Member Info for CrustyPete

"Why would he stop selling now when he hasn't all this time?"

When else have we been trading at these levels within the last 18 months?!

But Sang, I cannot see Oliveira continuing to sell at a price below 50p can you? So it would be the shorters only that take it there...?

I share your concern here McSquares - it seems that there is nothing to stop the "shorters" making hay here? I cannot see anything that will turn the momentum positive anytime soon.... "take the trade " or "rethink your holding"? I believe in the trade but will avoid trying to catch the falling knife; I will just be sitting on my hands and keeping my powder dry for the New Year in the hope that by doing so I can get in at close to the bottom and reduce my average as far as is humanly possible.

Nothing earth shattering but all broadly positive; the principle takeaway for me is appears that we have seen the last of the news for this year. And, for me at least that is good news in itself as it offers more time to stock up ;0)

I take your point McSquares but I am afraid to say that the likelihood of Oliviera ever showing his hand is negligible, indeed the whole industry relies upon their keeping their hand close to their chest, "playing the market" with information or indeed misinformation is just "not done"; moreover showing it would allow others to use that information for their own advantage.

So I am sorry to say that whilst you or I might adopt the policy you expound below the likelihood of Ocean C doing so are remote in the extreme.

Even if he has, why would he announce it?

If the IBS RNS from last week failed to make a material and sustained impact on the market I seriously doubt that this most recent RNS will; unfortunately...

I think it would be sensible and prudent for people to try and put the current Oliveira issues into perspective. Firstly Oliveira is a long way through his sell off (even if he is looking to offload everything) and secondly the Oliveira issues are nothing by comparison to the much larger Woodford issues of 18 months ago and yet since then the share price has been as high as 180+p. And of course in the intervening period we have had a Nasdaq listing (greater liquidity and market) and considerable progress on many fronts. Many were bailing out on the way down during the Woodford debacle and probably regret doing so - I believe that the same will be true on this occasion. Yes the Oliveira issues will keep the sp subdued for a while but that downward pressure will inevitably lift at some, not too distant, future date and in the meantime it allows people to load up at fire sale prices - just as I and many others were doing post Woodford.

Have a great weekend all.

Oh and sorry Tanz just to be clear, I don't expect an answer. Like PoC it would require you to actually understand rather deeper issues than the totally superficial ones that you seem to focus on ; no doubt you will rely on the "scoring" as the totally specious deflection rather than address the underlying question?

So perhaps Tanzania you can offer a suggestion to my underlying question, which PoC yet has even to understand yet alone address, which is, essentially, why would ARA (not APT by the way) consider why AEX continue to be their "long term vehicle for East African O&G Exploration and Development" if AEX no longer consider themselves to be "operators" in that environment? What has AEX got to offer that ARA themselves could not do themselves directly as minority participants in any future enterprise?

You just really don't get it do you PoC....? You cannot even grasp the point of the conversation POC, so no surprise that you cannot even articulate a meaningful response...

But hey why am I not surprised.

Exactly BG, exactly. So either it is a temporary "strategy" or ARA's position as a cornerstone investor might itself only be temporary.....?

So that addresses one aspect of my post but totally misses the fundamental point of it - what is your view on how that might impact our relationship with ARA then PoC?

Couldn't agree more Ed.

Today is a very good day.

Do bear in mind that between Bronte and Renaissance they are likely to hold less than 1.8 million shares but Oliveira holds circa 12 million. If he decides to sell into this news it will be sometime before any buying momentum or "short closing" soaks that lot up. As I said only yesterday

"....there is the possibility that even with good news Oliveira decides to sell into any post RNS rise and, consequently, that rise is nipped in the bud or fizzles out very quickly"

I would hope and expect that this news generates sufficient buying interest to more than cover the above but it will need to be considerable to do so and even if it does I do think that any rise will be attenuated by those Oliveira sales.

BG , I am only speculating but my suggestion is that this "focus on a non-operating strategy" is simply a recognition of their somewhat straitened circumstances rather than a long term strategy. The fact is, they have had to significantly cut down on fixed costs to avoid going tits up and that means they have had to get rid of all their operational and technical staff; they couldn't "operate" if they wanted to.

However this comes back to something I posted a week or two ago; AEX are supposedly (at least unofficially) ARA's "vehicle" for long term Oil and Gas Exploration and Development in East Africa and that to my mind means that they are ARA's "bridgehead" into new Exploration and Appraisal activity in the region. For AEX to be able to tender for licences and concessions in the region they would need to be a capable of acting as Operators of any such license. If they are suggesting that they no longer see themselves as future operators of any licences I cannot see how they would be of any use whatsoever to ARA in their capacity as a long term "vehicle". How can you fulfill any useful function as that "vehicle" if you are nothing but a minority shareholder of a concession/license with no operational control? I suggest that a "portflio investment" company is of little use to ARA....

If we ever get invited back to an AGM, this would be my first question to the Board

Any thoughts?

This is, of course, really positive news. Just think how much better it could get with positive FDA feedback.

Yes, I am aware of that but rather hope the policy is not irreversible. I also am a little disappointed that such a policy decision can be taken so "under the radar". When were shareholders asked about that decision? One of the drawbacks of not holding face to face AGM's I suppose.

Personally I would rather they raised the capital in the market with a rights issue that allowed PI's to participate thereby allowing us to retain our majority position "operatorship" of Kiliwani and Nyuni. I would prefer not to see our "ownership" of those concessions diluted.

The above presupposes that AEX the Board and shareholders do decide that they want to remain "owner/operators" - I have already stated that it would be my preference.

BG all I am alluding to BG is the influx of "hot money" and the "rainbow chasers" that will inevitably occur at the time of the CH1 spud. Whatever level the sp reaches during the spud will not be maintained post the drill results as most of that hot money will then disappear; what level it will settle at post spud will depend on many things, as we have previously discussed but, and whilst I agree it is not inevitable, I am totally convinced that the sp will be lower in December than at the peak of the spud of the drill results. How many of those short termers will be holding all the way to production? How many long termers will sit on their hands post drill having seen what happened with NT2? The only thing that might keep them invested is if there is a CH2 announced as a consequence of the drill results - another "back to back drill". And how many newcomers, PI's or II's, will be buying immediately after the drill results bearing in mind that production is still circa 2 years away?

I fully recognise that the Company's situation has changed immeasurably but the nature and instincts of investors and traders haven't.

One other thing that has not been mentioned either is the (strong, in my mind) possibility that AEX will use the increase in market cap post CH1 drill to go to market for a Fund Raise; they missed that trick after NT2 and I doubt they would make that same mistake again.