Member Info for CrustyPete

Indeed they could but then thete is nothing to say until that process has been completed. So, until it has we will wait methinks?

Booking the drill is a bit like buying a lottery ticket;; important part of the process but inconsequential until the time that the balls are about to be drawn :0)

Important yes but "price sensitive"? Not if the spud date is still 6 months away?!

Well personally I think selection of a rig is neither material nor price sensitive. Until a date has been set for the spud date that is, at which point it is potentially very price sensituve.

But surely if yhe news that is being "stockpiled" is mayerial news that is "price sensitive" the Board have an overriding imperative under LSE rules to release the news to the market? Which surely means that either they are breaking LSE rules or that the news is not material or price sensitive....?

FWIW Mike I do think that the sp decline has been overdone (though predictable) and may even drop further of we have one or more delays to the farm-out extension. And it is NOT beyond the realms of possibility that if the delay goes on for another 6 months or more we could well have run out of money by the time the license extension comes to our rescue and if that happens there is no telling what the sp will be.....? The MC will be so low that raising capital will be extremely problematical. Which just goes to show how shortsighted it was of our BoD NOT to remediate KN1 whilst we still had the money to do so...

That said if we can avoid that scenario, with an extension and a successful C1 drill we could see a good rise from current levels. But, and I stress only in my view, not back to the 7.5p levels we managed after NT2 and when we still owned 75% of Ntorya rather than a soon to be 25%. Well certainly not before the income from Ntorya starts to flow and even then only if it comes in at the top end of suggested estimates. And by that time I will no longer be a shareholder here in the quantities that I currently am.

So NO Tanzania I think it now obvious that I have NOT "and slowly but agonisingly slowly Crusty has come to realise that the BOD were reasonable people caught out by a gas source of revenue failing....."

Failing due to their own incompetence and inability to manage the scenario in the best interests of their shareholders Tanzania - well, all except their majority shareholder....

reproach :0)

"The truth is the drying up of our revenue from KN1 was a huge blow for us all to the point where I was more than just upset, more like depressed."

You and me both and you may remember my stating as early as 2017 that the KN1 issues were AEX's "Achilles heel" and needing resolving imminently

But Tanzania do you not believe that the BoD are in the slightest bit responsible for the total failure to resolve and remediate the abject failure that is Kiliwani ? I was at the AGM in Dublin (as several others were by the way) in May 2017 when we were told that a) they had been aware of the problem for over 4 months b) the problem had been identified and a solution determined c) the position was resolvable without much problem and in short order d) at minimal cost e) was their "biggest priority" f) was principally the reason for Aaron Le Blanc being brought on board (along with the NT3 drill !!)

So Tanzania what happened? Were we being fed a bunch of lies? Were they incompetent and did not know what they were talking about? Did they determine that NT3 was "more important? Did they not realise that NT3 (C1 as it became) was going to require future funding or an operational partner? Or did they decide that they would wait to raise funds until we had no income from KN1, no reserves of cash, a totally unjustifiable increase the salary budget (over 100%) at a time when the income was drying up and at a time when the Tanzanian Govt was about to cause the industry to down tools.... Oh and when were they going to explain to their shareholders what the hell was going on?

But you believe that the BOD are not at all responsible for any of this, no? That they could not see this coming? They could not see the sense in raising the capital when it was easily available and securing our only regular income stream from Kiliwani - when many on this BB could see it a a mile off.... oh, by the way Tanzania actually said so to the BoD at the Dublin AGM in May 2017.

Moreover whilst this was happening Tanzania we were delivered RNS after RNS of propaganda, obfuscation and disinformation - akin to that ridiculous FAQ that was so conclusively proven to be a total sham.

But if you cannot see this then there is little point continuing the conversation. We will simply have to differ BUT please do not drone on and on about you were right and I was wrong in not immediately seeing the "obvious" benefits or need of a Farm Out when it was first announced in 2018.... There would have been no obvious need for it if the BoD had not driven us into such an untenable position that we had no "hand to play" by the time we were forced into the hands of our "partners" to get "shafted"...

But you would maintain that this state of affairs in no way the fault of the Directors that we pay to look after our interests Tanzania....?

Good gracious me whatever happened to "accountability"...? I wish you were my employer Tanzania, I could get away with anything without fear of

Oh and one more thing Tanzania you argue that no ".....other partner would have the same influence as Zubair backed by the Omani's. "

So where oh where or what has that enormous Omani influence gained us so far eh? NOWHERE and NOTHING is the answer.... because as I have suggested for many many months the events that have plagued Aminex for over two years are not peculiar to them alone and are far larger than the Omanis are able to influence. And once these are complete and out of the way the hurdles will disappear and the influence of the Omanis will not matter one jot.

