Member Info for CrustyPete

Oh and Roger as I think we both agree the official pronouncement and lab results in and of themselves is not earthshattering news, simply confirmation of what most of the market already accepts; the important aspect of it is that is is likely to be the catalyst for more material "commercial" discussions and partnerships.

Just don't be surprised if we have to wait more than a month or more for the first piece of that "jigsaw"...

Indeed Roger I hold a similar opinion but I would not try and dupe potential investors by claiming my opinion to be anything other than exactly that; there is always a chance however remote that for reasons that we cannot yet see it will not be commercial - the Tanzanian authorities might nationalise it!! ;0) - I just think it only fair and reasonable to make that point.

Moreover I do think it will be some little time yet before any official pronouncement is made on the subject - and we all know what happens when people get impatient RJ don't we.

There is every likelihood of it being a commercial find but until such time as it is announced officially to say such as below, purely a matter of opinion and it goes without saying that everyone is entitled to their own opinion; to make such statements as statements of fact is pure snake oil salesmanship...

"This will be a commercial find!!!

In your opinion.

Nothopeful, he can't because there isn't one. Adding 2 & 2 and coming up with 5 - confirmation bias, reading what they want to see - or, more pertinently, what they want you to see and not necessarily what is actually there. Thankfully it convinces no-one.

Deltalo you say "Hold your shares as lab results should confirm the massive find here and that’s when it really does get exciting."

I would not disagree with you but the issue is not if but more so when - not for a few weeks yet in my view; end of March give or take a week or two in my view - what is going to keep the sp up in the meantime? JV perhaps? Maybe but that will not happen until after the lab results. So patience is needed and the AIM market is not known for its patience....

Return the cash and minimise overheads and eventually wind down the Company.

So BG, just to be clear, you are preaching to the converted, I absolutely agree that I hope and expect that ARA will remain a cornerstone investor in AEX and that their original gameplan is still valid BUT that only works if AEX remain operator of their existing and future assets; that is why I questioned the BoD about the validity of their stated non operator strategy and why I reported after the last two AGM's that it is not irreversible, not set in stone. However that ambition would take a big backward step if they are precluded from maintaining the operator status of the Kiliwani license. TW alluded to their wishing to do this but that it was somewhat out of their hands unless they could report demonstrable progress to the TPDC on an annual basis; hence my concerns a expressed below (particularly with the suspension of the 3D work around Kiliwani). The 3D seismic work might have got them through to Ruvuma "production" and thereby the capital necessary to start work on a Kiliwani remediation (unlikely) or new drill programme (subject to those 3D results). The delay in the 3D seismics programme and the deferment of Ruvuma production are two negative hits in that ambition.

All in my opinion of course.

That is exactly right BG - they would not use their own capital if they could avoid it - let AEX shareholders take the risk and fund the costs BUT that only pays off if you can then take the over the operatorship of the asset once it comes good. That only works of AEX are committed to a future of Majority Ownership and Operatorship...... and yes I have discussed this at an AGM with some of the BoD and Sultan Al Ghaithi. A strategy that works for all BUT IF AND ONLY IF shareholders get fair value for their time, money and risk - which is extremely questionable in the Ruvuma deal and shows that you only get treated fairly if you are in a strong bargaining position which, as we all know to our cost, was not the case with Ruvuma.

Oh and one more thing BG, TM also stated that trying to farm out Nyuni was virtually impossible - AEX would have rather given it up, it is now a further, troublesome obligation that they would rather not have.

"Anyway, I see Aminex as a vehicle that the Zubair's can and will use to grow their interests."

How exactly are AEX going to do that if they have a "non-operational" forward strategy - how is it in ARA's interests to have AEX buy a minority stake in any future concessions, when ARA could just as easily do so themselves? Unless AEX has a majority share when the concession hits "gold" they cannot then farm it out and become the operator as they have done in Ruvuma. Executing this strategy relies upon AEX have the majority share in any concession / license and thereby being the "operator" of that license.

Yes BG, as I have stated before I know exactly what you are referring to - I have been at all the AGM's and read all the presentation RNS's etc - but you WERE NOT at the last AGM - nor any other that I am aware of and I am TELLING you that, according to the BoD during an open Q&A session Tom Mackay stated that any and every operator has to report operational progress on an annual basis or show a route to progress and or the wherewithal to achieve it; the reporting for 2023 and 2024 were going to be covered by the 3D seismic - and it has been a bloody long time since AEX have been able to demonstrate that to anyone at Kiliwani.

You can question it all you want and indeed you may be correct BUT what I have stated above is not my invention, it is an honest account of actual events - take or bloody leave it!!

