutual appreciation and congratulation society. And about what? A flatline sp? Wonderful....

More later - I must go now.

GLA

Oh dear here we go again, same old agenda driven speculation mick?

I can see why someone with your transparent agenda would come up with the conclusions that you have mick - it is called "conformation bias"... you can only see what you want to see.

So regarding the 25% - firstly as Drewky says that has been relaxed and the minimum is now 16% (and this can be further mitigated through using Tanzanian support entities). Secondly it is not at all guaranteed that these will be implemented retroactively. Thirdly if they are it is only where the existing arrangements are perceived as being contrary to Tanzania interests. SO, as the TPDC had the option to implement a back-in rights of 20% at Kiliwani and chose only to exercise 5% I think it ridiculous to assume that they would choose to do so. Moreover if they do exercise it on Ntorya and Kiliwani they will also do so over Mnazi Bay and as, under the legislation that you yourself quote the TPDC interest is "fully carried", it will not cost the TPDC any more for Ntorya than for Mnazi Bay... so your rhetorical question that

"don’t you think that it would be more sensible for TPDC to invest in Mnazi Bay, which is much cheaper to develop further"

is totally specious.

Now let's look at your comments regarding figures and spend; you ask "How long do you think it will take before TPDC will be writing black numbers on Ntorya? 5 years? 7 years even?"

Well that question is only even relevant IF you believe that the TPDC's priority is to make "profit" and trade in the "black" which it isn't; of the 6 stated objectives of the TPDC NONE is related to profit and all relate to promoting the growth and sustainability of an Oil and Gas infrastructure in Tanzania. It could equally be argued that it is in the country's interest to ensure and increase the flexibility and geographical diversity of supply. But even if you ignore that some of your other assumptions which you state as facts do not stand scrutiny.

1) That the TPDC will fund the pipeline - when in fact it is just as likely that it will be funded by the Ntorya partners; in which case the TPDC will have to fund only 25% (maximum s above)
2) the TPDC will have to fund $70 million - the FFD plus pipeline is circa $160 m so even 25% would only be $40m
3) that $40 m would be funded over the FFD period which would at most be what? $10 -12m per annum? Yet after EPS 25% would be looking to receive $10m pa in income and at only 40 mmscf/d, which could be exceeded comfortably after NT1,2 re-working and C1 drill.

And a few other home truths mick;
1) "you don’t need to be a rocket scientist or have any special skills to work out that WEN is in a vastly better position than Aminex." and equally mick you don't need to be a rocket scientist to see that investment return is not dependent purely on the current position but more typically on the expectation of future growth. Yes AEX position is far more risky bit once the License extension is approved

Simply to try an scare holders into selling AEX and buying his own moribund outfit,Tanzania; purely and simply, malicious mischief making and self interest....