Dear oh dear Tanzania, you keep flogging the same old dead horse... so let me ask you a question. Why oh why did the BoD wait until we were up **** creek without a paddle before deciding to run to the Omani's for money? Why did they not so so after NT2 drill with a Market Cap of £250 million when it would have been easy to raise money? They would have received shareholder backing for a 20% dilution and raised £50 million - considerably more than they are raising from selling off 66% of the largest, most valuable and lucrative revenue earner that we own.

And yes Tanzania we were always going to have to get a partner (operational or financial) to assist with the Full Field Development of Ntorya BUT had the BoD had any foresight or imagination we would have had MORE than enough money to get through to C1 drill and with plenty in reserve. Had we completed the KN1 remediation whilst we still had plenty of money we would not now have to have put everything on hold whilst awaiting further cash flow.....

So yes Jodo you and I am on a very similar wavelength and so too CP. I have long argued that despite the lip service that the BoD played with the FAQ's (which proved to be total misinformation by the way) was nonsense and that whilst they may have argued that they had sufficient to complete KN1 remediation they in fact could never afford to spend it! Not until we had a license extension and the farm-out because had they done so they would now have NO MONEY and no guarantee of getting paid all the time the TPDC are refusing to honour payments.
______________
Have you noticed Tanzania that the only one of the BoD members that got us into this position are still taking a wage from the AEX coffers and he happens to be the Finance Director.

But hey Tanzania you keep up your unerringly apologetic stance for the actions (or inactions) of our erstwhile BoD members but I am afraid to say that you haven't fooled anyone.

NO Tanzania how many times do I have to tell you the same thing?! It was NOT Drewky nor cp nor anyone else that persuaded me to drop my opposition to the farm-out - they were both (or at least Drewky) telling us all what a fantastic deal it was and that we should be congratulating the management for doing a wonderful job! I have never have been nor ever will be a supporter of that view - indeed I still maintain that we were totally screwed on the price and did not get fair value - however as time has since proven without a farm-out we would now be totally buggered, without a proverbial pot to **** in with no choices of alternative funding nor chances of surviving; that has nothing to do with Drewky or CP simply the awful management (of Kiliwani in particular) and the lack of foresight that drove us to the Omanis with a begging bowl with the consequnetial destruction of shareholder value.......

So please do not keep plugging the ridiculous line that Drewky has persuaded me of anything - he hasn't....... the EGM marked my change of heart, when I recognised that without it and with the continued intransigence of the Tanzanian Govt we would now be totally f**ked

That would surely depend on how bad the news was. If it was really bad, or significant enough to adversely affect the Sale price I would say nothing; until I had sold up!! :0)

It is generally accepted that AAOG will be tapping in to the same teservoir that many of our offshore neighbours already "draining" at a consideranly increased cost to our own. is there a rwal chance that they , with far deeper pckets than our own, ate attempting to "stimey" our attempts to deplete that shated resource? Little old AAOG sicking the life out of that same basin that they have ploughed many millions into developing?

Maybe a joint venture or a buyout is the only compromise that suits all parties?

CP I think that "Should it be required" refers to beyond the 31st October....

Apologies one and all "That said the anticipated drill dates may NOT be dependent on the "drill dates" of course should have read "That said the anticipated drill dates may NOT be dependent on the "date of License Extension"....

Silly me.

Agreed matherdj, the fact that the long stop date has already been pushed out twice goes to prove that the two events are totally unconnected; that together with Solo's EOY statement about C1 drill now being anticipated in H1 2020 gives me no great expectation that we will get that License Extension anytime soon. Even a License Extension in, say, October could realistically allow for a drill in December....

That said the anticipated drill dates may NOT be dependent on the "drill dates"; remember that we are sharing the drilling rig with another party and that party may simply have planned to use the drill over the intervening period.

I wouldn't disagree with much of what you say Edgar and indeed agree with most of it however I must point out that your assertion that "We are in effect in the same spot (re Ntorya) as we were when the N2 results were announced." Is very far from the case. Just after Ntorya we "owned" 75% of the Ruvuma PSA now (assuming successful completion) we now only own 25%; even the compensation of $5m and $35 m of credit hardly compensates for the loss of 50% of the potential upside. That will ensure that we do not get a similar rise to 7p anytime soon.....

I would have to agree with John after the release of Solo's EOY results on Friday. The most telling quote there for me (in it's read across for Aminex) was the "Current expectation is that drilling of Chikumbi-1 well scheduled for H1 2020"

What does that quote infer for the License Extension? Surely they would be looking for a December drill date if the License Extension was anticipated before the end of July...?

I am back on "HOLD".

"End 2017 Swala were to buy 40% of PAET for $130M."

Yes indeed Mick but that was before the APT / AEX farm-out - now they know that $130 million was way above the "market".....! The AEX / APT deal has ruined it for everyone else now ;0)