Member Info for CrustyPete

I would tend to agree to a large extent BG and is pretty much what I have been saying and for a while now. I belief though is that without a series of events in close succession there will be the same lack of momentum that we have seen over many years - since the days of $1m a month of Kiliwani income and "back to back drills". That journey to the long awaited day when the market becomes convinced that monetisation will, at last, be delivered is likely to be a "slow burn".

sharehead, it doesn't matter how many times you copy and paste that list "the market" isn't reading it. I wouldn't argue with either your prospective sp multiples (though I think 1000% is well over the top) nor your time scales - indeed I would broadly share that view. The point being, as BG has suggested, the market doesn't operate to timescales of 12 - 18 months but more like 12 - 18 weeks. Once that time horizon gets within range we will start to see the movement you point to. In the intervening period I think we will see a number of spikes when the events you list below play out but most will be sold into and so will be brief, though should create a new higher base line with each event.

Here's hoping.

Bye, until tomorrow .

Anyway sharehead if, as you say, "they have realised it’s a multi bagger" - where the feck are they then and where is their money? Sorry but I haven;t seen it; what evidence is there that "they" have realised that? Or, when you say "they" do you actually just mean "you" and a few other lth's?

RJ - "In saying that it is only a month ago we had the GSA with promise of Dev licence soon which also should have been a catalyst" Exactly that RJ and why wasn't it? Because nobody actually believed the "soon" element of that statement; past performance suggested otherwise. Unfortunately they were absolutely right to mistrust it and the subsequent further delay of the pipeline is yet another example, another nail in the coffin. Better, many might argue, to simply sit on the sidelines and wait for it all to happen before getting involved; yes they might pay a bit more BUT evidence would suggest not much more.... Any institutional investment managers that put money here at any point in the last two years would now have egg on their faces (they would have had better returns from Cash) probably be in a new job and would think twice before doing so again.

That may be the case sharehead and I would not be continuing to hold a few shares myself If I didn't expect that to be the case but, more pertinently, can you tell me when "they" think that might happen? Next week? Next year? Next decade? Because that is what will determine when the serious money starts to arrive and that is what will be needed for that multi bagging to take place.

Sharehead, you say "they have realised it’s a multi bagger " who exactly do you mean by "they"? Presumably the one-eyed. self-interested, BoD sycophants, whose confirmation bias edits everything they read to ensure they absorb only what they want to hear?

The principle benefit of the "condensate" is that ARA/AEX are able to sell it direct to the market at the "market rate", rather than have to sell it to the TPDC directly at well head at a pre-determined price - so it is very profitable; at least taht would be the case if the Ntorya GSA mirrors the same terms as the Kiliwani GSA, which is exactly what the BoD were expecting at the last AGM.

RJ just to restate in summary the CPR / 3D seismic is a great result but many years from monetisation and hence not a hugely price sensitive. The GSA would have been a catalyst if quickly followed up by the 25 Dev License, drill contract, pipeline initiation etc but one without any of the others really does not achieve very much. Moreover the most recent RNS has suggested H1 2025 for pipeline spur so I fear that anything that happens in the interim will be largely ignored until the final piece of the jigsaw is in put place. The only exception to that might be the eventual CH1 drill which could stimulate some excitement.

Any and all of those things that allow us to see the date that we will see the (achievable and definitive) date that will allow us to monetise our gas assets. That is not one event but several; I only hope that the BoD can deliver those in the short term and in quick succession because RJ, as I do not need to tell you, if there is a significant gap between those events many people will sell into any spike (with a view to re-entering later) and sp rises will be transient; we need the momentum that a continuous (positive) newsflow would provide. Yes, CP, you will tell me, but they might miss out and yes RJ, I will say but how many times and how many people have spouted that same narrative over the years, even recent years? And yet here we are in March 2024 and, despite a fantastic upgrade in GIIP, at an sp tat still allows you to buy these shares at a price lower than you could have done in March 2022 when the likes of haggismctripe and others (who I will not name - but know who they are) were exhorting all and sundry to BUY now for FOMO.... some (they know who they are) were even telling us that we should expect 3D seismics soonish and yet even two years later what difference did it make? No surprise to me neither on the delay nor the effect. If we had seen it two years ago, or anytime in between, it might have had a bigger impact but, as you know and we have discussed, the delays have had and will continue to have a serious detrimental impact.

Sorry RJ but I must go - I am going out for the evening and am late!

Everyone, well anyone with more than only one eye, recognises a chancer when they see one and you are that "incarnate".... plenty of hype and very little substance.

As it happens "jamtart"I have never made any prediction about what I thought we would see with the results of the 3D seismic outcome, so you have certainly got that wrong, because more importantly, whatever it was, my view was that it would have very little, if any, impact on the sp (contrary to those telling us all that it would be the pivotal piece of news) and for reasons that I have explained umpteen times both before and since. Did I get that wrong too?

See you all on Monday.

GLA

Well none of us have to worry in the slightest because "jamtart" who assures us that he has never been wrong, tells us, who have never been right, that it will soon be 50p; so we can all retire in extreme comfort and I will be worth about £7.5m on my AEX shares alone....

" speculative reasoning" - call it what you will BG, it holds no water...

Sharehead, you say "This should already be multiples of today’s sp imo". unfortunately as has been shown throughout time immemorial your opinion does not seem to count for very much and neither does mine, or anyone else's.... nor BG's gut feeling for that matter. but hey, ho hum.

Have fun.

RogerMarley now eh? ;0)

Rest assured BG, I a totally calm. Thank you for your concern though.

I hope you have a lovely weekend all xx :0)

Bashers don't care? Nor it seems do rational, balanced long term investors without an agenda or an axe to grind. But then you wouldn't recognise one of those if it smacked you in the face would you?

And see if I care.

And rampers claim opinions and observations as facts...

And rampers don't need to pump a good one... Canudance is the counterpoint to 5085; both irrational zealots for their own self-interested, one-eyed cause.

The only people to profit from this dubious arrangement at any point in the last 3/4 years have been the board - filching it of the pockets of their shareholders. They have fleeced them for just about every penny and should be struck off.

Which is why, amongst many other reasons, they will be looking to commercialise Itumbula as soon as possible - that will dramatically increase the market capitalisation thereby protecting against that dilution and provide cash flow to contribute to ongoing exploration and appraisal costs.

Sorry one and all that should have read 6.60p !! Big difference... apologies yet again.