Member Info for CrustyPete

Well updownstream apart from the choice of what to spend the money on I am very much in your camp. We were having a discussion on here over the last few days about attracting II into AEX and there are a multitude of reasons why they would not to get involved currently - they will need to see a few more boxes ticked first before that happens and not just the 25yr Dev License - that is why the delay to the pipeline is so disappointing; it no doubt causes some to question the Tanzanian authorities intent (I don't doubt that, personally) and, far more importantly, their ability to follow through on their promises. Reference the LNG link that edgar posted earlier.

sharehead, this is my opinion.

Yes BG I would have agreed with you; I only used 20% because at last year's AGM 20% was the figure used in any discussion about the back-in rights. RJ was that your recollection too?

It would also then put them on the hook for funding their share of the dev costs win and we know don't we that they haven't got a pot to p155 in - and they have the pipeline to fund and we already know what has been stated in that regard ($ versus T shillings etc).

Might this be behind the delays? If so is there a solution to it? Take it out of future incomes? Mmmm, until they then try and take it back through phantom taxes?

Yes BG they can and the BoD expect them to do exactly that - all 20% of it.

Sharehead saying "the license is the key here to unlock everything" is NOT a "fact"- "Seems the Development License is the key catalyst which will crystalise full progress on this massive world class resource" is not a "fact" - "The resource is huge, much bigger than anyone imagined" is not a "fact" - everything is relative the word "huge" is yours, you might think it is huge, and, as some have told us, they expected a find of that size - "Pipeline may be a year away but we have the drills before all that to complete" and it could well be a lot longer than a year and the drills could be just as far away and may not be successful - so you are making statements as "facts" that are not, they are nothing more than opinions or your interpretations.

The only fact that you have claimed as being one so far is "The GSA is signed".

FWIW I have bought more today but let's put things into perspective - there is still a lot yet to be achieved and the timescales quoted never have and never will be something that can be relied upon.

And that is my OPINION and NOT a fact!

I see that sharehead is in full "ramp" mode this morning ;0)

I think the days of "very soon" have already passed!! So yes BG my smile will be a somewhat forced one ;0)

To your very point JerseyCrew, in the latetst interview LB did suggest that they needed a considerable period of time to evaluate what they had found and effectively create the model for the "basin" - that is what will take the time and that is what I, for one, am awaiting. She also stated that they would not hurry this, it would take a long as it takes to get it right. This would be central to coming up with the strategy for commercialisation.

However because what they have found is so "unique" I would be very surprised if they did not conduct more appraisal activity before being in a position to finally conclude their definitive model.

Absolutely Blubay, we have exactly the same view; though that is not to say that it is correct!! ;0)

Well I hope you are right JP but I am sceptical; it may well be perceived to be in the incumbent administration's interests to defer until after the elections but even if not, to get a rig contract in place, deliver the rig and get it set up & approved ahead of a summer drill would not be a slam dunk, even if you assume and accept that they have identified a suitable rig and that it is still available after all these delays.

But anyway, its bedtime for me so goodnight from me.

Jackpack "Then we have chkumbi-1 appraisal well shortly"? Shortly? Q4 (dec) 2024 is my guess for earliest likely date. Not sure that I think that equates to "shortly". So when do you anticipate that occurring?

Frankly, yes, but not much. Why? Because whilst reserves are a huge shift from resources and is a significant hurdle on the road to monetisation it will be some time before the first of those reserves (first three of the 8 well dev programme for Ntorya) will turned into income and many years before the ex-ntorya assets are even explored let alone appraised.

I don't see too many posters "attacking" He1, just a few that are asking perfectly reasonable questions. Questions that any rationale investor might be expected to ask.

Yes, indeed LW, a fair point.

Goodnight all.

I agree with the rationale for late March early April but also think it likely that further appraisal activity will be necessary, or at the least preferable, before understanding the extent and nature of the reserves and committing to a strategy for commercialisation; until they have that strategy they will not know the costs of implementation nor the ultimate rewards and therefore the relative terms of any off-take or JV negotiations.

Don't we all sharehead, don't we all....?

That is certainly a possibility RJ, I cannot deny but you know my feelings on that subject; I am not sure it works as easily as has been suggested and even if so am not sure is is the best option in the longer term, albeit, possibly, the most immediate.

Scott, we share the same opinion regarding the importance for these two metrics and their relevance to the ongoing plan and strategy for commercialisation and JV partner.

LW, that sums up my own views very succinctly. Then next question is, "when will we get it"? Second question "what next"? I have my own views and have already related what they are likely to be. Assuming the first RNS announces a success (highly likely) then will it be a JV next or a fund raise and further development? I think the latter - further success at either Tai3, Itumbula (the more likely) or third choice (equally likely). One, other or any combo of these would be necessary to prove up the "basin" model (I know it is not a traditional basin but do not know how better to describe it!) and put us in a better position for subsequent JV negotiations.

Your view LW?

But RJ , unless I have missed it we don't yet know the flow rate to surface? The BoD might but, as yet, they haven't announced it.