Member Info for CrustyPete

The paperwork has been at the ministry for months. Some here were telling us that we only needed the SCIR sale to go through and all would be well (as if); all the dominoes would then fall. Then it was the GSA that would trigger the avalanche. What's the hold up now? Honestly, I genuinely would like to know. Without any knowledge of what is causing the hold up how on earth can anyone even proffer an idea of when we might get it?

Pure speculation but I wonder whether it is Tanzania's total lack of US$'s. Do the TPDC have to take up their back-in rights before ARA get the Dev License? And what if they cannot satisfy their obligations for past and future costs of that back-in? And just in advance of a CH1 drill and NT1 & NT2 workovers? Are they delaying the Dev License until they can fund it? It would not be a good look in advance of up and coming elections for the Tanz Authorities to allow Ruvuma JV partners to plough on without the "optics" of Tanzania and their citizens having some skin in the game. Plus they have a pipeline to build and fund; would they want ARA to go ahead with CH1 and re-working only then to be seen as the sole blocker to "production".

I just wonder if the delays are to allow time to enable the TPDC and other Tanz bodies to get their own ducks in a row.

"back to 1.5p"? What planet are you on - it is 1.25 - 30

Until the "delayed trades" show up...

Have you ever heard of delayed trades Crypt? - Just because you cannot see them does not mean that there haven't been a load of sells.

It would seem that ARA and AEX also started to believe that AEX had become the next WEN....!! ;0)

Actually not before time and good news - they can't do any worse than some of the bloody useless outfits we have employed in the past.

I wonder why they need the sp up?

But be warned safpatel, you will have to go back a very long way! But yes I would agree with BG, please do your research and understand what you might be letting yourself in for. Though if you do have some patience and are happy sitting on your shares for a while you should do well - downside minimal, upside good but the wheels turn slowly in Tanzania and the rise will not be a "straight line".

Well, I respect your viewpoint solid; I gues my opinion might change if we knew how much we might get for it and when we might (catastrophes aside) get it back. As RJn says for it to go out "on loan" and get it back by July would mean that it would have to be a "local" rental and there are only two players in town; Noble and ARA. Would the drill meet their requirements? Noble is close and they would not be drilling too deep, so timescales and risk would be limited but would the income be significant? I cannot claim to know.

Only time will tell.

I suggest largely because there seem to be just as many sells above 1 million as buys and with a spread the size it currently is, it is difficult to read anything meaningful into it.

I have no doubt they will look to earn money on the rig at some future date, it is simply the timing that I question - is it worth the risk for a bit of petty cash? And don't look at the headline numbers look at the "profit" versus the risk.

I'm listening solid' but if that is what happens and the bloody thing get's damaged or stuck and the timing of the EWT or appraisal well get's put back another three months there would be a lot of unhappy shareholders and a lot of recrimination. I just don't think it is worth the risk........

I do not believe that the BoD would risk hiring it out with the potential damage and delay that more rig issues might create. They have the lead items on order and the rig is raring to go - that will be for he1 surely? Once the EWT and subsequent appraisal well is complete then and only then will they risk it. At least I bloody hope so!! I would not want the EWT or drill delayed due to them raising $1 -2m for rig hire, for goodness sake they could raise that amount very easily in the market why risk it? what would another 3 months delay cause us all in running costs and more importantly our sp? A bloody lot more than $1-2m...

Magicp - can they risk waiting until after EWT for that that raise? I assumed that the BoD would wait until after Tai3 for that raise, relying on the good news to raise MC and reduce dilution - just as well they didn't in the end otherwise they may never have finished it! Howeve y point i, if the EWT results are not above expectations the amrket might see it as another Tai3 style event, the sp tanks and then the BoD are faced with raising another $10m with the MC backdown at £10m.

Can they, or indeed we afford that? I would not be keen on putting my hand in my pocket for another 70% dilution; indeed as most of my He1 holding is in my SIPP, I might not be able to get in in there....

I do not think that s necesarily true Swervington not least because before you can make claim to having a commercial discovery not only do you need to know how much gas and the flow rate that you have but also the cost of extraction and off-take. As LB stated because this is a oure Helium play it is unique and requires alternative methods for capture and off-take. My assumption is that those conversations are largely to assess how that is to be done, efficiently and cost effectively; they are creatring a new paradigm and that requires the expertise of the off-takers to do that.

The good news is that, as LB stated, it should be low-cost but until they have worked out a solution I suggest no-one knows what the cost might be. If low-enough then even 500 scuffs at 4.7% might be "commercial".

Good afternoon deltalo, I asked you a question earlier today but with there being so many posts I can understand why you might have missed it, so if it's okay with you I will ask it again.

"So deltalo, I would be interested to know if you still believe that we have a flow rate of 500,000 scuffs of pure helium, or do you now concede that it is in fact only 4.7% of that number?"

I think Lorna's interviews today makes it perfectly clear.

So deltalo, I would be interested to know if you still believe that we have a flow rate of 500,000 scuffs of pure helium, or do you now concede that it is 4.7% of that number?

Well RJ my take on the interview was that its imply confirmed what we already knew but really good to have it from the "horses mouth". Still no reason to doubt that we are likely to get a dilution though; that said could not bring myself to it on my hands - bought more at 1.50p a little while go, argh! Do not seem to have the courage of my convictions ;0)

Good luck all.

Oh and in case you are wondering, "yes" is the answer; a couple of those buys this morning were mine ;0)

Well that would suit me if so RJ, though I am now pretty fully loaded, not sure that I need anymore ;0)

BG, yes the pressures were a major issue previously BUT the suggestion at the time was that those pressures could be controlled if they had the necessary casings that allowed them to "vent" the gas (vent being my word not theirs); I think I am right in saying that they have all their long lead items in place which should include those necesar casings (I would hope anyway!). The bigger issue is the composition of the bed rock that they will be drilling into and the depth of the drill though, actually, now that they are now longer targeting the lower Jurassic layers, even that is now less of an issue, so I understand.

Goodnight all.

Oh and Roger, I would disagree that I am more risk averse than you but, actually, that is totally irrelevant; it is the risk tolerance of the off-take CEO that matters and it is not their own money that they will be taking risks with.