Member Info for CrustyPete

That is exactly the point Matherdj; as we have discussed before there is only a short window to get all the logistics in place for a Dec/Jan spud and I am not convinced they can do it (though the recent statements by ARA and the advancing of the AEX payments are surely designed to give theme every chance) . That is the very reason for my hesitation re speculating about the sp. It will make an enormous difference.

All of the other developments listed earlier by others will have an impact but could well be short lived as some long termers take the opportunity to get out with their a**e intact.... Therefore without the spud we might find that the peak sp occurs before the end of the year and falls back as the excitement about a Dec spud evaporates and people decide.

And as for you Zebbo and your assertion "Think Crusty is the type to see everything in black and white before committing..." Well I think you are better off NOT thinking at all Zebbo. For your information Sebbo I have over 8 million shares in AEX and 1 million in Solo and have had for a long time. Is that enough of a "commitment" for you?

I will leave the guessing games to you fjones. I firmly belive that it will be higher than is is now but the sp will depend on the license extension and spud dates so until we know those Frank it would be totally ridiculous to to speculate.....

The NAV is meaningless untill and unless it can be monetised and until that day the sp will operate at a discount due to risk, future costs and the time value of money. Even accepting your numbers (which I would contest) you could argue that, at the moment, we are lucky to only be operating at a 50% discount..... as we get closer to monetising our assets (all currently some way off production) the discount will diminish and we would hope that the NAV grows significantly with further drilling and acquisiton.

GLA

Non executive chairman is hardly that taxing a position Dunder? And a man has to earn a living of some kind....

Last throw will be pleased... NOT!

If they have any sense let's hope so.... when ever has any interview resulted in anything but idle speculation and second guessing?

There appear to be in excess of 6,000,000 of chunky sales (500k plus) going through this morning...... it will be interesting to see if this dries up or whether, if it persists, there is a large overhanging tranche of shares looking to take advantage and thereby suppress any rise over coming days and weeks.

Yes smudger that is correct though, from memory, about $3m ($2.93m?) of that is due to Aminex.

"The Company has accordingly sought approvals from the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation ("TPDC") to perform the operation and has commenced sourcing appropriate equipment."

Oh how I laughed....!! :0)

Does this mean that the previous BOD had not even sought the necessary approvals? Their claim in the FAQ's that ALL outstanding approvals had been gained look to have been downright lies.

From all previous discussions with JB and BOD he Foam treatment has a fairly limited chance of success; 10% - 15% by all accounts. Maybe the new BOD have a different view on this but if it doesn't have the desired effect I do not expect them to be spending "real" money on KN1 until ALL outstanding issues have been resolved - and that includes payment of outstanding invoices and tax issues.

Typically I am away on holiday when an RNS is published and 9am currently in Puerto Banus !

FWIW my take on events is very simple. The deferment of the completion date to next June is of no consequence, it is a prudent step. Whilst I do believe we will get a license extension in the short term there is no telling how long it will take the Goverment to agree to the farm out on change of operator. I said weeks ago thatcit would be a very tight call in spudding C1 at the turn of the year if we had to wait for the License extension before soing so. This announcement now makes it a real possibility (though ls still tight).

AEX is still currently the operator and so will have to prodress this themselves and evidently could not do so without some cash. So the $3m advance (if indeed that is what it is - no figures are mentioned) will be needed to kick start this process.

As I have said for months I do not expect any money to be spent on KN1 until AEX have sight of an income stream and that will require the release of current outstanding invoices and the removal of the sword of Damocles from above their neck; in the form of the outstanding tax claim.

