Member Info for CrustyPete

Tanzania, there was never any remote chance of the shareholders rebutting the Farm - Out proposal.secondly the Farm-out proposal has made not one iota of difference to our current position, financially or otherwise and wont do until oy has completed so has had no impact so far on our corporate survival.

But this BB is the place for you to make defamatory, malicious and totally baseless accusations....

Yep, that is at least consistent.

So Tanzania, just to put you straight on one point. Neither Drewky nor anyone else has pursuaded me that the Farm Out was a good option at the time it was suggested - and certainly not on the terms offered - I still think we are being totally underpaid for the assets. However what has become evident is
that because of the seeming lack of political will in Tanzania and due to the BOD's total failure to deal with KN1 we now only have two options; accede to a Farm Out on fire sale terms or go bust.....

Neither of which I believe have anything to do with Drewky.

I would only be guessing BUT if my own experience is anything to go by it could be "account" or "platform" fees. Unwittingly I had a small number of AEX shares sold last week to cover some account fees for my SIPP account because I had not been aware that they were due... some "platforms" do this monthly.

"you might then just retract some of the sarcasm you send my way."

Maybe I will when you retract some of the baseless, defamatory accusations that you made at the time, Drewky. But I have seen absolutely no sense at contrition on that count.

Well I have to admit that I never thought I would see the sp back down at these levels the last time they hit 6.6p I bought a fair few and managed to nearly "triple" my money.

It would be rude not to have another go and so have bought back in - in a small way of course ;0)

GLA

As I stated on 11th January... when you above all others was stating that AEX were actively progressing towards perforating the lower zone, were fully funded for remediation and had all necessary approvals; oh and of course that I was lying, manipulative and deliberately negative. Do you still maintain that now Drewky?

"why, if the company has more than sufficient cash to proceed with the remediation work and don't need any approvals to do so, why oh why, have they not done so long before now?"

Why a rhetorical question? Well because I can give you the answers.

1) AEX currently has very little cash and cannot be sure when the next tranche of cash is going to arrive. They are contingent on deliveries that are beyond the BoD's control.

2) Because of the lack of operational activity in Tanzania over the last two years there are no service companies nor any equipment in the country and consequently getting resource and equipment into the country is unusually expensive right now.

3) Most importantly even if they did do the "soaking" and perforation now, without the approvals in place they run the risk of having to wait months before being able to "connect" to the GPP; if so they would have to "shut-in" the well yet again. This would inevitably come with increase risks; the well would fill with water, they may run the risk of damage to the bore and such things as the valve sticking may reoccur. Hence they could have to pay to do this all over again at some future point.

4) Because even if they did all of the above and connected to the GPP with the TPDC claim hanging over their head there is still no guarantee that they would get paid for any gas that they produce nor get paid on outstanding invoices.

5) The very fact that KN1 is not producing is about the only piece of leverage that AEX still have. JB has stated in the past that if they had there own way they might well have abandoned it by now but that (you would never know it) the TPDC are keen for it to produce anything as long as it is the minimum to keep Songo Songo GPP operating (July AGM)

In summary it is in AEX's interests keep this on the back burner until AEX has guarantee of future source of cash"

Maybe some will now accept that what I was saying both before and after the EGM was NOT the machiavelian machinations of some one looking to pervert the truth for their own benefit, or manipulate the market, or engineer a lower entry point..... with the benefit of hindsight some might now accept that it was all true. And that those relying on the one line answers provided in FAQ's as the "reality" were predictably naive.

".....he company would and should be reluctant to spend what little it has in the coffers while they are not paying up, it would be silly to take that risk until this is sorted."

I absolutely agree Drewky and have been saying so when all around kept telling everyone that they had sufficient to pay for Kiliwani remediation and that work was actually underway (how ridiculous that assertion now looks); well even if that was true (it wasn't) it does not mean to say that they would have chosen to spend it when they did not know where, or more appropriately when, the next pound (dollar) was coming from and no guarantee that remediation would work.

"If there is to be a revision of the Kiliwani PSA terms it would be impossible to evaluate the commerciality of the cost of remediation?"

As CP also suggested just a few days ago...

You are correct Drewky there is nothing in that article that specifically pinpoints Aminex as a culprit but it would also be complacent to assume that they are totally innocent too. Is it just a coincidence that the TPDC are suggesting that Ntorya partners owe them circa six million dollars....? I suggest that the two things are not totally unconnected.

Might this not also be (partly) behind the lack of progress on KN1? If there is to be a revision of the Kiliwani PSA terms it would be impossible to evaluate the commerciality of the cost of remediation?

Page 7.

Kiliwani North 1 Operations:

"Pending government approvals, ...."

Oh how I laughed! :0) And to think about the abuse I got when I reported this back from the EGM! No doubt I am still lying, or deliberately twisting the (then) CEO's words to suit my own agenda or simply looking to engineer a lower re entry price, or some such similar bollocks......

