Member Info for CrustyPete

It goes without saying that the sp will move upwards as long as the combined value and volume of Buys exceeds those on the other side. I am confident that will eventually become an inevitability, however the question is which piece of Data, as you put it, or combination of data will be required to stimulate that Buyside momentum and, secondly, when will we see it? All rhetorical questions of course.

Good night all and good luck.

That is certainly one potential scenario but also PhilG there is the possibility that even with good news Oliveira decides to sell into any post RNS rise and, consequently, that rise is nipped in the bud or fizzles out very quickly. I would hope though that the combined effect of the shorters closing their positions and both II's and PI's buying in on the "proof of concept" news releases any Oliveira sales would be more than offset. That said, a potential sale of 12m shares needs a lot of offsetting particularly if "short termers" and "traders" are also adding to the sales by taking short term profits.

"One things for sure, this will be going up next year. SP this time next year 7-10p" Well I am sure that we can take that as "gospel" then PoC?! But then weren't you suggesting as far back as April that we should have seen well over 1p by now? But then that is the thing about "predictions" - they cannot all be right. Who knows maybe next year will be your year?

7 - 10p by next December? That is certainly brave and in my view more than a little optimistic. Moreover I suspect that by "this time next year" the sp will be well past its peak.... it may well have hit 7+p intra year but I doubt that it will sustain it until December.

Maybe with the New Year coming around it will soon be time for 2022 predictions? That should be fun ;0)

There's the "rub" no-one is likely to know and, all the time there are a potential 12 million shares that may come back to the market the Shorters are in the box seat.... The only positive from my perspective is that the day will come when that drip, drip, drip of Oliveira's shares is staunched, the "shorters" will take a bath and the sp will start an inexorable rise. Any delay only allows me (and others) to pick up cheap shares and stockpile a good tranche of shares before that rise begins.

I would not be at all unhappy for the current volatility and low share price to continue for a few more weeks since I can accumulate a significant increase in holding over that period as other stock sales mature. That sp rise is not a question of "if" but only a question of "when", in my opinion, the longer I have to accumulate a war chest the better.

I would broadly agree with your assessment Porky, I know a lot of people like trading this share but everything you point to in your post (and many other things to) underline why this is a long term play. Hence the reason that, whilst I recognise that the volatility here offers plenty of opportunity to make a short term turn I am not interested in trading and simply use any dips to add to my holding. If we don't get any news between now and Xmas I see considerable opportunity here to add more before the new year when I am firmly convinced we will get a series of material and positive sp catalysts.

Well let's not start counting chickens here - you only have to look back to Thursday and Friday of last week to see that today's rise is not guaranteed to last. The only thing that is likely to cause a sustained sp rise is material news; without news this could every easily be another of very many, recent false dawns.

If we are to get news it needs to be this week or next otherwise there is the serious risk that it will go without notice in the an Xmas "haze"....

In principle CaptJ yes they should "come back into the account" - that is allowable under ISA rules but I would suggest that you check the small print on the particular ISA that you own; whilst ISA rules would allow it, individual ISA providers may have different Trems and Conditions.

I would not argue with that at all and agree that it would be an interesting development but that is pure Algo Strategy and I would struggle to characterise that as getting "****ier".... That is purely a risk on risk off trading tactic and one that may indeed have been in place for a considerable period already.

And sharcus, yes a "man" creates the Algo's but the greatest reason for implementing an Algo strategy is to eliminate the "emotive" element of trading - that and to minimise latency.

"Shorts are getting ****ier...." - since when do Algo's have emotions?

Whilst the qualification criteria will vary (typically £50m to £250m for GBP stocks), a company with a £100m valuation would be considered to be a "micro-cap" stock, whereas say a company valued at £300m would still be considered a "small-cap" stock (£250m - £2bn or the bottom 20% of shares by Market Cap). Consequently there are very, very few Funds that would be allowed under their Trust Deeds to invest in such companies; even Smaller Companies Funds would often be precluded from investing in a company so small. So it is likely to be only specialist Biomedical, Healthcare or Ultra/Micro Cap Company Funds that would be free to invest in a company of this size; moreover FCA rules actually limit the proportion of a given fund's assets that can go into a single investment (if it is a "regulated" fund). Adding all this together the conclusion would have to be that only a very small %age of the total available investment Funds looking for a home would be targeting 4D Pharma.

That £250k related to the use of compression to "force" the gas to the surface; it proved to be grossly underestimated, with the final estimated cost of the project eventually running to over £750k which even then wasn't guaranteed to succeed.

Needless to say that "strategy" has been totally superseded with the new re-perforation strategy.

Exactly my point.

That said if AEX are not capable of executing that work programme without a JV or additional capital will the TPDC approve it? I suspect they would but having that JV "in the bag" would no doubt help the process methinks?

Indeed PoC, the point being that AEX will not receive approval for "gas production" simply for the work programme and maybe agreement for a reduction in pressures for receipt of the gas at SS GPP?

The issue that I would like confirmation of is whether the AEX Bod actually see themselves as future operator of Kiliwani at all...? It would be good to hear this, officially, one way or the other. Are they actually capable of completing the work programme without a JV partner, even if they have sufficient cash?

For Gas production? Do bear in mind that there is no guarantee that the proposed remediation and work programme will actually work.

But then again! :0)

So maybe just the one License after all? It will be interesting to see how it pans out.

Bye for now GLA.

I am not saying it was easily achieved?!?

Agreed BG it was always the previous board's intention of "selling off" the deep water element of the Nyuni License and then merging the "inshore" elements with Kiliwani into one license. That said they always admitted that this was totally reliant on TPDC complicity in that manoeuvre. So yes, in principle whether one License or two the strategy would almost certainly to treat them as one. But the sentiment "without a crippling dilution of the asset" still holds true in my view.

I think that comes under the bracket of "without a crippling dilution of the asset".... ;0)

Nyuni? Actually is is worth ZERO on the balance sheet and a million miles from monetisation so a farm-out there is broadly neutral but farm-out of Kiliwani? It would surely depend on the terms? Hopefully not quite as derisory and punitive as Ruvuma?

Apologies - one potential addition: successful remediation of KN1 without crippling dilution of the asset.

Absolutely PoC that CH1 drill will be an exciting time and hence I am sure will have a significant impact on the Market Cap etc

At the risk of repetition it is the drill and maybe (and to a limited extent) the Seismic results that will be the only catalysts to this SP over the next 9+ months (and the last 9 months for that matter).