Member Info for CrustyPete

FWIW one and all Morningstar have reassessed their "fair value estimate" after yesterday's RNS and their figure for "fair value" is 1.94p.....

I did not see when it changed but just noticed that the Morningstar fair value estimate now sits at 6.06p - a rise from circa 5.9p when I last noticed it a few days ago....

Every little helps.

I would agree with you on the ARA presentation (very informative) but your comment that "i get the feeling the development license is not too far away." is just guesswork BG. Your feeling it may be but that is that any more valid than someone whose feeling is that it will be another 6 months? NO! And no past experience would give any cause to validate that feeling - so actually, yes, just blind faith.

Deltalo ow many times have you said something similar only today? 3, 4, 5? What is the point?! It achieves nothing and is more often than not just plain wrong. Give it up man.

Aminex BG? Is that an expression of blind faith superseding experience and common sense?

If it were to be a duster now would be a good time to go for a capital raise!! Not after the disaster as in Tai3...

Indeed so RJ.

Maybe not noon but certainly by COP - the MM's will want to fleece the FOMO brigade and the "wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend brigade". They will get them all back a lot cheaper on Monday if / when there is no RNS.

Accepted sharehead.

My view though is that the progress for AEX and ARA for the next 5 years is already mapped out in line with the Ntorya development programme and, soon to be issued 25 Dev license. The 140 scuffs per day production for the next 8 well programme (the only well that AEX are funded for by the way) may alter somewhat but nothing that will move the dial . That in itself will fuel our sp growth for the next few years - over that time horizon the upgrade in GIIP beyond is of little consequence until a exploration and appraisal plan for those areas outside of Ntorya has been mapped out.

Yes you might find analogies within the industry but no direct comparisons because the influencing factors for AEX are very peculiar to Tanzania and come with a totally different back story; the delays experienced here over the last 15 years are fairly unique and very much influence the thinking of potential investors.

All my own views of course and you are fully entitled to " take whatever view you wish" ;0)

"you can take whatever view you wish"

Thank you for your permission sharehead, maybe I will just do that.

"slowly over time" - hurrah! Yes sharehead as the time to monetisation reduces, greater value is gradually attached to the assets; so 10 -15 years perhaps? The point being no-one currently knows when that is and until they do the value of those ex-Ntorya assets is totally unquantifiable.

GSA - signed. Yes indeed a big tick in the box!! And not before itme.

Resources- proved up and then massively upgraded. Only NT1 & NT2 resources have been proven up. CH1 still on the back burner.

Pipeline- slow progress but connecting to existing facilities- which is a massive plus. Just been put back by another 6 months. How many times has this been deferred? How many more times?

Development agreement- due - for Ntorya only.

My point being that this does nothing to give any certainty over timelines, even for Ntorya, let alone beyond and until there is some the resource continues to remain gas in the ground. The sp is a reflection of people's confidence, or lack of it, that there is a finite timeline for these events to be delivered and one that they can trust. Only then can anyone quantify the "value" of their investment.

So what is the issue then sharehead? Why did a doubling of GIIP not result in a pro-rata increase in the "value" of the company?

Answer: because it is nothing more than an estimate, extracting gas involves operation risk, political risk, market risk, costs of exploration and appraisal, the time value of money/ high interest rates, opportunity cost AND all of these increase significantly with the "time to market" element; if it is going to take 10 years to monetise the asset those same risks are far greater than they are if it it only a two year time horizon. One of Aminex's problems has always been that it has been impossible to determine what that time line is! Everything happens on the "never-never". Monetising those assets is so distant a prospect that is has next to no material value.

I can see your thinking on the offtake agreement RJ but you also have to consider that there is an ongoing cost to the off-take process that the partner will have to fund; they will not do that for free.

Oh and RJ it is not "official" until there is an RNS.

That is your opinion RJ and you are welcome to it - I will believe it when I see the numbers. I am very optimistic as you know BUT to continually suggest to all and sundry that this is a "slam dunk" is just reckless.

4.7% is considerably lower than 10%. If the flow of the 4.7% is no greater than the seepage at 10.00% you would be better advised simply to collect the seepage and save money on drilling, risk and everything else. But self evidently that is not a commercial option otherwise someone would be doing it! So there is no guarantee that 4.7% will be "commercial"; are they going to conclude an off-take agreement for the Helium if they can only collect 10 litres a year?

That off take arrangement is unlikely to be on a loan basis in my view as, once the loan is paid off, how does the OFF-TAKE partner continue to get paid? Fee? Unlikely in my view, income share is the most likely answer and that is "dilution" by any other name. Would you agree an income share before you know what the likely income is? Mmmmm.

And what has it done for the sp so far? Not a lot. And nor will it until they can monetise it.

Lot's that we do not yet know which are likely to inform the next course of action - we know of the 4.7% a figure revealed to us in the RNS and, whilst they know the flow rates and pressures associated with it, have chosen not to reveal them. Yes they have used the term "commercial" and "discovery" but that has yet to be made official and I think will be determined by the "modelling" that they are currently in the process of completing. 4.7% Helium concentration sounds great but if it is seeping out of the ground slower than a wet fart, how do you commercialise that? They have identified Helium "seepage" on the acreage at over 10% - so maybe there will be a plan "C"...?

Do bear in mind that 50% of the "resource" is outside of the the Ntorya area, the 25 year Development License only applies to Ntorya, they will need to drill appraisal wells to prove up the £D assumptions outside of Ntorya and AEX free carry only covers the 8 planned wells for the Ntorya fan basin - any increase in Ntorya well drill programme AEX will have to fund themselves; yes they will have income coming in at some point in the future . Conclusion, whilst the recent upgrade in GIIP is great news in the long term, it is unlikely to have a major impact on SP at this stage in my view and it could well be a long time before there is any likelihood of appraising, let alone monetising the assets outside of Ntorya - and we all know how long that has taken (taking) for that to happen.