Actually I with matherdj, I do not see anything negative in the presentation, there is nothing there that we did not already know and some reasons for optimism.

I still fully expect some material developments over the next few weeks. But then my optimism has been somewhat misplaced over the last two / three weeks as I had expected the sp to hold at a higher level than it is today.

GLA

"You would have though the BOD would have been the first to know?"

Really? I do not think that is an assumption that you could make with any confidence whatsoever..... Why would the authorities let anyone know that they were under scrutiny; particularly the Tanzanian authorities.

I have seen this CP, yes and agree that "commerciality" is a critical factor in AEX decision to "throw good money after bad" however the issues that this article refers to were NOT even a consideration in 2017 or H1 2018 so cannot have been the reasons that AEX did nothing about KN1 at that time.... nor did these considerations stop the AEX BoD from hiring Schlumberger to correct the faulty valve. Nor would these issues have been even a factor all the time that AEX had the TPDC claim hanging over them, which means that they are at risk of not getting paid irrespective of what the Govt do regarding the PSA.

So, in short I do not think these ongoing issues would have contributed too much. But ho hum. It is all water under the bridge now; the damage has long since been done.

Well I am certainly not going to argue your first point Drewky. You may remember me telling you that at one AGM it was actually suggested to me (ironically) that if it wasn't for the TPDC's insistence the AEX BoD would probably have chosen to "plug" KN1 (which with hindsight and for different reasons is pretty much what has happened anyway). With that, a lack of cash and a total dearth of services inside Tanzania I have never been too expectant that anything would happen with KN1 - and were it not for our total reliance on KN1 for any form of income would probably have been advocating concentrating of Kiliwani South...

Anyway I just wanted to say to anyone interested that, for the first time in four years, this year I will not be going to the AGM. With Keith Phair and Jay B absent I am not at all confident that I will get to speak to anyone who will give anyone any information over and above that being presented to the audience and during Q&A.

I do expect the presentation to be both illuminating and influential (for the sp) but I can read those without spending time (that I can ill afford right now) and money on traveling to Dublin.

It has been suggested to me that all the time AEX were on the hook for 75% of FFD costs of Ntorya no-one was ever going to invest in a diversification programme because they were afraid that any money invested in AEX would be swallowed up by Ntorya costs. Now that they are fully carried to FFD that is no longer a risk.

Whilst his makes sense it rings a bit "hollow" if they had diversified outside of Tanzania between the ARA investment and the decision to apply for the 2 year development license then they would not have needed outside investment and, indeed, after NT2 the company could have raised as much money as they needed as shareholders would have been happy to stump up. (Did ARA have any influence in how their investment was spent?) Unfortunately that was when Kiliwani issues started to become evident. It is the BoD's inability to tackle these KN1 issues that compounded what was otherwise a manageable situation, in my view. And that is precisely why they supposedly hired Aaron Le Blanc; his sole focus at that time (pre Dublin AGM in 2017) was to address the Kiliwani issues....

That now seems almost a lifetime ago..... :0(

I have some sympathy with your view Drewky but also with Hardnose. It is true that the Tanzanian authorities are the primary cause of our problems in Tanzania (though we have done ourselves absolutely no favours with our "strategy" at Kiliwani) BUT that is exactly why the BoD should have used the opportunities that they have had in the past to reduce the concentration risk that AEX have in Tanzania. We have for too long been a "one trick pony", with "all our eggs in one basket" and THAT cannot be blamed on the Tanzanian Govt.

The BoD have spoken about diversification on many occasions (even before ARA buy in) but we have seen no evidence that these intentions were ever more than a "pipe dream". We are now reaping the rewards of not spending some of the cash we once had, when we had the chance..... And there is no excuse for suggesting that it is the Tanzanian authorities fault for relying on them to give us our License extension. Too much water had already passed under the bridge; we had lost our chance for diversification long before then.

Do you seriously think it would make any difference who was in charge?! Anyone who thought that the H1 project would proceed any faster than Kiliwani or Ntorya was suffering from delusions....

This is Tanzania after all.

"I'm sure that the company could have done more to get the government to get its act together. " Really?!

And so too then could Orca, M&P, Dodsal, Shell, Exxon, Mobil, Ophir and many more but NO, they haven't..... Indeed the very last time that anyone drilled a new well in Tanzania was NT2 in Feb 2017 and no-one has seen a license extension since well before even that.

So why Hawkspear do you think that little old Aminex should have had any more success than anyone else....?

No Hawkspear the reality is that NO-ONE has been able to get the Tanzanian Authorities to move one iota and it has nothing whatsoever to do with AEX, APT, Zubair's or anyone else's lack of effort or attention.... (even the TPDC).

Lol, touche Kejoglo!

Actually he was on his way to GAM.....