GLA

Gents, I am an investor in AAOG (circa £20k) and am underwater; though I did make some good money between 6 and 18p. I for one am not doubting the value (and hence underpining) of the assets here but having been a long term investor in Aminex I fully recognise that having the assets "in the ground" is NOT the material issue - it is about being able to monetise those assets and any significant delay will compomise the MC through the inevitable erosion of both balance sheet and cash reserves. AEX has been hobbled by the intransigent, despotic nature (Magafuli government) of their so called "democratic" government (LOL) and to expect that the Tshisekedi government to act any differently is optimistic in the extreme, in my view. Manipulation and positioning will rule and the disappointing but inevitable consequence is delay and uncertainty. Consequently I have no expectation, belief or trust in a short term resolution of the current "negotiations" or the manoeuvring of the relevant parties - previous experience would prove that delay and procrastination always favours those in power and that typically is NOT a small, (relatively) cash strapped, offshore, publicly listed company thousands of miles away.

I am happy with my entry level (just below 4p) and do not worry about short term sp movements but I have to say that if there is no early resolution of the current outstanding issues I will be force into averaging down again in coming weeks or sitting on a long term paper loss. In addition it needs to be recognised (yet again) this resolution is NOT in the company's control. Despotic governments hold all the cards.....

So my attitude is to hang on, sit on your hands (in either direction) and enjoy what remains of the summer.

GLA

BG you would be 100% correct on that and yes I am aware that, historically, we have drilled at around the turn of the year. I am sure that if all the dominoes fall in the right order and at the right time then the BOD will be very keen to get the C1 drill down in December. That said, in the past and for all of those previous drills they have had the Rig on site well in advance of the Spud date....

I would like to think that the BOD are aware of the likely timings (on the dominoes) are are making preparations. Indeed this appointment might well be part of that preparation.

I only hope that if the December 2019 date is missed the BoD don't decide to keep up the historic tradition and decided to wait until December 2020!! ;0)

C1 spud before the end of the year? Maybe but to do so they would need to have the srill on site within the next few weeks in my view. October and November are very wet and getting a drill rig on site during those two months would be difficult. It would also take 6 -8 weeks to set up the drill once it is onsite so a Decembet rrill would mean the rig arriving no later than mid October.

Look at NT2 as the precedent.

Apologies BF I mote that you have listed farm out completion BUT that will have to happen in my view before we see a successful remediatioon of Kiliwani as until then we do not have sufficient funds to cover the costs - unless the cheap "foam" solution works and that, from all that has been said in the past has only a relatively low COS (10 - 15%).

GLA, back in a few days when I hope the sp will have continued it's recent climb :0)

I believe you have missed out one (or two in my view) vital piece (s) of that jigsaw BF and that or they (third on the list?) Would be "farm-out approval and completion". And, formally at least, that approval has not yet been granted.

Hopefully nothing more than a formality.

Lol and that link is meant to be proof is it? So if I went onto a new site and set my "nick" up as blackgold00 that would prove that you and I are the same person would it....? Have you not ever considered that it may have been in someone's interest to pose as "Tiptop" so further their own arguments or interests? How many times have you accused others of having multiple ID's over the years? It isn't much different is it? Who knows BG, it may even be you......?

But if that serves as proof for you that would explain why you have so have so consistently been duped by the misinformation that the AEX BoD have churned out over the years - you will be telling me next that the AEX list of FAQ's were also "proof" that there would be immediate progress on KN1 remediation, that they had more than enough funds to pay for it and that my reporting of the EGM was all a load of lies and misinformation too....?

Unfortunately it is virtually impossible to prove a negative as you well know but then so be it. If you will not accept my word for it suit yourself; I will leave you to your ignorance.....

Err NO BG he hasn"t.... how many times do I have to repeat that Bunbuster and Tiptop are NOat the same person....

Believe it or not but it is a fact.

No Tanzania I can confidently tell you that they are not back in AEX...... and Tiptop won't even have noticed as he is currently on holiday celebrating his wife's birthday :0)

Well for what it is worth I have had an order in the market for 1 million shares (fill or kill) at 7.75p off and on for the last 5 days and haven't been able to get it filled.... maybe that might explain the MM's stance...

I would agree with your comment about SNPC negotiations but not about booking a rig; if the BOD were tk announce ghat they had booked a rig but that the drill could not take place until January 2020 the sp would go down not up!! Indeed any significant time gap between booking and spudding will give people an opportunity to sell and buy back closer to the spud date.... and tou know that because it has happened several times before.