Mj152 - many that have been on this board long enough or were attending the AGMs and EGM's at the time of the Farm-Out will recall that I have long questioned whether, at that time, the board were operating in the interests of their shareholders (as is their principal obligation as directors) or those of our "cornerstone investor" - and I am still not convinced they were at that time. However since the Farm-Out it has to be stated that the BoD are really no longer in control of very much at all (totally passive in Ruvuma and with no working capital at Kiliwani) and if ARA decided that it was in their long term interests to starve AEX into total submission I am sure they could; the AEX board are purely puppets in this interminable game - they do not even have the ability or control to do anything "deliberately" in my view.. However I have absolutely no doubt that ARA are operating in their own and in AEX shareholders best interests and despite the interminable delays this will come good. My only slight concern is that ever wasted month and year erodes shareholder value and it may not be long before we lose the Kiliwani license unless we can get something moving on that project; the Tanzanian authorities are not going to allow us to sit on our hands, doing absolutely nothing indefinitely (despite what BG might have you believe) - and the suspension of any 3D activity in the area will not help out cause.

We need that Ruvuma income to restart operations at Kiliwani or find a partner that will fund it for us - but even then AEX will no longer be an operator of anything and that will be a very sad day - not only will we have become the next WEN but we will then become the next SOLO.... and look what happened to that.

BA it could also be suggested that the Itumbula drill was not as successful as the He1 BoD might have expected to see - if they are drilling in an area with 10.4% natural Helium seepage perhaps they were expecting something better than a measly 4.7%! ;0)

I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago as possible reason that they may look to drill another well in the area as the next "target"....?

I share some of profit jocks thoughts but not for "trading" reasons but simply for practical ones - sp's tend to slide when there is no news for an extended period of time. PJ says "drop back there will be no news until at least beginning of March" - I would agree but even then think that the beginning of March is optimistic IF it is the CPR is what we are waiting for; I think we could be waiting until the end of March or longer for that. If that proves to be the case we could reasonably expect this sp to slide back below 2.0p. Consequently I am rather hoping that we hear some news regarding JV or similar collaborations relating to commercialisation before that CPR drops - though it would be easy to see how that might be unlikely, as one may very well be contingent on the other.

I am one of those so-called lth's - indeed I have been in and out of He1 three times and had been accumulating a quite sizeable quantity (for me) before Tai3 and the subsequent huge dilutions (circa 80%). Thankfully I have managed to "dilute" by a similar similar proportion by increasing my holding by over 400% at 0.25p and 0.21p.

I had always believed that the success or otherwise of my He1 "investment" was always a "Binary" bet - success or total failure based purely on the outcome of (more recently Tai3 and Itumbula). Dilution in a company like He1 is an inevitability but I was taken aback by the scale and the discount of the recent raises and had I not had the liquidity to dilute by a similar proportion would have been outraged.

When the sp went up over 3p two weeks ago I top-sliced thereby leaving me sitting on over 1 million for free - I have since bought more and now hold just under 2 million. I think the risk here has by no means disappeared altogether (there is certainly more dilution to come and whilst not guaranteed to be commercial the recent Itumbula report looks very positive in that regard)BUT as was always been the case for me I always viewed the risk - reward ratio here to be out of balance and in favour of the investor. I also believe that He1 is the best of the Tanzanian Helium plays.

Rojo, you say "An Apache isn't a dog is it crusty?" - well no more so, some might argue, than Aminex is Rojo as, for many, it would be a matter of opinion and not a fact.

Apache...? :0)

"fully funded."?? Really? Fully funded for what? Operating capital until the next dilution is all they are funded for; insufficient capital for a drill, for production, for anything material...... next requirement a JV, Farm-in, death spiral loan, or further fund raise. None of which need be bad news, indeed could and should be very positive (if BoD do a good job in maintaining shareholder value) but to claim they are "fully funded" is at best somewhat disingenuous and worse downright misleading...

"The big clue yesterday was that it all happened the day before supposed entry of the new shares. If they were all going to come on the market and be legitimately sold then you simply wait the one day."

No, sorry that does not follow. If you know you are about to receive shares in the future you can go short at any time beforehand and deliver them once received - a "covered short".

Sorry wonderer I cannot agree with much of what you say below. Yes we now have a GSA - which is extremely important and potentially pivotal but to say "we now have a much faster route to market with the pipeline" is, frankly quite bizarre, a much faster route than what exactly? It was always going to be a pipeline and a pipeline now that is about 18 months behind schedule, that does not smack to me of considerable progress, sorry. Similar with the 3D seismic results and CPR, where oh where is it? Months overdue again. We cannot even blame the Tanzanian authorities for the late delivery of that. The CH1 location has been tweaked - well blow me down, fat lot of good if we are still months / years away from drilling it! Recent RNS? Yes and you have any greater belief in the BoD's timelines issued with the last RNS than with any of the previous false dawns?

As you say wonderer "we have to be realistic about how long these things take in reality." - Indeed so wonderer and I suggest that realism will need to extend quite a bit further yet.

I have been here 15 years and recognise the value of patience; I am convinced our day will come but unlike most here also recognise that the expectations of the more glass half full brigade on this board have far more often that not been sadly unrealistic.

Maybe 2024 will be the year that changes; then again, maybe not.