RE: PROBABLYLARGEST ONSHORE GAS DICOVERY IN EAST AFRICA4 Mar 2024 11:43
SQ320, I made my views on this clear the other day and I agree with you to a point - the GIIP increase is fantastic but much of that resource is outside of the Ntorya fan basin AND the scope of the 25 year Development License that attaches to it. Therefore I belive that the increase in GIIP changes very little for the foreseeable future the priority will be to execute the current 8 well drill programme to get the 140 scuffs per day of gas flowing -t here may b a revision of the plan to a point after the GIIP revision and ARA's presentation of last week but ultimately that will not materially alter the short to medium term objectives. Consequently I disagree with you regarding fund raising because AEX is already carried for that work programme and I do not see there being any material additional development work being done until way down the line and after the income form Nt1, Nt2 and Ch1 (fingers crossed) is on tap and we are carried for the next 5 drills anyway. If there was to be parallel dev work outside of that then yes, it would need funding but that is a long way off, AEX would have income, the MC would be a lot higher than now and so any fund raise and consequent dilutioj would be more than manageable.
I agree with you also about AEX's usefulness to ARA / APT and that is around the ability to fund and carry the risk for the exploration and appraisal of future prospects and that requires AEX to be the "operator" - that is when AEX's ability to fund dev is important - it is too late now for Ntorya and even Ruvuma ARA will always be funding 75% of that(TPDC aside) henceforth so AEX's contribution is largely immaterial.