RE: II Fair Value22 May 2024 08:58
Yes I would agree with you BG they will be ascribed an increased value to those areas that have been appraised and yes I would expect to get the value for the full 3.45TCF. Will NT1, NT2 and, eventually, CH1 be considered sufficient to have "proven up" the whole Ntorya area and the new possible figure of 8TCF? I don't know to be honest but I would be surprised if so. Will we get any more clarity from the CPR? I doubt it as the CPR was initiated before the coming drill for CH1 and hence cannot include any of the new data.
My point though being, to counter stockcheque's assertion, is that having a GIPP estimate, in and off itself, does not immediately add value to the NAV; only through appraisal of the resource can those estimates be proven and thereby attributed a value. Look at the process that AEX has been through with Ntorya to get to where it is today. And even now that "proving up" has not been fully completed (though close, thankfully). The completion of each incremental stage adds "value" - initially minimal value and eventually optimum value but then ,a s we know even that does not translate 100% into the NAV because of various risks involved in getting those assets out of the ground. Risked NAV versus unrisked NAV.
So to suggest that our NAV is about to balloon because of the 16TCF attributed to the wider Ruvuma acreage, is more than just a little premature methinks. Will we soon see the "value" of the supposed 8TCF (or what it eventually proves to be in the CPR) attributed to the Ntorya basin in our reported NAV - yes very likely but what will the unrisked figure be and will that figure be for the whole of the Ntorya basin without further appraisal or will that figure only be fully reflected after further appraisal drills (certainly for those new "sand layers"). I would expect it to be a gradual process and I doubt the CH1 drill will be sufficient on its own.
Must dash BG - I have a call to make and then a train to catch.