RE: Well Who Bought That 1 Million !!!!15 Oct 2019 20:17
Matherdj and Sambo in an attempt to answer your question I would remind you of the sp movement after the EGM, when we were just about where we are now in terms of future expectations; we knew of the up and coming C1 drill, we knew the Farm-Out terms and we were expecting remediation of KN1 - all, of course, post a license extension, anticipated invoice payment and in advance of the TPDC repealing their spurious "tax claim". In short the sp spiked on the day to circa 3.5p before falling back and closing the day at about 2.5p. Why should it be any different this time? What has changed?
All that has changed is that almost a lot of wasted time has passed under the bridge. Yes, we now have an "advance" on the Farm-Out payment and the second payment will be paid sooner but against that we have wasted a lot of cash in the intervening period. Do we know when C1 will spud? Do we know how long until we get the License Extension? Do we know how long between one and the other?
I expect the sp to spike on the license extension and farm out completion and fall in the lull between these two events and the C1 spud. Quite how that pans out will depend on the time in between the two. Will the C1 spud date be Dec or Jan? Let's hope so otherwise any spike on License Extension and Farm-Out may well largely evaporate before the C1 spud. Therefore it will be difficult to predict how high it will go until we get that spud date. Once getting that date most of the rise usually happens before the drill results and falls when they are announced. Will this happen on C1? I think the results will be extremely positive (assuming they do not screw it up again as with NT2) so those that sell in advance of the results may well live to regret it....
Those that want to sit tight until C1 drill results could well see 7 - 8p on "exceptional" results (100 Scuffs per day and/or Commercial Oil shows) but may miss a 5p peak if not. On the other hand those that choose to top slice are likely to see 3 or 4 mini spikes between now and then.
The only thing that is NOT factored in here and which may make a big difference is the eventual remediation of KN1 but where that might sit in the "pipeline" is anyone's guess.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
